Pay attention to Powell's statement, GOLD corrects and recovers

1 Okt

XAUUSD There were 2 consecutive sessions of price decline at the end of last month, mainly due to profit-taking activities without affecting the uptrend both fundamentally and technically.
From a monthly perspective, gold prices rose more than 6% in September, reaching a peak of $2,685.42 last Thursday, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut, stimulus measures China's preferences and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Today (Tuesday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech at the National Association of Business Economics, which is expected to cause violent fluctuations in gold prices. Gold traders will pay close attention to Powell's comments for further information on the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy.

• If Powell signals a stronger interest rate cut, gold prices will certainly have to be pushed higher, because lower interest rates often reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making them more attractive to investors.
• However, if Powell is cautious and signals a slower pace of interest rate cuts, gold may face downward pressure.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 36.7% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November.

In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, which has supported gold prices.
Over the weekend, Israel continued to attack Lebanon and claimed to have killed a senior figure of Hezbollah following the murder of the organization's leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iran, which backs the powerful rebel group, vowed to fight back and noted that Nasrallah's killing "will not go unanswered".

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold's downside correction, it recovered from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the current corrections still do not affect the main technical trend.

The short-term uptrend is noticeable because the price channel remains stable, and as long as gold remains in the price channel, its short-term trend and outlook are still bullish.

In addition, if gold breaks above the 2,645 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will have room to increase further with the goal of returning to the 2,672 USD area. This means that $2,645 is the closest resistance currently.

During the day, the technical bullish outlook remains unchanged and notable levels are listed again as follows.
Support: 2,624 – 2,610 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,645 – 2,650USD


SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2674⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2780

→Take Profit 1 2669
↨
→Take Profit 2 2664

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2590

→Take Profit 1 2601
↨
→Take Profit 2 2606

1 Okt

Nota

World gold price recorded a slight increase of 2,636 USD/ounce, showing a recovery compared to the previous session. In the previous trading session, the price dropped to 2,629.5 USD/ounce due to pressure from signals of a moderate pace in the Fed's next interest rate easing cycle.

2 Okt

Nota

- DXY broke out of the Wedge pattern and closed above EMA21, showing a possible recovery from the previous downtrend.
- DXY could continue its upward momentum to retest 102.56 if the index breaks above 101.77 coinciding with the downtrend line.

2 Okt

Nota

2 Okt

Nota

ADP Employment change data are typically released two days before the official NFP report, which is also considered a preliminary indicator of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report. Job market data has become the focus of attention recently due to its growing impact on the Fed's latest monetary policy decisions.

2 Okt

Nota

Gold adjusted to fall deeply below 2,650 USD/oz

After soaring above 2,660 USD/oz due to Israel's threat of "retaliation" against Iran, gold prices have now dropped more than 150 pips to 2,648 USD/oz.

3 Okt

Nota

At the end of the trading session on October 2, the spot gold contract dropped 0.5% to 2,649.41 USD/oz. Gold prices rose more than 1% on October 1 after Iran launched missiles to attack Israel.

3 Okt

Nota

Gold prices traded with a downtrend for the second day in a row as the USD strengthened.
Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November were pushed back, helping the USD rise to its highest level in weeks.
Geopolitical risks continue to act as a driving force to limit XAU/USD's decline.

3 Okt

Nota

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) US services PMI rose 3.4 points to 54.9 last month. The new orders index increased 6.4 points to its highest level since the beginning of 2023. The above data shows that the US economy is still quite solid at the end of the third quarter. Treasury yields and the S&P 500 index rose following the figures.

4 Okt

Nota

At the end of the trading session on October 3, the spot gold contract was almost flat at 2,657.89 USD/oz, after reaching a record high of 2,685.42 USD/oz.

4 Okt

Nota

- According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.50% has decreased to 34.6% from more than 57% last week. Market participants will monitor today's Nonfarm Payrolls release to further assess this possibility.
- XAUUSD recently consolidated in the 2.640-2.685 range

5 Okt

Nota

At the end of the trading session on October 4, the spot gold contract retreated 0.3% to 2,647.52 USD/oz, after reaching a record high of 2,685.42 USD/oz last week. Gold futures contracts lost 0.5% to 2,666.60 USD/oz.

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, further reducing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates by 0.5% at its November 6-7 policy meeting.

6 Okt

Nota

In the context of rising global debt and instability, gold remains the only asset that does not carry third-party risks and does not come with geopolitical risks. These are the two main reasons why major central banks continuously hoard gold.

The strong payroll report seems to have made investors certain of a cut of 25 basis points (0.25%) instead of 50 basis points. Prices have declined in the short term, but optimism remains for gold.