BTC - Another Wyckoff-Style Bull Run

5 Jul 2018

XBTUSD

Having had a stellar year thus far trading Bitcoin (currently up over 3000% ytd), I am now ready to share a few thoughts on what I currently see happening in this crypto world.

First and foremost, one thing to note is that it appears we are currently making another attempt to shift into bullish mode, but before we do, it appears we are currently in the midst of what I feel is a Wyckoff-style accumulation.

Why?

Well, if you have actively been trading BTC recently, you would have noticed the many fake outs, stop hunts, etc. that have been taking place. This sort of price behavior is usually indicative of larger institutional-style market making activity. The idea is to accumulate as many 'coins' (while shaking you out of yours) before marking up the price and kicking off what will be next rally.

Since larger institutions (or 'whales') have lots of money, they often cannot complete all of their accumulation in one day without greatly affecting the price, so they are forced to whipsaw the price around while attempting to keep the price under wraps as they gather as many coins as possible.

Although the bulk of their accumulation may have already been purchased via OTC, it would be somewhat naive to assume all larger players/institutions were able to fill their coffers that way. It would also be naive to assume they would use OTC to 'distribute' their coins. After all, many of them are here to trade. So, you can expect some distribution by way of traditional exchange.

That said, keeping the price low also allows for them to better negotiate OTC prices nonetheless. Thus timely market dumps further allows them keep a tight lid on the price whilst accumulating. (Keep in mind, with current volume being so low, this is achieved much easier.)

So, where are we now?

At this point, I believe we are about 2/3 toward completing the accumulation phase before entering the markup phase. Unless some ultra bad news is released, it is somewhat safe to speculate that the bottom is in for now. Does this mean we can't go lower than 5800? No. It just means based on what I am currently seeing with the price action, it's not likely.

So, where are we headed?

For now, I am expecting a correction/retracement from the recent rally back down to 6150-6300. This is the area of most interest to me, as I feel it provides the strongest springboard for the next rally; the zone which will officially kick off the next bull run.

If there is truly support at this area, we should see a higher low, which signifies the Bulls are ready to defend this price point.

Also... If The aforementioned zone is truly the bottom, we'll soon know, since you can expect a rather strong move and rally toward (and through) 7k. On the other hand, failure to convincingly break through 7k will not bode well, IMO.

A bounce from this area may also confirm the formation of what appears to be a large inverse H&S, which is a strong bullish signal I am sure many Bulls on the sideline are also taking notice of.

Let's see what happens.

Good luck, Godspeed, and Happy Trading!

7 Jul 2018

Nota

It appears BTC may be looking to rev up the engine a little early. Previously, I stated an entry level of interest being somewhere between 6150-6300, however, it appears the Bulls are starting to apply pressure a bit early.

If you flip to the 4 hour chart, you can see the beginnings of what appears to be a head and shoulders pattern. However, this can also flip into an inverse H&S and continuation upward. (A common fakeout)

Another important clue we may launch from this current level is the most recent dip down to 6475 (on BITMEX). The Bulls bought up the dip very quickly and have not allowed for much downside since.

That said, I have begun accumulating some BTC at this level in case we launch from the 6.5-6.6k region. Near-term, it will have to break 7k for this rally to have some conviction. Worse case scenario, if we revisit sub 6.5k, I will pyramid my orders on the way down. This should give me a bit of cushioning and protection to build into a larger position if we were to approach my ideal entry.

On the other hand, if we do not, I will at least have a position to build from on the way to my swing target of 7.5-8k.

If the Bulls show greater conviction as we approach 7.5-8k, I will continue building my position as we pull back from resistance.

Let the games begin!

8 Jul 2018

Nota

As predicted, BTC made another move to the upside. On BITMEX, we rallied to 6868 -- establishing a new ceiling to crush through. Thus far, the Bulls certainly appear to have the momentum and are confirming the new short-term trend to be bullish.

As I mentioned yesterday, I have already carefully started scaling in to my long position. Realizing there is still a chance that we return down sub 6.5, I am only commiting 1/4th of my position.

The extra capital I'm keeping on the sideline, will be there to pyramid into a larger position if we head back into my ideal by zone. As of right now, however, I have moved my stop to break even, with a position locked in at 6506.5.

The moment I see any weakening or shift in the trend, with the potential to return back to stop, I will likely take my profits and look to reposition.

The name of the game is 'risk management', and I am not one to sacrifice profits in lieu of hope.

That said, I am currently eying a key resistance level between 7-7.2k. 7k is the psychological resistance level to break. 7.2 is the higher end point of that resistance, from what I'm seeing in the chart. (But first, we must crossover 6.9)

***Using a second account, I may look to open a short-term 'short' around this position as part of my hedging strategy. Again, 'risk management'.

Let's see what happens.

10 Jul 2018

Nota

As you may (or may not) know by now, BTC failed to rally above 6868, which was the level to break for bullish continuation on BITMEX.

Although I was looking for a break above this level before adding to my long position, instead, I made a decision to close my trade for a small profit the moment we broke below 6650 (which was the level I moved my stop loss to).

From there I opened a short position, since it was the most profitable bet. I have since closed my short at 6326.5 and opened a partial long from 6318.5.

If the inverse head and shoulders forms, I am expecting And willing to accumulate downward to a final target of 6150. On the other hand, A break below 6k will negate my midterm bullish disposition altogether as lower lows would be expected.

Trading this level does require a bit of patience a bit of patience and focus. So long as I do not give up any (or very little) profit, I remain confident in my trading thus far.

The next few days should be interesting, indeed.

Good luck and happy trading.

Cheers!

12 Jul 2018

Nota

As we approach news and an upcoming Mid-August decision of an ETF, a lot can happen. Without a doubt, I do believe the powers that be may attempt to push the price lower and shoot for some form of capitulation before August. However, news leading up to ETF decision will surely be bullish.

Right now, I am still scaling into a long position however, I am cautious and have a stop loss in place at 5.7k. That said, a break below 6k, will have more than likely raise a a red flag, as 6k psychological should be strong. Any weakness in at this level will force me to re-assess my position.

I am only in with 1/4 of my position at the moment which gives me plenty of wiggle room to adjust if necessary.

The next 24-48 hours should provide some clarity as to where we are going.

Stay tuned.

14 Jul 2018

Nota

Although I am still long (for now), I am beginning to see signs of the Bears reemerging. Keeping my stops tight in case we dip to form a lower low. Failure to break above 6.4k will be the first red flag for this play. After that we will need to break above 6.55, and 6.8 respectively.

I will likely trail my stop, as I do see signs of weakness from the Bulls.

Although the inverse H&S may still be in play, the formation of the lower right shoulder also indicates weakness. Of course, this does not entirely negate the structure, but it is something worth paying attention to.

That said, if the Bulls fail to break through any of the significant targets with conviction, I will likely pivot into a short position -- aiming for a target circa 5.5k (or lower).

Let see how this plays out.

16 Jul 2018

Nota

So far, everything's going according to plan. I have now moved my stop to above break even (and in profit). Time to sit back, relax and let this move play out to completion.

As of this morning (eastern time), Bitcoin hit my first target of 6550. My next target is a break above 6.7 before I inch up my stop again.

With the ETF rumors on the horizon, I am looking for a rally above 7k leading into August 10th.

Happy trading!

17 Jul 2018

Nota

From the looks of it, Bitcoin bulls are not looking to give up much in lieu of the all they've accomplished thus far.

Currently, we are approaching a very defining level of resistance between 6750-6850. Many of the indicators are exhausted (particularly RSI on the 4HR), and can use a breather.

Ideally, if we were to see a retracement, now would be the perfect time. However, I wouldn't bank on anything too drastic. After reviewing the various Fibonacci levels, I think a retracement to 6500 would be almost ideal to cool off the 4HR RSI. However, before doing so, I would not be surprised if the bulls would attempt to push one last time above 6750 before breaking back down to recruit some more bulls.

So, a move up between 6750-6850 would not surprise me. However, although possible, I would not expect a break above 6850-7k without some form of pullback.

All things remaining bullish, I would expect a break above 6.8-7k sometime later this week.

(Watch out for a potential Cup and Handle on the 4HR if we do pull back).

Cheers and Happy Trading!

23 Jul 2018

Nota

Funny, I updated this a while back... Looks like the mods hated on my prediction. Nevertheless, still in my trade. I have no plans to close this anytime soon.

As we approach 8k, and near the crucial ETF announcement date, I think it would be premature to consider any short positions.

Even if the decision is punted, I believe we will see a BTC ETF this year. Thus, I remain steadfast in my position. If the decision does get punted, however, I may look to take take some profit off the table as we peak near my target of 9.4-9.5k.

If we break 9.5k however before August 13th, I may instead protect the position with trailing stop.

Cheers!