Gold geopolitical conflict and technical game
Since June 12, the conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated. Israel's air strikes have damaged Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran subsequently responded with missile attacks, pushing up geopolitical risk concerns. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has significantly increased its appeal. However, gold prices saw a technical correction on Monday, mainly because some investors chose to take profits. Although the Iranian foreign minister released a signal of easing, Trump's related remarks have increased uncertainty, and the subsequent development of the conflict will become a key factor affecting gold prices in the short term.
Market review and market analysis
Gold once surged after opening on Monday, refreshing its recent high to $3,452, but then unexpectedly fell sharply, falling more than $70 to $3,383 during the session, showing a typical "buy expectations, sell facts" market. This trend shows that the market's immediate response to geopolitical risks has been partially digested, and technical adjustment pressure is dominant.
From a technical perspective:
On the daily level, gold prices continued to strengthen after breaking through key resistance last Wednesday, but fell under pressure after a rapid surge, forming a long upper shadow, indicating high selling pressure. At present, we need to pay attention to the support of $3356 (daily watershed). If it falls below, it may further step back to the lower edge of the oscillation range.
The four-hour level of $3417-3420 area has turned from previous support to key resistance. If the rebound cannot break through, the short-term bearish pattern will continue.
The one-hour level rebound high of $3405.5 in the early morning constitutes short-term resistance. It was repeatedly tested near $3410 during the European session but failed to rebound effectively, indicating that the support strength has weakened.
Operation strategy
Based on the technical pressure and the fact that geopolitical risks have not further intensified, it is recommended to focus on rebounding high altitude:
Entry position: around $3400-3405
Stop loss: $3415 (guard against sudden news stimulating breakthrough resistance)
Target: $3350 (daily support and callback key position)
Risk warning
The current gold market is driven by both geopolitics and technical aspects, and we need to be alert to the following risks:
If the conflict escalates again, safe-haven buying may push gold prices to break through resistance, and short orders need to strictly stop losses.
If the situation in Iran eases or the US dollar strengthens, the gold price may accelerate its correction to below $3,350.
Conclusion: In the short term, gold tends to fluctuate and correct. In terms of operation, it is necessary to combine technical resistance and news dynamics to respond flexibly to avoid one-way pursuit of gains and losses.
Since June 12, the conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated. Israel's air strikes have damaged Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran subsequently responded with missile attacks, pushing up geopolitical risk concerns. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has significantly increased its appeal. However, gold prices saw a technical correction on Monday, mainly because some investors chose to take profits. Although the Iranian foreign minister released a signal of easing, Trump's related remarks have increased uncertainty, and the subsequent development of the conflict will become a key factor affecting gold prices in the short term.
Market review and market analysis
Gold once surged after opening on Monday, refreshing its recent high to $3,452, but then unexpectedly fell sharply, falling more than $70 to $3,383 during the session, showing a typical "buy expectations, sell facts" market. This trend shows that the market's immediate response to geopolitical risks has been partially digested, and technical adjustment pressure is dominant.
From a technical perspective:
On the daily level, gold prices continued to strengthen after breaking through key resistance last Wednesday, but fell under pressure after a rapid surge, forming a long upper shadow, indicating high selling pressure. At present, we need to pay attention to the support of $3356 (daily watershed). If it falls below, it may further step back to the lower edge of the oscillation range.
The four-hour level of $3417-3420 area has turned from previous support to key resistance. If the rebound cannot break through, the short-term bearish pattern will continue.
The one-hour level rebound high of $3405.5 in the early morning constitutes short-term resistance. It was repeatedly tested near $3410 during the European session but failed to rebound effectively, indicating that the support strength has weakened.
Operation strategy
Based on the technical pressure and the fact that geopolitical risks have not further intensified, it is recommended to focus on rebounding high altitude:
Entry position: around $3400-3405
Stop loss: $3415 (guard against sudden news stimulating breakthrough resistance)
Target: $3350 (daily support and callback key position)
Risk warning
The current gold market is driven by both geopolitics and technical aspects, and we need to be alert to the following risks:
If the conflict escalates again, safe-haven buying may push gold prices to break through resistance, and short orders need to strictly stop losses.
If the situation in Iran eases or the US dollar strengthens, the gold price may accelerate its correction to below $3,350.
Conclusion: In the short term, gold tends to fluctuate and correct. In terms of operation, it is necessary to combine technical resistance and news dynamics to respond flexibly to avoid one-way pursuit of gains and losses.
Dagangan aktif
Gold is currently in a short adjustment phase, but the overall direction still maintains the expectation of falling first and then rising. The key time window for the bulls to counterattack is expected to be from Wednesday to Friday (European and American trading sessions). Today's market is still dominated by oscillating downwards, and it is necessary to wait for stabilization signals.
Key price analysis
Short-term resistance: US$3393 (upper track of the 4-hour downward channel & today's European trading high)
If the US market cannot break through and stand firm at this position, it is confirmed that the weakness continues and short selling can continue.
Short order strategy: 3385-3390 area light position short test, stop loss 3395, target 3370-3365.
Lower support: 3370 / 3360
If it quickly drops to around 3360 (or lower 3350-3355 area), it is considered a long layout opportunity.
Long order strategy: build positions in batches in the 3355-3360 area, stop loss 3345, target 3380-3400 (breakthrough and hold).
Operation logic
Short-term: short-term momentum has not been exhausted, and the rebound is weak, so go high.
Medium-term: 3350-3360 is a strong support area, and it is expected to start a new round of rise after stabilization.
Risk warning
If the US market unexpectedly breaks through 3393 and stabilizes, be alert to the failure of short orders and wait and see. Focus on the long start signal during the European and American sessions tomorrow and the next two days.
Conclusion: Go short first and then long today, strictly control risk, and wait for trend confirmation.
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
At the opening of the Asian session, I made an analysis of today's market in advance! And then I took action. The market is running as expected. Today, I also trade around the long-short dividing point of 3400-3405. The gold price forms a narrow weak consolidation in the short term. The high point moves down slowly, with the lowest point of 3375. I participated in 6 transactions today and successfully sniped 540 points.
Free Signals:t.me/+CXftl_-QHEo2Yzc0
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Free Signals:t.me/+CXftl_-QHEo2Yzc0
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.