Gold 40 Day peak likely in, trading move to the 40 Day Trough.

13 Apr 2020

(TROUGH BASED ANALYSIS)
We can see a rising wedge in price action as well as the RSI, pointing to the 40 day peak being established and we should now be moving towards the 40 Day trough. Today we are 28 days into the cycle which makes the 40 Day trough imminent.

20 day FLD has a median price of 1631.24(Cross point) for 14.04.2020, if the pivot Point is todays high(as of now) of 1691.29, this gives us a target of 1571.19 for the 40 Day trough.

10 day FLD has a median price of 1649.21, if the same pivot point of 1691.29 is taken, target is 1606.93 for the 40 Day trough.

Placing an Entry based on the most recent horizontal price support of 1640 (rounded off) and Aiming for the target based on the 20 day FLD ie 1571.19 (Being the True Cycle Target).
While the First Target will be around the Target given but the 10 Day FLD and The second Target will be the True Cycle Target based on
Day FLD (As In trading the 80 Day Cycle)

The broader trend is up (considering the trough analysis), I've marked the 18 month trough on 16th of March, and if this is the case, we can expect the True cycle target to maybe missed by a few point so have to stand gaurd to book profits!


Note : these targets are based on price action of Alpari International (my broker) and not Oanda, the chart you see above.

14 Apr 2020

Dagangan ditutup secara manual

I am of the opinion that gold is an instrument which is synchronized at its peak rather than troughs. I don't know how many times will I fall for a setup where I convince myself that a particular cycle active in the gold market should be traded considering the toughs rather than peaks and most of the times I am wrong, like the above analysis. The beauty of trading using hurst cycles is the that whenever you are wrong you end up with a trade order that does not get trigger. So you end up missing out on the move rather than losing money. With more experience in this hustle it's pretty clear to me that, it's not about being right, its about making money.

I'll post the peak analysis which Iam tracking and it seems to be working ok.

14 Apr 2020

Nota

The above analysis is not wrong per say in the context Ive posted above as we can still have a 40 day trough ahead of us as we are only 29 days into the cycle if measured from the trough. However the long term phasing needs to be adjusted.
but rather than doing that I'll trade on the basis of peak analysis as it works well most of the times.

14 Apr 2020

Nota

Trough Analysis Again! (I am a hurst fan boy so I like to stick to the troughs as much as I can)

I reckon the 18 month trough which I have phased on the 16th of march can be phased on 20th of march as well( This confusion was because the lows of 16th and the 20th are very near)

This would mean we are only 24 days into the 40 day cycle and the 40 Day trough is a head of us. As we might be bouncing out of a large magnitude trough, 18 month possibly, we can expect the cycles to contract, so the trough should be registered in next 5-7 days

The phasing of trough on 16th march is not ruled out, we should track the cycle length from both points and see which one one works better with time to come.

Note : if one is shorting. the trend seems to be up so shorting should be done with caution and relatively small position size.

PS : I'll post my peak analysis in a separate Idea, Lets trade together :)

17 Apr 2020

Dagangan aktif

Short Triggered at 1705, True cycle target for the Trough, obtained from 10 day FLD is 1635

20 Apr 2020

Nota

Everything seems in place as of now.

Price has now crossed the 20 Day FLD which is giving a target of 1618.64 for the 40 Day Trough.
I am already in a trade based on the 10 Day FLD with Target mentioned above, will see how the price behaves when the time come, Expecting the trough to form in the next 2 Days.

20 Apr 2020

Nota

Peak Analysis

Price has crossed the 10 Day FLD which is giving the target of 1618.64 ( same as the target generated by the 20 Day FLD based on through Analysis)

20 Day FLD has not yet been crossed, tomorrow's FLD median position is 1667.11, if crossed tomorrow, it will generate even lower targets of around 1586.84

I am sticking with the trough analysis for now.

21 Apr 2020

Nota

First Target hit at 1660.95, moving SL slightly below the Entry Price of 1703. Price seem resilient, and the trough might as well be in on account of the overall strong underlying trend to the up side, protect profits!

22 Apr 2020

Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai

As warned while entering, the underlying trend was up so It was always possible the true cycle to fall short. Made a small profit with T1 being met and SL hitting 2 points above the entry price. I consider this a win while trading against the trend!

Will publish a new Idea with new targets!