Gold USD Trading Strategy with Probability Rate

1 Jul

XAUUSD
Bullish Scenario (60% Probability):
Wait for Pullback and Confirmation:
Wait for the price to pull back to the 2320 USD support level or lower.
Look for bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing, pin bar) at or near the 2320 USD support level.
Enter a long position on a confirmed pullback to 2320 USD with bullish confirmation.
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss slightly below the 2320 USD support level to limit potential losses (e.g., 2318 USD).
Targets:
First Target: 2330 USD (immediate resistance level).
Second Target: 2340 USD (key resistance level).
Further Target: 2350 USD (additional resistance level).

Bearish Scenario (40% Probability):

Wait for Breakdown and Confirmation:
If the price breaks below 2320 USD, wait for it to pull back to this level and fail to hold.
Look for bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing) at or near the 2320 USD level, confirmed by increasing volume.
Entry Point:
Enter a short position if the price breaks below 2320 USD and fails to hold on the retest.
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss slightly above the 2320 USD resistance level to limit potential losses (e.g., 2322 USD).
Targets:
First Target: 2310 USD (next support level).
Second Target: 2300 USD (additional support level).
Further Target: 2272 USD (main target for bearish scenario).
Immediate Action Plan:
If Bullish Pullback is Confirmed at 2320 USD:

Probability: 60%
Enter a long position.
Set first target at 2330 USD and second target at 2340 USD.
Consider further target at 2350 USD.
If Bearish Breakdown is Confirmed Below 2320 USD:

Probability: 40%
Enter a short position.
Set first target at 2310 USD and second target at 2300 USD.
Consider further target at 2272 USD.

1 Jul

Nota

2319.5. A very limited drawdown of 50 pips during a Sell side sweep.
Price action hovering around Target 1 2329-2330 achieving 1000 pips

1 Jul

Dagangan aktif

Now above Target 1. 2332 expected to be a price area to cross over. Once above that pivot point high, 2340 to be easier to reach

1 Jul

Dagangan aktif

In case of rejection at the $2337 pivot point high I'll wait for a pullback to $2328.5 support zone to add position

1 Jul

Dagangan aktif

Rejection slightly above at $2338. Support zone from $2329

1 Jul

Dagangan ditutup secara manual

Comment:
The liquidity void created by the sharp pullback from $2338 is making a negative modification of the market structure.
The pullback from $2325 night be temporary. A hedge is looking the 1800 pips profit of the today's strategy and I am closing it waiting for a more stable environment 😄