The Moment I've Been Waiting For (XLM + BTC.D)
Telah dikemas kini
This bull run has already been quite insane, especially for Bitcoin and certain altcoins. But what about the big cap cryptos, like XRP, ETH, LTC, and XLM? The market loves liquidity, and the biggest gains with the most liquidity will come from the highest volume coins. I don't mean the highest percentage gains. I mean the most amount of total profit for whales. The big money.
Already, we're seeing XRP touch $1.00 and ETH holding above 2k. What's happening? If you look at the above chart on the left (Bitcoin Dominance), you can see that it's finally breaking a very important support level. If it holds below 57 or so, especially for the rest of the week, we can finally get some insane rallies for altcoins. And this is what I've been waiting for. For years, literally.
If you read some of my previous posts (linked below), you'll see that this is the market behavior I have been betting on since 2018. I called the bottom on the ETH/BTC ratio in 2019, as well as the top range for Dominance. After taking out my initial risk earlier this year, I am still waiting for my next move. What I'm waiting for is the moment when many altcoins go anywhere from 5-100x on their Bitcoin ratios while Bitcoin ALSO moves up. I think this will likely be the last leg up in the current cycle. It can last anywhere from a few weeks to a few months. Once the market reaches its medium-term top, my strategy is to have already taken some profit and be ready to buy my coins at a 75% discount. I don't know if we're there yet. There is a possibility Bitcoin is close to topping already - my log trend resistance on the BLX chart is just around
73K currently. But if it breaks that, our final peak may be quite high - as much as 250k. But I'm not going to make any outlandish claims here. No one knows. All I know is that there is a clear market cycle repetition occurring, and there will likely be a period of severe price decline. 
Zoomed in:
When I entered this market, I had some targets in mind for the coins I hold. It's important at this point for me not to jump around too much with my portfolio. After having witnessed the previous bull market at the end, I know the consequences of chasing pumps. The best portfolio growth seems to come from just staying put. And this is also why I stayed in alts throughout the bear market. I had no idea when Dominance would break down, and as you can see from the chart, there were multiple opportunities for this support level to break:
Dominance is now below the 200 week MA (teal), and if it closes this week below, it can drop all the way to the bottom of my broadening formation (red X). During this time, as mentioned above, we can see many alts go parabolic, especially the ones that haven't broken all-time high yet. And it often doesn't matter so much which coins you're in. But sometimes low caps provide the highest percentage gains. For example, I got very lucky with my only low cap - Smartlands (SLT), which has already gone over 100x since bottom. And I know I won't sell at the perfect top. That's why I plan to dollar-cost-average out, just as I DCA'd into the market. Some of my XLM was bought at 7 cents, some at 17 cents, and some of it was bought at 3 cents.
Here are my coins, and some of my loose price targets:
Ethereum (ETH): 5k-10k
Litecoin (LTC): 1.5k-2.5k
Stellar Lumens (XLM): $5-10
VeChain (VET): $0.40-$2.00 (could go higher, but a little less sure of this one)
NEO: $400-1.5k
NANO: $50-200
Smartlands (SLT): Honestly no clue. Could stop at $40, or go all the way to $320.
I no longer hold XRP (got fed up with Ripple - nothing to do with price action, actually), but I think it can get to $10-15, perhaps.
These are the price ranges where I will consider reducing my positions further. On the bearish side, if I see some price failures, I will consider selling at lower levels. But for now, the market still looks strong. For signs of weakness, I'm looking at some of these bullish channels to hold as support. For example, I don't want to see ETH fall back into this channel:
Or XLM:
There's also the 100 day Moving Average (yellow) on the above XLM chart. That should generally hold. If it doesn't, I'll have to reduce my targets or at least assume some sideways/down price action for a while. Here's the chart zoomed in, with the test of the 100 day MA:
The final parabolic phase of the market should include liftoff from an established uptrend. Breaking UP from an existing UPTREND channel is EXTREMELY bullish. We saw this happen in the previous bull market, almost exactly 4 years ago:
I do think there will probably be a bloody end to all this, as there usually is. Especially with how overheated the stock market is looking, I don't want to be caught in the next big bubble pop. And I do think we're in an asset bubble. I'm getting ready for some huge shifts in financial markets over the course of the next decade or two.
Anyway, 4 years ago in April 2017, altcoins went completely parabolic. The thing is, Bitcoin is now 3x its previous all-time high. This is a substantial difference in cycle behavior, and why I think it's possible this cycle ends sooner. Either that, or Bitcoin will end its cycle early, and alts will have a final run at the end of the year, repeating 2017. Who knows? All I know is that this is roughly in line with the market cycle behavior I've been betting on since 2018. And it's fun to be right.
This is not financial advice! This is for my personal record, and meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Already, we're seeing XRP touch $1.00 and ETH holding above 2k. What's happening? If you look at the above chart on the left (Bitcoin Dominance), you can see that it's finally breaking a very important support level. If it holds below 57 or so, especially for the rest of the week, we can finally get some insane rallies for altcoins. And this is what I've been waiting for. For years, literally.
If you read some of my previous posts (linked below), you'll see that this is the market behavior I have been betting on since 2018. I called the bottom on the ETH/BTC ratio in 2019, as well as the top range for Dominance. After taking out my initial risk earlier this year, I am still waiting for my next move. What I'm waiting for is the moment when many altcoins go anywhere from 5-100x on their Bitcoin ratios while Bitcoin ALSO moves up. I think this will likely be the last leg up in the current cycle. It can last anywhere from a few weeks to a few months. Once the market reaches its medium-term top, my strategy is to have already taken some profit and be ready to buy my coins at a 75% discount. I don't know if we're there yet. There is a possibility Bitcoin is close to topping already - my log trend resistance on the BLX chart is just around
73K currently. But if it breaks that, our final peak may be quite high - as much as 250k. But I'm not going to make any outlandish claims here. No one knows. All I know is that there is a clear market cycle repetition occurring, and there will likely be a period of severe price decline. Zoomed in:
When I entered this market, I had some targets in mind for the coins I hold. It's important at this point for me not to jump around too much with my portfolio. After having witnessed the previous bull market at the end, I know the consequences of chasing pumps. The best portfolio growth seems to come from just staying put. And this is also why I stayed in alts throughout the bear market. I had no idea when Dominance would break down, and as you can see from the chart, there were multiple opportunities for this support level to break:
Dominance is now below the 200 week MA (teal), and if it closes this week below, it can drop all the way to the bottom of my broadening formation (red X). During this time, as mentioned above, we can see many alts go parabolic, especially the ones that haven't broken all-time high yet. And it often doesn't matter so much which coins you're in. But sometimes low caps provide the highest percentage gains. For example, I got very lucky with my only low cap - Smartlands (SLT), which has already gone over 100x since bottom. And I know I won't sell at the perfect top. That's why I plan to dollar-cost-average out, just as I DCA'd into the market. Some of my XLM was bought at 7 cents, some at 17 cents, and some of it was bought at 3 cents.
Here are my coins, and some of my loose price targets:
Ethereum (ETH): 5k-10k
Litecoin (LTC): 1.5k-2.5k
Stellar Lumens (XLM): $5-10
VeChain (VET): $0.40-$2.00 (could go higher, but a little less sure of this one)
NEO: $400-1.5k
NANO: $50-200
Smartlands (SLT): Honestly no clue. Could stop at $40, or go all the way to $320.
I no longer hold XRP (got fed up with Ripple - nothing to do with price action, actually), but I think it can get to $10-15, perhaps.
These are the price ranges where I will consider reducing my positions further. On the bearish side, if I see some price failures, I will consider selling at lower levels. But for now, the market still looks strong. For signs of weakness, I'm looking at some of these bullish channels to hold as support. For example, I don't want to see ETH fall back into this channel:
Or XLM:
There's also the 100 day Moving Average (yellow) on the above XLM chart. That should generally hold. If it doesn't, I'll have to reduce my targets or at least assume some sideways/down price action for a while. Here's the chart zoomed in, with the test of the 100 day MA:
The final parabolic phase of the market should include liftoff from an established uptrend. Breaking UP from an existing UPTREND channel is EXTREMELY bullish. We saw this happen in the previous bull market, almost exactly 4 years ago:
I do think there will probably be a bloody end to all this, as there usually is. Especially with how overheated the stock market is looking, I don't want to be caught in the next big bubble pop. And I do think we're in an asset bubble. I'm getting ready for some huge shifts in financial markets over the course of the next decade or two.
Anyway, 4 years ago in April 2017, altcoins went completely parabolic. The thing is, Bitcoin is now 3x its previous all-time high. This is a substantial difference in cycle behavior, and why I think it's possible this cycle ends sooner. Either that, or Bitcoin will end its cycle early, and alts will have a final run at the end of the year, repeating 2017. Who knows? All I know is that this is roughly in line with the market cycle behavior I've been betting on since 2018. And it's fun to be right.
This is not financial advice! This is for my personal record, and meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Dagangan aktif
Just for fun here, I'll add my small YOLO trading position. Went long on XLM the other day with an entry of $0.425. I'll post updates.Nota
So it looks like this was poorly timed - the Stellar network has yet again gone down, which isn't necessarily a good thing. They were apparently trying to upgrade and one of their nodes was potentially outdated. Not a good look, but hopefully they will recover. Unfortunate that this comes off the back of the Uganda news. Let's see if price can recover.Nota
Here are the live updates from Stellar.org: status.stellar.org/incidents/7h0czw6mnjzsNota
There's a possibility Bitcoin drops to the 100 day MA (not tested for many months), currently around 45.6k. That's if the current ascending triangle fails to produce a breakout, and results in somewhat of a triple top. If this happens, alts may have to wait a while yet again. Nota
Looks pretty good here. If XLM can close the week near 60 cents, that would be really great. The daily oscillator has plenty of room for upside, if it decides to break towards ATH. Dagangan ditutup secara manual
Closed the long position. Could continue going up but funding has me a little concerned.Nota
May re-enter if I see funding go down, or just watch the show :)Dagangan aktif
Re-entered the long at 0.616.Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai
Trade reached the liquidation point, which was my stop loss for the trade. Still made some profit at least from the first long at $0.42. Nasty liquidation event for overzealous longs. But funding has gone negative, which tells me XLM can indeed resume the uptrend from here. 50 day MA has also been tested. Nota
Structurally starting to look a little toppy here. Not interested in entering any longs, but just continuing to hold spot. If XLM cannot hold the 100 day MA (yellow) or hold above the uptrend channel (orange), price can plummet quite aggressively. Nota
A panic low at the top of the channel (near 35 cents) is possible here, but I wouldn't want to see much lower than that. A positive sign would be some sideways movement along the 50 or 100 day MA.Nota
Nasty wick, but holding above the channel and the 100 day MA, for now. Nota
And just like that, we're back. 
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