XRP and what is actually happening
Telah dikemas kini
Despite the widespread optimism and enthusiastic support for XRP on social media, the broader picture reveals a more nuanced and potentially precarious situation. Social media platforms often amplify sentiments that may not align with underlying market conditions, creating an echo chamber of bullish sentiment. This optimism can be misleading, especially when it fails to account for actual market dynamics like volume trends, liquidity constraints, or institutional participation.
A key factor complicating XRP's trajectory is the persistent selling pressure that offsets or even eclipses buying pressure. While social media narratives might suggest strong demand, on-chain data and order book analysis often reveal heavy selling activity. This dynamic suggests that market participants, including whales or early investors, could be offloading their holdings during price rallies, limiting upward momentum. Such consistent selling pressure acts as a ceiling for price appreciation and undermines the ability of XRP to achieve sustained breakouts. This indicates that the bullish consensus may be fragile, relying more on sentiment than market mechanics.
The potential for a short squeeze could further complicates the situation. However, selling pressure zeroing out buying pressure could indicate that short sellers have taken aggressive positions against XRP, expecting further price declines. However, this also creates a precarious balance. If buying pressure suddenly spikes due to a catalyst. While this might seem bullish, short squeezes are often temporary and highly volatile, leaving prices vulnerable to retracement once the squeeze subsides. It’s a double-edged sword that could momentarily align with the social media hype but fails to establish long-term stability.
Example in the H4 time frame based on XRP:USDT.P
Short explanation:
1) The main pane shows the price action. We can clearly see in the 4 hours time frame a majority of supply rather than a strong demand action (based on LL HL and retracement)
2) the choppiness level of the market seems to be quite persistent, indicating a clear consolidation path likely mid term lasting
3) the red line indicates the balance between premium and discount , and as we can see at present , the price is tapping constantly the discount area of support provided by the lower band of supply.
Some consideration about the BULL flag which I should call it BS flag most of the time when is so wide spread. Here the 4H chart for the current wide spread believe that XRP is creating a bull flag:
We can see clearly the choppiness of the market is even better visible adding the so called bullish triangle to the actual current price trend which will see some action between the new year eave and the 9th of January 2025:
In short, if you are an XRP holder spot just keep it , if you are trying to get the so called breakout be aware that market makers know how many retail traders are trying to jump into this high level of choppiness because over leverage is actually visible. Actually as an indicator when you have a good way to identify choppiness in the market , means that we should expect some sort of action soon the choppiness reached its peak. For this I wrote an indicator that you can see in my charts.
Price entries for buy :
Around 2.150 if does not break the demand zone below (always at least 3 candles confirmation in 3 different time frames)
If the demand zone is breached around that zone next one should be around 1.9500 and 1.90 . In between there are also several gaps to be covered so we could also expect a short squeeze and also an array of orders to sweep buy stop losses too.
A key factor complicating XRP's trajectory is the persistent selling pressure that offsets or even eclipses buying pressure. While social media narratives might suggest strong demand, on-chain data and order book analysis often reveal heavy selling activity. This dynamic suggests that market participants, including whales or early investors, could be offloading their holdings during price rallies, limiting upward momentum. Such consistent selling pressure acts as a ceiling for price appreciation and undermines the ability of XRP to achieve sustained breakouts. This indicates that the bullish consensus may be fragile, relying more on sentiment than market mechanics.
The potential for a short squeeze could further complicates the situation. However, selling pressure zeroing out buying pressure could indicate that short sellers have taken aggressive positions against XRP, expecting further price declines. However, this also creates a precarious balance. If buying pressure suddenly spikes due to a catalyst. While this might seem bullish, short squeezes are often temporary and highly volatile, leaving prices vulnerable to retracement once the squeeze subsides. It’s a double-edged sword that could momentarily align with the social media hype but fails to establish long-term stability.
Example in the H4 time frame based on XRP:USDT.P
Short explanation:
1) The main pane shows the price action. We can clearly see in the 4 hours time frame a majority of supply rather than a strong demand action (based on LL HL and retracement)
2) the choppiness level of the market seems to be quite persistent, indicating a clear consolidation path likely mid term lasting
3) the red line indicates the balance between premium and discount , and as we can see at present , the price is tapping constantly the discount area of support provided by the lower band of supply.
Some consideration about the BULL flag which I should call it BS flag most of the time when is so wide spread. Here the 4H chart for the current wide spread believe that XRP is creating a bull flag:
We can see clearly the choppiness of the market is even better visible adding the so called bullish triangle to the actual current price trend which will see some action between the new year eave and the 9th of January 2025:
In short, if you are an XRP holder spot just keep it , if you are trying to get the so called breakout be aware that market makers know how many retail traders are trying to jump into this high level of choppiness because over leverage is actually visible. Actually as an indicator when you have a good way to identify choppiness in the market , means that we should expect some sort of action soon the choppiness reached its peak. For this I wrote an indicator that you can see in my charts.
Price entries for buy :
Around 2.150 if does not break the demand zone below (always at least 3 candles confirmation in 3 different time frames)
If the demand zone is breached around that zone next one should be around 1.9500 and 1.90 . In between there are also several gaps to be covered so we could also expect a short squeeze and also an array of orders to sweep buy stop losses too.
Dagangan aktif
The demand area on the H1 chart was retested several times in the past few hours, resulting in a minor breakout that ultimately served to fill the liquidity void highlighted in the initial chart of this analysis.
The H1 timeframe shows the price persistently remaining in the discount zone, marked by the red horizontal line calculated by my indicator, and currently, we are re-entering the demand retest zone.
If the price breaches the demand area, on my chart is situated between 2.1400 and 2.1200, we should expect a continuation to the downside. It's worth noting, however, that the overall XRP price is likely influenced by the movements of BTC as well.
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
On the M5 timeframe, it is possible to observe the unfilled liquidity voids between XRP (on the left) and BTC (on the right). The inner premium zone on the 5-minute chart for XRP is larger than the premium zone for BTC, which, based on the chart, was calculated to be near the midline between the Supply and Demand zones.
All the green zones (liquidity voids) are likely to be filled, potentially driving the price downward again to retest the Demand zone for BTC around 96,000 and for XRP around 2.1200 to 2.1300.
Nota
On the M5 timeframe, the creation of an inner supply zone around the 2.2150 price level has led to the filling of previously existing liquidity voids generated during the upward spike. A comparison of the XRP chart with BTC reveals a strong correlation, as BTC exhibits similar behavior, forming an inner supply zone around the 97,000 price level.
Additionally, the formation of this new supply zone has recalibrated the separation between the Premium and Discount zones. This adjustment highlights ongoing strong selling activity, which is also creating liquidity voids likely attributed to unfulfilled short orders. These voids could contribute to further downward pressure until they are resolved.
The anticipated retest of the 2.1200 - 2.1400 demand area for XRP might be delayed, as the trend could shift once the liquidity voids described above have been filled. This suggests a potential pause in downward momentum and opens the possibility of a trend reversal or consolidation phase thereafter.
Penafian
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