Possible H&S Forming – It’s All About the News Now

24 Apr

XAUUSD

📉 Watching closely: Possible Head and Shoulders formation developing on the 4H and 1H charts

As of April 24, 2025, Gold (XAU/USD) is forming a potential Head and Shoulders pattern on the shorter timeframes (4H and 1H), which could indicate a reversal setup. While multiple scenarios are still in play, the price action around the $3368 level will be crucial.

If price fails to break above this resistance in the near term, it could suggest weak bullish momentum and open the door for a pullback toward and possibly below the neckline around $3250.

🔔 Key Economic Events – April 24

• 08:30 EDT – Durable Goods Orders MoM
  

Forecast: +2.0%
Personal outlook: Numbers might come in weaker than forecasted.

Durable goods orders are a solid gauge of industrial demand. Weaker-than-expected numbers would likely weaken the USD and could offer some upside pressure on Gold.

• 10:00 EDT – Existing Home Sales
  

Forecast: Lower than previous.

As a key barometer of consumer confidence and economic stability, lower-than-expected figures could also put pressure on the USD, potentially providing Gold a short-term bullish impulse.

📊 Potential Scenarios

Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout

Weak economic data → USD weakens → Gold spikes above $3400
If both data points disappoint, we could see a rally in Gold, possibly breaking the resistance and invalidating the H&S pattern.

Scenario 2 – Bearish Breakdown (Preferred H&S Scenario)

Strong data → USD strengthens → Gold falls below $3200
While less likely, if economic data comes in stronger than forecasted, Gold could see a significant drop, forming the right shoulder and breaking the neckline – confirming the Head & Shoulders reversal.

Scenario 3 – Sideways Movement

Neutral data + Tariff talks in focus
In the absence of impactful data or if figures come in as expected, Gold might consolidate sideways. Ongoing developments around US-China tariff negotiations could dominate sentiment, delaying or nullifying the H&S pattern entirely.

📉 Market Sentiment Snapshot

US stocks are rallying on optimism around tariff reductions

Trump administration signaling potential easing of China tariffs

➡️ Gold under pressure as risk-on sentiment rises

📍 Conclusion

Keep an eye on the $3368 level and $3250 neckline. Short-term moves will likely be dictated by today’s economic releases and the evolving trade narrative. A confirmed break below the neckline would validate the bearish H&S scenario with potential downside toward $3200 and below.

👉 Stay nimble and trade the reaction, not just the forecast.
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.

Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊

24 Apr

Dagangan aktif

Durable Goods Mom forcast 2 actual is 9.2 !!!

Gold going downward, taking short right now expecting $3200

24 Apr

Dagangan ditutup secara manual

Today’s trade was successful and ended in profit on the short side down to $3307, even though that wasn’t my original target.

Perhaps recent days have made me expect further downside due to ongoing news. However, price action around $3306 held the support level.

In this scenario, a Head & Shoulders pattern is still possible, but it would require an entry near the neckline around $3248. Everything now depends on upcoming news regarding tariffs, war, or economic data releases.

25 Apr

Nota

Beautiful or? It is just a matter of time but it is coming.