BTC H&S (Shruggs)

8 Apr 2018

BTCUSD

Keeping this analysis short and sweet.

BTC has been making making a series of Head & Shoulders (H&S) patterns throughout this bear market. Unlike the many failed Bull Flags and reversal bear flags, the one consistent and reliable pattern indicative of a (sharp) downside has been the H&S pattern.

Although we may still see BTC rally toward 7.2k, there appears to be enough resistance up to this point to be rejected near/at this level. And judging from what appears to be another H&S in the horizon, my guess is that we see another sharp decline before another bounce back up.

That said, if we fail to form/maintain a higher low pattern, this may translate to a drop under the current 5.8-6k low, which may set up for a bounce from the 4.9-5k level.

On the other hand, if we can maintain the higher low, BTC may rally to break toward the trendline.

With all the recent FUD around Bitfinex, I think it's a matter of time before more uncertainty creeps into the market -- inviting yet another bearish catalyst -- further allowing for greater swings to downside.

As tempted as I am to act on my prediction, I will wait for confirmation before re-entering a short/long position. But for now, I am still leaning bearish.

Good luck!

10 Apr 2018

Nota

Well, the H&S certainly turned into somewhat of fake out (bull-trap), which winded up trapping some bulls in the process.

That said, bears inevitably took control again. And the price continues to plummet, as predicted. Keeping things simple, I do see a break below 6.5k (soon).

NOTE: Although G. Soros has now committed to trading crypto, many people may have forgotten that he made the bulk of his money shorting the markets. That said, he once said crypto was bubble, so I am inclined to believe he would sooner contribute to shorting the market once again (before bull regain control).

For now, the downtrend continues, and until I see greater capitulation followed several days of Wyckoff style accumulation, I am inclined to believe the we will remain in a bear market until all the weak hands have been shaken out.