MA4 Alignment with Forward Projection

This indicator is a moving-average alignment and projection overlay built on a simple core idea:

MA4 (a 4-period moving average) represents the current short-term mean of price.

MA4[1] is the prior value of that same moving average, used as a 1-bar delayed reference.

From those two series, the script provides four layers of information:

Live alignment (MA4 vs MA4[1])

A forward projection of a sampled historical MA pattern

Projected cross markers (vertical lines) when the projected MA4 would cross projected MA4[1]

A compact table summarizing current alignment and the most recent live cross event

This is designed to help traders visualize:

whether short-term mean behavior is strengthening or weakening, and

where a future cross could plausibly occur if a selected historical pattern repeats.

This script is informational only and does not place trades.

Chart Setup Note (Important)

Because this tool samples a historical pattern window and projects it forward, it is important to let the chart fully load/merge historical data before interpreting the projection.

If the chart history is not fully loaded, the sampled window may be incomplete, which can shift the projection and projected cross markers.
Once the chart is fully merged, the projection remains stable and consistent during scrolling and replay.

What Makes It Different

This is not a basic “MA crossover” indicator. The core differentiator is:

The script extracts a historical MA4 pattern from a user-defined window,

shifts it forward into the future, and

marks projected future crosses between the projected MA4 and projected MA4[1].

It also builds projected deviation envelopes from the sampled window and uses those envelopes for optional stretch/invalidation alerts.

How the Projection Works (Concept)
1) Sample a historical MA “pattern window”

You define a window in the past using:

Pattern Start (bars back)

Pattern End (bars back)

The script collects MA4 values across that window into an internal pattern array.

2) Shift the pattern forward

Shift Pattern Forward (bars) controls how far into the future the sampled pattern is plotted.

3) Delta-anchor projection (optional)

If Delta-anchor projection is enabled, the script projects the shape of the pattern while re-centering it around the current MA4 level.
This keeps the projection visually relevant to current price scale instead of “pasting” old absolute values.

Projected Cross Vertical Lines

When projection is enabled, the script checks for projected cross events:

Bull projected cross: projected MA4 rises through projected MA4[1]

Bear projected cross: projected MA4 falls through projected MA4[1]

When a projected cross occurs, a vertical line marks that projected bar as a possible timing point.

Vertical line visibility is made more consistent by using a deviation-based height (with ATR fallback) so the marker remains readable across different symbols and volatility regimes.

Projected Deviation Envelopes + Alerts (Band 3 / Band 4)

The script measures historical deviation from MA4 within the sampled window using the standard deviation of:

(close − MA4)

That deviation is then applied to the projected MA4 path to form projected envelopes:

Band 3 (Stretch): ±(StDev × 1.618 by default)

Band 4 (Invalidation): ±(StDev × 2.618 by default)

Optional alerts can trigger when price breaches these projected envelopes:

Band 3 Breach: price stretched outside the projected range

Band 4 Breach: price exceeded the larger projected boundary (often treated as invalidation context)

Alerts can be set to use wicks or close.

Table: What It Shows

The table summarizes the current state at a glance:

MA4 value

MA4[1] value

Alignment: Bullish / Bearish / Neutral

Most recent live cross event:

BUY (MA4 crossed above MA4[1])

SELL (MA4 crossed below MA4[1])

This helps confirm what you’re seeing without relying on visual estimation.

How to Use It (Simple Workflow)

Read live alignment

MA4 above MA4[1] = bullish bias

MA4 below MA4[1] = bearish bias

Enable projection for timing awareness

Turn on Projection

Watch projected cross VLines as “possible next inflection timing” markers

Use Band 3 / Band 4 as context

Band 3 breach can indicate stretch vs the projected path

Band 4 breach can indicate the projected path is less reliable (invalidation context)

Use the table for quick confirmation

It summarizes alignment and the latest live cross state.