GOLD - Will FOMC and Tariff Talks Decide the Next Big Move?

💥 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOK – Will FOMC and Tariff Talks Decide the Next Big Move?
As we head into a critical trading week, gold is at a crossroads, navigating through conflicting macro signals and important structural levels. Last week’s developments — ranging from strong US NFP data to China’s unexpected 40B tariff waiver — have significantly reshaped sentiment in the precious metals market.

🌐 Macro Backdrop – Shift in Global Risk Tone
🔹 China’s Tariff Waiver on selected US goods hints at improving trade ties. This eases geopolitical risks and reduces the urgency for safe-haven assets like gold.

🔹 Stronger-than-expected NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) further solidifies a hawkish bias for the Fed. A robust labor market may push the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer.

🔹 DXY & Bond Yields are holding firm. A stronger USD and rising yields typically weigh on gold — unless major risks re-emerge.

📌 FOMC Meeting This Week – Traders are now watching the Fed’s next move closely. Any dovish tone could fuel gold’s rebound. A surprise hawkish tone? Expect further selloffs.

🔍 Technical Landscape (H4 + Daily Focus)
Gold is currently forming a descending wedge pattern, with lower highs and solid support holding around the 3,224 – 3,204 zone.

Last week’s rejection at the 3,277 resistance aligns with macro-driven selling pressure. However, price continues to respect key Fibonacci levels and internal trendline dynamics, suggesting a potential for large breakout movement after FOMC.

🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
3,240
3,250
3,264
3,277
3,311

🔻 Key Support Levels:
3,224
3,210
3,204

🎯 Trade Plan – Week of May 6th, 2025
🔵 BUY ZONE A: 3,204 – 3,202
SL: 3,198
TP: 3,208 → 3,212 → 3,216 → 3,220 → 3,225 → 3,230

🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,276 – 3,278
SL: 3,282
TP: 3,272 → 3,268 → 3,264 → 3,260 → 3,250 → 3,240

⚠️ Key Risks to Monitor This Week:
🏛 FOMC Statement & Powell’s Press Conference
→ Any hint of rate cuts = Gold bullish
→ Any reaffirmation of higher for longer = More downside

💼 Trade Developments (US–China)
→ Further easing of tariffs = Negative for gold
→ Any new friction = Potential rebound

📉 DXY & Bond Yields
→ Keep an eye on Dollar strength. If DXY breaks above 106.5, gold may face deeper pressure.

🧠 Final Thoughts:
The gold market is no longer driven by one-sided risk-off flows. As macro tensions ease, gold is transitioning into a more range-bound, news-driven phase.

This week is all about reaction, not prediction.

Let the market come to your zone. Wait for confirmation before executing. The best trades come from discipline — not prediction.

📌 Follow this account for real-time updates during FOMC and Friday’s CPI preview.