Big Mo’s Glaskugel — Macro Drawdown Risk (v1.1.2)

What it does / what you see

An at-a-glance drawdown-risk oscillator that blends several macro US signals.
• A smooth, color-blended line (green→orange→red) shows the scaled risk score (0–100).
• Subtle shading marks “re-steepen warning windows” (starts when the yield curve re-steepens after an inversion; ends on normalization/cool-down).
• A compact status table summarizes: overall risk level, Yield Curve (10y–3m), Credit Stress (Baa–10y), Economy (LEI), and Valuation (CAPE).

Data used & why

• Yield Curve (10y–3m) — FRED:T10Y3M. Inversions and subsequent re-steepens often precede recessions/equity drawdowns.
  
• Credit Stress — FRED:BAA10Y vs its 1-year average (deviation in bps). Widening credit spreads flag tightening financial conditions.
  
• Economy (LEI) — ECONOMICS:USLEI. 6-month annualized growth below a cutoff highlights macro deterioration.
  
• Valuation (CAPE) — SHILLER_PE_RATIO_MONTH. Elevated valuations can amplify downside risk.
  
• VIX spikes — optional boost that recognizes sudden risk repricings.
  

Important disclaimer
This is not a reliable or predictive indicator in all regimes. No guarantees or warranties of any kind are provided. It is not financial advice. Signals can be early, late, or wrong.
That said, it leans on well-studied warning factors (yield-curve dynamics, credit spreads, LEI weakness, valuation extremes) that have flagged major market downturns in the past.

Key customization / tweaks

• Weights for each component (Yield, Credit, LEI, VIX, CAPE).
  
• Thresholds: yield inversion months, re-steepen lookback, credit-stress bps, LEI cutoff, CAPE level, VIX spike levels.
  
• Re-steepen boost: enable/disable, base points, half-life decay.
  
• Shading behavior: cool-down bars to “unwarn,” max warning duration, only shade when risk ≠ green.
  
• Scaling & smoothing: dynamic rolling max, EMA length, yellow/red thresholds.
  
• Status table: position, and a snapshot mode to view values at a chosen historical time.