Emas Semerta / Dolar A.S.Panjang
MQP INFINITE REGRESSION #004-10, 8/3-8/27 CHANNEL & UPDATE
HERE IS WHAT I KNOW NOW:
1. Regression fractals are calling for 8/27-8/30 top.
2. Intermediate parallel channels are also calling for 8/26-9/1 TOP.
3. Jackson Hole conference is 8/28 (SATURDAY).
4. Bets on FED hawks/tapering/real rates spike late August/early September have been building for half a year.
5. VIX 50 calls expiring AFTER Jackson hole are catching a bid.
6. I would imagine that option delta ES/SPX/SPY puts expiring after 8/28 would clarify this, BUT HAVE NOT LOOKED.
7. Every and all angles of regressions I look at point to 1950 by 8/20, and 2070 by 9/6.
8. GDX doesn't look as good as it it did 2 weeks ag, showing erratic and weaker August spike, but doesn't disagree with gold thesis.
9. Yet GDX call options are meaningfully more expensive than GLD (GDX 40% spike pays less than GLD 15% spike.
10. Meaning August/Sep calls for GDX 40% spike pays LESS THAN GLD 15% SPIKE.
11. In this chart, buy blue and sell red boxes.
12. the lighter of two highlighted paths is the underdog, but can't be ruled out.
13. If you are not using leverage, 7/30 -8/5 are strong entries.
14. No more time, will update in #004-11.
1. Regression fractals are calling for 8/27-8/30 top.
2. Intermediate parallel channels are also calling for 8/26-9/1 TOP.
3. Jackson Hole conference is 8/28 (SATURDAY).
4. Bets on FED hawks/tapering/real rates spike late August/early September have been building for half a year.
5. VIX 50 calls expiring AFTER Jackson hole are catching a bid.
6. I would imagine that option delta ES/SPX/SPY puts expiring after 8/28 would clarify this, BUT HAVE NOT LOOKED.
7. Every and all angles of regressions I look at point to 1950 by 8/20, and 2070 by 9/6.
8. GDX doesn't look as good as it it did 2 weeks ag, showing erratic and weaker August spike, but doesn't disagree with gold thesis.
9. Yet GDX call options are meaningfully more expensive than GLD (GDX 40% spike pays less than GLD 15% spike.
10. Meaning August/Sep calls for GDX 40% spike pays LESS THAN GLD 15% SPIKE.
11. In this chart, buy blue and sell red boxes.
12. the lighter of two highlighted paths is the underdog, but can't be ruled out.
13. If you are not using leverage, 7/30 -8/5 are strong entries.
14. No more time, will update in #004-11.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.