XBT/USD SHORT BUILD INTO HEAVY SUPPLY ZONES
Telah dikemas kini
BTC is still inline with one of two accumulation schematics. So a move lower back to demand is still a probability. With the amount of LONGS that got out at the rate they did as btc broke a new structure limit to run higher.
Smart Money needs a high liquidity environment to exit into and the break created just that and by the chart of the btc longs, they got out in a hurry as retail was jumping in. They can still take it higher into supply and trap more retail traders as they position now short. You can see how the market makers are already trying to trap the break out traders who were on either side of that retail trader pattern- bullish pennant or wedge, whatever you want to call it. Those big wicks on either side. They do it for a reason.
This one has a few a couple scenarios that could play out if they hunt for short liquidity to the top side.
The ORANGE scenario would have you scaling in entries up to 4100 if that is where they stop. Your avg entry would be just above 4000 .
The WHITE scenario would have you scaling in entries higher if they attack the 4300 level. Your avg. entry should be around 4100-4200.
The potential first target is back at the supply level they broke which needs to be tested/validated as a demand level. This is a smaller target than we usually shoot for BUT the only reason we are wanting to build this trade short is for the potentially larger profit IF they are going to break that level and take BTC lower for a secondary test or a last point of supply. So this is not our final target if they break through. This level is important though if they decide to find heavy demand and turn the trade back to the topside.
ENTRY ZONE will be determined by how high they take it but I will have scaled entries on the way up with my last entry at 4200 if they attack the 4300 level.
IF you are watching it when it breaks then you can enter on the way back down if they going to take it lower
STOP LOSS :4310
PROFIT TARGET 1: 3750 (BE PREPARED TO SCALE OUT 100% AND REVERSE THE TRADE TO THE LONG SIDE IF THEY FIND HIGH DEMAND HERE) MOVE STOP TO BREAK EVEN
PROFIT TARGET 2: 3619 (SCALE OUT 50% )
IF WE BREAK 3600, WE ARE GOING LOWER SO DONT SCALE OUT ALL OF YOUR POSITION AT PT 2
TRADE NO MORE THAN 1 - 1.5% RISK ON THIS TRADE AS THIS IS HIGHER RISK
CAMBRISTCAPITAL.COM
INSTITUTIONAL KNOWLEDGE --RETAIL TRADER ADVAN
Smart Money needs a high liquidity environment to exit into and the break created just that and by the chart of the btc longs, they got out in a hurry as retail was jumping in. They can still take it higher into supply and trap more retail traders as they position now short. You can see how the market makers are already trying to trap the break out traders who were on either side of that retail trader pattern- bullish pennant or wedge, whatever you want to call it. Those big wicks on either side. They do it for a reason.
This one has a few a couple scenarios that could play out if they hunt for short liquidity to the top side.
The ORANGE scenario would have you scaling in entries up to 4100 if that is where they stop. Your avg entry would be just above 4000 .
The WHITE scenario would have you scaling in entries higher if they attack the 4300 level. Your avg. entry should be around 4100-4200.
The potential first target is back at the supply level they broke which needs to be tested/validated as a demand level. This is a smaller target than we usually shoot for BUT the only reason we are wanting to build this trade short is for the potentially larger profit IF they are going to break that level and take BTC lower for a secondary test or a last point of supply. So this is not our final target if they break through. This level is important though if they decide to find heavy demand and turn the trade back to the topside.
ENTRY ZONE will be determined by how high they take it but I will have scaled entries on the way up with my last entry at 4200 if they attack the 4300 level.
IF you are watching it when it breaks then you can enter on the way back down if they going to take it lower
STOP LOSS :4310
PROFIT TARGET 1: 3750 (BE PREPARED TO SCALE OUT 100% AND REVERSE THE TRADE TO THE LONG SIDE IF THEY FIND HIGH DEMAND HERE) MOVE STOP TO BREAK EVEN
PROFIT TARGET 2: 3619 (SCALE OUT 50% )
IF WE BREAK 3600, WE ARE GOING LOWER SO DONT SCALE OUT ALL OF YOUR POSITION AT PT 2
TRADE NO MORE THAN 1 - 1.5% RISK ON THIS TRADE AS THIS IS HIGHER RISK
CAMBRISTCAPITAL.COM
INSTITUTIONAL KNOWLEDGE --RETAIL TRADER ADVAN
Dagangan aktif
SMART MONEY WILL ALWAYS POSITION AND EXIT BEFORE RETAIL!! ALWAYS!
Dagangan aktif
WELL, XBT has followed inline with our trade expectation and trade plan on this one.
HEAVY SELLSIDE volume came in on this one as well.
They are now at the first level that we wanted to see validated. Its seen minimal demand here so far from the buyside which is great for the short.
We will be hedging long here with the XBTH19 contract to lock in profits this far so we can leave our net short on. STOP ON THE HEDGE will be 3630.
By they way we set the same trade up on ETH and as you can see on ETH , we have the same results.
stay tuned for more updates.
Dagangan aktif
They filled the CME futures gap on BTCH2019 last week. So far since the gap fill they have traded lower. This will be an active week Im sure as we get closer to the MARCH 29th expiration on the futures contract which had record volume. Once the Gaps are filled they can continue with their intended direction.
We are still net short and took 50% of our position off at our targets on XBT and ETH, But we also HEDGED the rest of our exposure so this allows us to let BTC and ETH work out this sideways purge.
Square up Risk above is still there but the lower square ups still fit inline with the accumulation schematic if they go and get them.
Will update soon.
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
Perfect HEDGE on open net short position from original post.
Hedge Long from the last update and was able to take full advantage of the break out to liquidity zone #2 which we DISCUSSED IN LENGTH IN OUR LIVE ROOM LAST FRIDAY as well as in our CAMBRIST CAPITAL Discord
350% gain just on the hedge at 10X.
HERES THE LINK TO THE LIVE ROOM -
youtube.com/watch?v=8t8ZZemLctU
Enjoy
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