3RD PREPWORK FOR 01/10-15 RALLY
SUMMARY - I have said since May of 2022 that January 10th to March 8th of 2024 would be the last window for a gold bull market breakout. It's 12:05 AM 01/04/24, counting the weekend, we are less than 6 days from 01/10 entry date. This is what regression mapping says now.
DETAILS - I've already completed my entry earlier today around 2034. I did so because the range of outcomes from regression mapping have shrunk considerably after the the drop to 2030 with odds favoring price being at or very close to the theoretical floor. I keep saying 01/10 is the entry date. That is still true for the average trader. 01/10 is my "maximize leverage" date. For chart above, blue is favored over yellow, but price will more likely do a mix of both. The overall cycle remains the same, the top should be Monday night, Tuesday AM if late, with last check down to 01/10 at 2055.
DETAILS - I've already completed my entry earlier today around 2034. I did so because the range of outcomes from regression mapping have shrunk considerably after the the drop to 2030 with odds favoring price being at or very close to the theoretical floor. I keep saying 01/10 is the entry date. That is still true for the average trader. 01/10 is my "maximize leverage" date. For chart above, blue is favored over yellow, but price will more likely do a mix of both. The overall cycle remains the same, the top should be Monday night, Tuesday AM if late, with last check down to 01/10 at 2055.
Nota
I GET THIS QUESTION OFTEN SO: Nota
1/04, 2:47 AM ET 2048.XXa) overall picture say we trace here until ADP and rebound up again to 2067 tomorrow night
b) that said, the only thing stopping price from 2072 is 2057
c) and after scratching 2049, that's not impossible, still an underdog vs retrace here to 2038 ahead of ADP
Nota
01/04, 11:27 AM ET, 2046.XX, BLUE VS YELLOW HI-LIGHTSa) in chart at top, price is at a tough spot right now trend wise for 2, 4, 8-min bars
b) if it follows yellow route from here, that is good and in realm of expected bullish outcomes
c) but every now and then I read some column calling for 10-15k gold by end of 2025
d) that is silly to say bc it's such a huge number for such a short time
e) they don't quite understand what a 100% set up look like and 200% set up look like
f) to sum it up, if bulls are REALLY STRONG, they take blue route here, to 2057
g) and then reach for 2067 and get rejected (all of this ahead of NFP)
h) why does that matter?
i) because - in this situation - that' is the "setup required" for NFP's reaction to ...
j) break the triangle (to build a REALLY STRONG break out setup)
l) like this:
Nota
m) in chart above, there's the two ways you achieve that outcome
n) if you follow blue route, your odds of achieving that outcome is like 4X compared to yellow outcome breaking the triangle
o) why is that so important?
p) if you take blue route the way that the trends organize make 2360 a legit target 01/24
q) if you don't, it's hard to see how we past 2270 for 01/24
r) this in turn affects MARCH 8 targets and gold is notorious for retracing
s) if they understood anything about trend IT'S HARD TO ENTERTAIN A NUMBER ABOVE 3600 for end of 2025
Nota
t) here's the view from 10-min bars of the wave that is forcing price to follow yellow route in the chart at the topu) if you can't even override that to build an optimal break out here...
v) how can you be talking about anything above 2200?
w) silly AF
Nota
X) 12:;21 PM, so in that sense, here is next 24 hours range (as of right now) Nota
y) in chart above, the lighter ones are from CHART AT TOPNota
2:52 PM 2044.59 WE NEED PRICE TO MOVE TO 2057 AND HOLD UNTIL NFPa) intermediate curves are late now
b) so price need to make this move to hold trend
c) so what if it doesn"t
d) so NFP does not have a 40 pt spike setup
e) so if we don't move now, and wait until NFP
f) the turn won't be fast enough
g) and that means shape of rally will change significantly
h) into the type I hate the most
i) I'll deal with this after NFP
Nota
j) FWIW, blue is what we want, yellow is just 5 big zig zags; Nota
4:47 PM Price is announcing it won't move early, in fact will do the reverse and swing down first to 2036 or maybe even 2033. So that makes it looks like this now:a) for chart above, not that it can't move to 57 first over night...
b) but the pattern is a sticky one
c) this is with 4 trading days to night of 01/10 where I press the leverage
Nota
6:12 PM 2044.27a) next four hours is the weak zone....
b) if no check down in this zone
c) then sideways to 51 until morning
Nota
d) more like 6 hours so let's say midnighte) especially if price can't break 2045
Nota
8:11 PM ET 2047.XX ODDS of check down now disappearinga) this opens up 51, 57 overnight
b) but NFP CHECK DOWN STILL ON before 2064
Nota
1:43 AM ET 2041.XX a) if 2041 breaks here then we're back to same scenario as earlier tonight
b) only except slower
c) this pattern would push all the way down again to 2033-36 and spike at NFP
d) if it doesn't break, it would be 51 max then 2038 again at NFP before spiking
e) at this point, same difference bc neither time or price figures are wide enough to give us a "smooth ride" from 01/10-01/24
f) so after Monday'/Tuesday high, we need new strategy
Nota
01/05 3:05 AM ET 2043.XX NFP SPIKE STATSa) there's two way to look at this move
b) if we count baseline setup only, there's only 30 max, and 10 of that is swing ...
c) meaning at 2043, it would move to 2033 and spike and 30 to 2063
d) if you count the totality of all trends under a year, then the spike should top at 2080
e) but when "this type of math" only works when it works, and it usually doesn't work
f) meaning we can't expect more than 2063 but if you do see 2080, it is within reason
g) tagging 2080 would still be too late to save "the smooth ride" between 01/10-01/24
h) so we have a super bullish posture, from here to mid-March
i) but unless there's another surprise next Mon-Tues, trend setup is implying high 2-way vol
Nota
8:17 AM ET, 13 min to NFP... 2040.xxa) regression fractals do say that 2077 should get hit by noon
b) and I agree with that here bc the fractals are not as strong as our situation now
c) but you dont know until you know
d) anyway, before this massive run from January to March, there needs to be a "get in position move"
e) why?
f) because there always is before these things
g) and they take about 4-6 days to complete
h) as of right now, we STILL DONT HAVE THAT MOVE
Nota
i) and I started this thing with some lead way too....j) so my plan for January 10-15 rally is starting to look like 11-16 or 12-17
k) if we don't tag 2077 today and close around there...
l) those dates start moving
Nota
9:02 AM 2043 after furious drop and stick save... a) I put in a massive 0DTE straddle while vol was hot to make sure I don't lose today
b) I'm still long main position but I need a reason to stay long
c) the map still says up, but price is fact so I have a live stop while I watch it
Nota
9:30 AM ET 2047.xx getting ready to have some leverage ona) for all of January
b) expecting some more 2-way vol bc NY just opened
Nota
c) 10:00 AM, 2054.xx leverage on right on time d) so now that we are 2054, a 67 close is reasonable,
e) 2077 still on the table, but I don't know how much 2-way vol is involved before we get there
f) all the regressions under 6 hours need to reset and that's about how much time we have left today
Nota
01/05 FRIDAY WRAP UP: a) 10:31 AM ET 2060.XX from almost 64 in the last 30 min...
b) I still see 2077 before the day's over
c) we don't have to close there
d) we can close anywhere 2064-2082
e) but if we tag and close high, we are still on for 01/10-01/15 RALLY
f) I've said this a couple times before but clarify again
g) FOR THE AVERAGE TRADER, 01/10 is your entry date
h) for me it's different bc I have software, six screens, experience and usually 80-90% cash to handle days like this one....
i) I gotta but that warning back in the beginning of the post
j) take it out and see what happens?
k) have a good weekend
Nota
l) and finally:Dagangan aktif
m) at the top in the DETAILS section, I even said FOR THE AVERAGE TRADER 01/10 IS YOUR ENTRY ...n) if you aren't prepared for a day like this with real risk on, you are AN AVERAGE TRADER
THIS POST HAS ENDED.
Nota
H'E'RE IS ENTRY FOR 01/24:
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