GER40 BIAS Forecast [ML-Based]

🎯 Purpose:
This indicator provides a daily directional bias (LONG / SHORT / FLAT) for the German DAX40 index (GER40) using a statistically optimized scoring model, developed with 6 years of historical data and verified through machine learning analysis.

🧠 How the Score Works (ML-derived):
Each trading day receives a bias score (0–3) for both long and short setups, based on these 3 factors from the daily candle:

Condition Long Score Logic Short Score Logic
1. Candle Direction Close > Open → +1 Close < Open → +1
2. VWAP Slope VWAP > VWAP[1] → +1 VWAP < VWAP[1] → +1
3. Volatility Strength Range > SMA(20) → +1 Close < Yesterday's Low → +1 (Rejection)

➡️ A score of 2 or more triggers a Long or Short Bias for the day.

These scoring rules are derived from a machine learning model trained on 6 years of DAX data, identifying the most predictive features for directional follow-through.

📘 Bias Interpretation:
Score Result Daily Bias Background Color
Long Score ≥ 2 LONG Green
Short Score ≥ 2 SHORT Red
Both < 2 FLAT Gray

📍 Indicator Features:
🎨 Background coloring to visualize daily bias directly on intraday charts

🔢 Optional score labels (e.g. “Long: 2 | Short: 1”) per calendar day

📈 VWAP line plotted for additional intraday context

❌ Entry signals removed – this version focuses solely on forecasting directional bias

💡 Use Case:
Morning planning aid

Filtering for high-probability intraday setups

Combining with session-based entry systems