GOLD → The calm (consolidation) before the storm ⚡︎

8 Feb 2024

XAUUSD closes Wednesday's session with a minimal range of motion. The market is getting tighter and tighter every day, volatility as well as volumes are decreasing. The calm before the storm.



Today, at 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims are published, at this time the dollar in the correction phase is testing the consolidation area and in all likelihood may strengthen if the market supports the index.
Gold makes a false break of the resistance area 2039-2042 and forms a consolidation in a narrow range in the phase of waiting for news. Technically, the market continues to stand still. On D1 there is a global flat, but the borders of a symmetrical triangle are present, volatility is decreasing and the range is narrowing. It is interesting that trading volumes are decreasing, but the profile shows a different situation. The market is consolidating liquidity, because at the moment investors do not know what to expect and in the medium term they are aiming to hear some news about the interest rate reduction. Such consolidation may continue until March-April. But the distribution in one side or the other will be very strong, but when it will happen, nobody knows yet :)

Resistance levels: 2039, 2042, 2048
Support levels: 2029, 2016, 2004

There is a chance to see bullish news for the dollar today, which could negatively, within a range, affect gold. But, before a possible fall, the price of the metal may test the resistance

DXY GOLD GC1! MGC1!

Regards R. Linda!

8 Feb 2024

Nota

At 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims is published, which is the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week. This is the earliest US economic data available

A higher than expected reading should be negative for the dollar.
A lower than expected reading should be positive for the USD.

Analysts are expecting the data to be at about the same level as last week: 221K / 224K
Based on last week's data, it is more likely that the reading could be lower as the regulators have an interest in lowering the reading for the better as last Friday's NFP showed a relatively record high for the last few months.

Also being published today:
18:00 GMT - 30-Year Bond Auction
18:00 GMT - Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)
21:30 GMT - Fed's Balance Sheet

8 Feb 2024

Nota

Initial Jobless Claims about the same level, but more positive than before
The dollar continues to rise
Gold tests 2020

8 Feb 2024

Nota

We were ready to see positive news for the US market
This happened on the back of lower than expected Initial Jobless Claims

Gold is declining from the resistance area, after the previously formed false breakdown, to the local low of 2020 and gives us a result of almost 200 pips.