Pt5. ZCL WYCKOFF shake off!

13 Ogo 2018

Hello and thank you for tuning, this is PART 5!

After following ZCL closely for almost 2 weeks, it has been showing of all kinds of moves. Now the pattern of Wyckoff is starting to hit my face.

The Wyckoff

Accumulation
Mark up
Distribution
Mark down (now)

If this indeed is the Wyckoff, we are just before a huge dive into the abyss, the last sell off before fork!
In part 4, before moving on to this one I suggested a short position at 194-197 and invalidation at roughly 200. This idea is still active. Worth to mention, MA 50 is pushing the price down repeatedly, working as a heavy resistance and could trigger a the drop very soon.

- Right now just for safety I am looking at a short (sell) position at 185-210, 4th wave up can still reach up to 200-210 before the big drop to 5th wave. Just in case this really plummets down according to plan there is a shorting possibility.

Target down for MARK DOWN is 110-150.
Stop buy for this one is hard, but above 215.

I will keep updating this as we go, but for now I am short term bearish!


All the best!!! -B

Please like and follow! <3

13 Ogo 2018

Nota

Another way of counting, stop buy could go up to 245 with this count before we go bullish. C can get as high as 1st wave start, but not exceed it or it would invalidate the whole impulse wave down.
Stay frosty!

13 Ogo 2018

Dagangan aktif

I am not disclaiming anything, I know this is a brave prediction, and I accept the risk of being wrong, but then again, who cares about TA that predict probability to go up, down and sideways at the same time. :)

DYOR!

13 Ogo 2018

Nota

13 Ogo 2018

Nota

Descending triangel looking pattern could indicate we are hitting the lower support line @ 175 one more time and continue down.

13 Ogo 2018

Nota

So all targets have been hit so far, we have basically 145 left. And that is the last support when 165 breaks. under 170 is a good place to start filling up bags for the ride up.

Hope everyone is having some good trades and are getting a few more zcl for the ride up! Thank you!

13 Ogo 2018

Nota

155 might give the fight and be the bottom here with the news about the ratio double from 1:1 to 2ANON:1ZCL will give the price a nice lift!

13 Ogo 2018

Nota

Please like and follow! :) Thank you everybody for the support.

13 Ogo 2018

Nota

Next up I think will be a correction up for a little while before last drop down. Let's see how this develops. I'll get back to this tomorrow.

14 Ogo 2018

Nota

Still the same call, a little up followed by last leg down.

Target is between 120-140

14 Ogo 2018

Nota

On the other hand, this looks like a solid full wyckoff.

We should see some accumulation happening here, bags being filled before a steady movement up. I would almost say disregard my last call, I think that was a little off, though prepare for it if it would be correct after all.

14 Ogo 2018

Nota

Possible accumulation pattern

14 Ogo 2018

Nota

14 Ogo 2018

Nota

I'll come back later to update again, but this is where we go right now. Decision time.

14 Ogo 2018

Nota

HEADS UP!!!

If this bearish pennant breaks down, and it indeed is the 2nd impulse wave down we are going to hit a 5th wave down to 120 after all. So there could be a stop limit at 137, just in case we drop hard even as low as 115.

previous analysis of this:

14 Ogo 2018

Nota

it has pierced the support, just a matter of time now before we drop down to next support...

14 Ogo 2018

Nota

Just to cool down all the noise about this ZCL short term downtrend, looking at the big picture we are now entering a more stable accumulation phase where we start to pick up momentum for the next mark up.

14 Ogo 2018

Nota

Momentum is slowing down for bears and we are starting to form a double bottom inside a descending wedge that indicates a push up is happening pretty soon.

RSI showing bullish divergence.

14 Ogo 2018

Nota

Possible Adam and Eve double bottom, cup forming.

15 Ogo 2018

Nota

This surely looks like AE bottom, and that is a really good thing!

We are seeing a little bounce from the neckline which is normal, followed by a leg up proportional to the cup height up.

- MA 50 has been a huge resistance, let's see if we can win it this time!
- Downtrend resistance line @ 165-167

Target: 180

15 Ogo 2018

Nota

I would feel comfortable saying we are moving up now until the fork, this has been the lowest point. If everything goes as supposed and expected we should be hitting 3 waves up, flirting with 195 and FIB 0.618 as soon as today.

15 Ogo 2018

Nota

2nd Scenario I have in mind is an accumulation phase before we trigger the lift off.

Which ever scenario I expect to see some good progress up today and tomorrow.

I will keep updating as soon as the chart exposes it's hand.

15 Ogo 2018

Nota

Looking at this from a little further away, I think we are making AE fractals and best case scenario we make a huge one, promising a huge up swing.

This would mean we are exploding up after 18th... approximately.

15 Ogo 2018

Nota

A little uplifting entertainment to lighten the tension (waiting is hard isn't it?)

What if? :) (On serious note, emotions and wishful thinking is dangerous. But this is just a mood lifter of what could happen theoretically)



Thank you everyone for the Likes and support! <3

15 Ogo 2018

Nota

Nothing extraordinary is happening right now, everyone is waiting for the ann. I would guess. Nervous fingers, people are more likely to sell than buy right now, if we hold this channel, it will give confidence to buyers.

165 to 180 still targets. or 130 down.

- RSI is bouncing up its trend line, if it breaks, we go down to 130.
- MACD has stabilized at 0, which is good for a possible up swing, as it would act as a resistance if we were under it.
- Like RSI, the price is climbing inside a channel, and the bottom line needs to hold through the pressure it's receiving from MA 50.
- MA 50 is still looking strongly bearish, needs to break within 1-2h,if we are to go up!

15 Ogo 2018

Nota

I know many are stressed because we are moving down right now, this is part of a Wyckoff. If the news wont affect the price at all, this is my strongest bet we are about to see. Nothing to panic over, we are accumulating at the bottom still.

We will see 3 descending bottoms in a row, we have 1 already which was the climax sell off. Next one is in the making, slow and steady down. 3rd one is the spring and deepest, probably going to look like a huge drop is coming but it will test the most calm traders to hold through, before very fast turning back up and start all over again to the upside. In theory that is.

16 Ogo 2018

Nota

There is the second bottom, RSI shows sell pressure is weakening, hidden bullish div.
Now we should move up to halfway up to 140ish and back down to make the last drop/spring.

16 Ogo 2018

Nota

Major resistance @ 139-140 as expected, if this breaks (against the odds) we have the previous down channel bottom line at roughly 150 as huge resistance.

Still clear hidden bullish div. on RSI and MACD. With more volume we can assume big players enter the game and would promise a big move up.
We have one or more tests on the bottom line to endure, but this is getting close to the start of a new up trend. If we weren't in a fork cycle this could turn downwards, I don't think we will see much cheaper entries for the fork rally.

16 Ogo 2018

Nota

- MA 50 is turning upwards for the first time in a week since the decline started if we close the candle above 140 on the hourly and break the MA50 resistance at the same time. This sets up the possibility that we could see a golden cross with MA100 within 2 days.

- We can expect resistance rejection from the MA 100 maybe as soon as today (maybe @ 150) leading up to the drop to make the spring bounce, would make sense.

To sum this update up, we are moving up a little more, then a drop down to 130-125 or 120. Then step by step up up up.

17 Ogo 2018

Nota

Nothing much have changed since last update, we are most likely moving up to @154, and then down to form the lowest bottom around 130-120. This should spark the next bullish cycle.

I will follow this closely, if and when we get near 150, it will be very close to a possible breakout out of this pattern. If I would short, I would go out after 150 test fails around 145 on the way down, and re enter below 135. Or short at 150-154 and have a stop buy at 160.

17 Ogo 2018

Nota

And yeah forgot to mention:
- The MA 50 and 100 are closing in on each other for a possible golden cross, first touch will probably be rejected and breakout on second try.
- If the "spring" down is too weak from bears, we will see a possible inverse head and shoulders, given that we touch the neckline at 155 first.

17 Ogo 2018

Nota

I will make a new thread soon because this is getting long and we hit all targets. As soon as I have the time! Thank you for the support!

18 Ogo 2018

Nota

And this should be the peak I have been predicting, now let's see if it drops back down to make the lowest point... few wicks above the target, but I think we are heading down for the last time.

18 Ogo 2018

Nota

Now we have MA50 and MA100 trying to make a golden cross, like I told earlier I think this will be rejected at first and will probably succeed on 2nd try. This should now push the price lower supported by MACD crossing signal line to bearish and RSI is leaving its upwards trend line and breaking down.

18 Ogo 2018

Nota

I do consider first scenario more probable, but preparing for more outcomes is smart.

Second scenario is, If the bears don't have the volume to push it down further than 140ish, we see the cycle turn to bullish.

18 Ogo 2018

Nota

18 Ogo 2018

Nota

Just as I updated, zcl did a unexpected spike, signs of strength. We are nearing the end of this accumulation, not maybe yet but very soon!

18 Ogo 2018

Nota

We now have another scenario, this could be a rounded Wyckoff bottom, where we don't go down to make a spring and instead we make a bull flag as drawn, so this is really nearing the end of the bottom accumulation. Which ever scenario, we are soon moving up.

19 Ogo 2018

Nota

Part 6 is up: