BitcoinPendidikan
16/08/19 4h chart - Another leg down? consolidation? break up?
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A harsh week for Bitcoin, but if you ask me it was expected... this is just a typical correction for the bull run.
Most of people out there didn't expect though for such a strong move, though if we look closely we can see that on hourly, 4 hours, daily all clouds broke/rejected...
Also we can notice that from rejection to rejection withing the triangle the correction is more harsh (which makes me to think that we are going to have a lower low)..
TA:
- From my bigger picture perspective, no worries if you are here as investor, keep accumulating and keep laddering down, the more down we go the more BTC you keep on buying, because next bull run will surely bring us ATH to at-least 35-50k or even to 80-120k (Which might happen on the bull run afterwards instead).
- From my mid term perspective which I've been posting on several places since we reached 14k, everything accordingly to reset the parabolic move around 1'-0.7' fib (5-8.2k), just like we did with last parabolic run as well... this is a big probability, since I do believe in phases and cycles and repetitive history... it all fits, 5 trending lines of parabolic bull run, should end up with going to at-least 0.7 fib'...
as I showed in my "Bigger picture of where BTC is going' (Sorry, for some reason trading view moved some of my lines, but you get the idea) idea..
- From my short term perspective I decided to show all 4h chart possibilities, we are moving in a pipeline which might at-last create the breakthrough we needed off the symetrical triangle to create a lower low... but we also might continue the pull back and stay consolidating withing the triangle, so watch for the critical point.. we also have strong resistances: * The SMA200 MA200 lines which we struggle to surpress
* The resisting clouds on all time frams
* The pipeline itself
FA:
- As I keep repeating myself, BTC technology isn't ready, thus institutions only now starting to get interest but they don't and will never invest into Crypto, they will only build the echo system to create the environment needed for the mass adaption, but it will take time for both: until institutions will build the echo system (a few years), and until BTC will be ready in technology so institutions can use it (a few more years), this is 1 main reason why I don't see ATH this year, and maybe not even next year...
SA:
Also too many groups/people hyping BTC for longs, I bet whales see that and thus keep them squeezed and liquefied, we hit extreem panic in everything to do with feer/greed index (13 just yestarday!!!), too much fud going on in news, too many big voices are heared around the world against Bitcoin, and also bad news such as the btc ponzu scam which happened lately... no wonder we are that low, and if we break lower low then the panic and blood in the streets will be much worst (I expect a very strong leg down if we break the triangle..
And finally 1 thing I wanted to remind to all about probabilities:
I want to remind you guys what I said about probabilities, im not an expert but I do focus on bigger picture and fa and sa included... people too focused on hourly and 4h and even daily, and not looking on weekly/monthly, any one can be right and wrong, no one is perfect, best traders in the world have only 40-60% chances to be right with their views, people like me who have been around and did almost all possible mistakes have only 10-30% chances to be right with their views, so even though I scored a lot of chances lately it doesn't mean Im a pro nor rich, it just means that my probabilities were lucky enough, this is the reminder on probabilities which I usually love to post:
"
TA does not tell what to do, it gives possibilities... in the end you choose what looks better and what looks less likely and this way you turn many possibilities into probability (And as we are humans, probabilities are doomed to fail on many cases)..
Since most of the market is a fight between:
1. SentimentalA - Feelings and mood towards the price, and adaptation, I don't see any signs for big scale adaptation only a lot of talks (Such as FB), I don't see any institutional money running in (Else we would see a non stop much bigger parabolic movement all the way to 100-120k), people are hyped about it, but they really are few, and thus whales can create big movements, but in the end we don't have enough buying power to push the price up, thus I feel we are going down...
2. FundamentalA - Is the price has real value/assets behind it?, in Crypto speaking it's all about technology, BTC has still ways to go, and it didn't really mature much fundamentally since the last bear drop, on long term the fundamentals are good, but on short term its very weak, even the lightning network has so much to improve... not talking even about many other ALTs which are useless, and other bigger ALTs which still has a lot of work to do before they really can show any sign of improvement.... I don't see much value in fundamentals at-list not for until the end of the year.
3. So to conclude my TA as well, I think we aren't going to see ATH this year, but we might see a long reversal pattern for corrections and accumulation, until new money will be ready to enter the market (Which will happen when sentimental and fundamentals will mature a little longer)...
"
I hope you enjoyed my analysis, and see you next time ;)
Most of people out there didn't expect though for such a strong move, though if we look closely we can see that on hourly, 4 hours, daily all clouds broke/rejected...
Also we can notice that from rejection to rejection withing the triangle the correction is more harsh (which makes me to think that we are going to have a lower low)..
TA:
- From my bigger picture perspective, no worries if you are here as investor, keep accumulating and keep laddering down, the more down we go the more BTC you keep on buying, because next bull run will surely bring us ATH to at-least 35-50k or even to 80-120k (Which might happen on the bull run afterwards instead).
- From my mid term perspective which I've been posting on several places since we reached 14k, everything accordingly to reset the parabolic move around 1'-0.7' fib (5-8.2k), just like we did with last parabolic run as well... this is a big probability, since I do believe in phases and cycles and repetitive history... it all fits, 5 trending lines of parabolic bull run, should end up with going to at-least 0.7 fib'...
as I showed in my "Bigger picture of where BTC is going' (Sorry, for some reason trading view moved some of my lines, but you get the idea) idea..
- From my short term perspective I decided to show all 4h chart possibilities, we are moving in a pipeline which might at-last create the breakthrough we needed off the symetrical triangle to create a lower low... but we also might continue the pull back and stay consolidating withing the triangle, so watch for the critical point.. we also have strong resistances: * The SMA200 MA200 lines which we struggle to surpress
* The resisting clouds on all time frams
* The pipeline itself
FA:
- As I keep repeating myself, BTC technology isn't ready, thus institutions only now starting to get interest but they don't and will never invest into Crypto, they will only build the echo system to create the environment needed for the mass adaption, but it will take time for both: until institutions will build the echo system (a few years), and until BTC will be ready in technology so institutions can use it (a few more years), this is 1 main reason why I don't see ATH this year, and maybe not even next year...
SA:
Also too many groups/people hyping BTC for longs, I bet whales see that and thus keep them squeezed and liquefied, we hit extreem panic in everything to do with feer/greed index (13 just yestarday!!!), too much fud going on in news, too many big voices are heared around the world against Bitcoin, and also bad news such as the btc ponzu scam which happened lately... no wonder we are that low, and if we break lower low then the panic and blood in the streets will be much worst (I expect a very strong leg down if we break the triangle..
And finally 1 thing I wanted to remind to all about probabilities:
I want to remind you guys what I said about probabilities, im not an expert but I do focus on bigger picture and fa and sa included... people too focused on hourly and 4h and even daily, and not looking on weekly/monthly, any one can be right and wrong, no one is perfect, best traders in the world have only 40-60% chances to be right with their views, people like me who have been around and did almost all possible mistakes have only 10-30% chances to be right with their views, so even though I scored a lot of chances lately it doesn't mean Im a pro nor rich, it just means that my probabilities were lucky enough, this is the reminder on probabilities which I usually love to post:
"
TA does not tell what to do, it gives possibilities... in the end you choose what looks better and what looks less likely and this way you turn many possibilities into probability (And as we are humans, probabilities are doomed to fail on many cases)..
Since most of the market is a fight between:
1. SentimentalA - Feelings and mood towards the price, and adaptation, I don't see any signs for big scale adaptation only a lot of talks (Such as FB), I don't see any institutional money running in (Else we would see a non stop much bigger parabolic movement all the way to 100-120k), people are hyped about it, but they really are few, and thus whales can create big movements, but in the end we don't have enough buying power to push the price up, thus I feel we are going down...
2. FundamentalA - Is the price has real value/assets behind it?, in Crypto speaking it's all about technology, BTC has still ways to go, and it didn't really mature much fundamentally since the last bear drop, on long term the fundamentals are good, but on short term its very weak, even the lightning network has so much to improve... not talking even about many other ALTs which are useless, and other bigger ALTs which still has a lot of work to do before they really can show any sign of improvement.... I don't see much value in fundamentals at-list not for until the end of the year.
3. So to conclude my TA as well, I think we aren't going to see ATH this year, but we might see a long reversal pattern for corrections and accumulation, until new money will be ready to enter the market (Which will happen when sentimental and fundamentals will mature a little longer)...
"
I hope you enjoyed my analysis, and see you next time ;)
Nota
- The pipeline failed to preserve thus we didn't continue bearish but consolidated with the symmetrical triangle.- Price now 10164, we are below the 4h cloud and the 1h cloud, also so far respected the low part of the symmetrical triangle 2 times in a row....
- I think if we get rejected by the clouds again, then it means we will hit a 3rd time at the edge of the symmetrical triangle which means that we gonna break it downwards, looks like the lower part of the triangle gets strength by the bears...
- If we enter the clouds then we will keep consolidating withing the symmetrical triangle, breaking above the clouds might get us to the upper edge of the triangle.
Nota
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Dagangan aktif
- Hedgehog's guide to the symmetrical triangle:
- Why it's still not safe to go long:
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