ZN1! uptrend soon?
Since the spectacular crash beginning in mid-Feb on fears of rate hike, seems like 10yr Treasury futures have found a bottom at around 130'27, and could be ready for a move up.
Movement since Feb 2021
While the chart showed some cracks since around 11 Feb (following a false double bottom in the daily chart), the big drop took place on 26 Feb, by closing 47 points below previous close at 133'21.5.
Since then, each subsequent wave has been shallower, with bottom found at around 130'27. and it is now ~1.4 dollars higher at 132'09. I would say the aforementioned bottom has been confirmed as price had rebounded to above the 10sma and 20sma, albeit retraced slightly after approaching the 40sma.
What next?
Imo the 10yr UST futures may pull back further to around 131'21 (ie below the 10 and 20sma), before starting an uptrend move. I would say 134 before end of May seems plausible at this juncture.
Would consider my view a fail if price drops below 131'15 and no rebound thereafter.
Let's see.
Movement since Feb 2021
While the chart showed some cracks since around 11 Feb (following a false double bottom in the daily chart), the big drop took place on 26 Feb, by closing 47 points below previous close at 133'21.5.
Since then, each subsequent wave has been shallower, with bottom found at around 130'27. and it is now ~1.4 dollars higher at 132'09. I would say the aforementioned bottom has been confirmed as price had rebounded to above the 10sma and 20sma, albeit retraced slightly after approaching the 40sma.
What next?
Imo the 10yr UST futures may pull back further to around 131'21 (ie below the 10 and 20sma), before starting an uptrend move. I would say 134 before end of May seems plausible at this juncture.
Would consider my view a fail if price drops below 131'15 and no rebound thereafter.
Let's see.
Penafian
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