Quarterly-Inspired EMA Swing Strategy

🚀 Quarterly EMA Strategy: Simplified

This strategy uses quarterly trends and pullbacks to EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) to buy low and sell high in strong uptrends (longs) or short weak stocks in strong downtrends.

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🔧 Core Setup
• Timeframe: Quarterly (1 candle = 3 months or ~65 trading days).
• Stocks: Liquid NSE F&O stocks (e.g., Reliance, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, etc.).
• Indicators Used:
• 10-quarter EMA → Shorter-term trend.
• 21-quarter EMA → Long-term trend.
• 13-week EMA → Weekly confirmation.
• ATR → For stop-loss.
• VIX → Volatility control.
• Relative Strength vs Nifty → Filter strong/weak stocks.

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🟢 LONG SETUP (Buy on Pullback in Uptrend)

✅ Conditions:
1. Quarterly Trend is Bullish
Price > 10Q EMA > 21Q EMA
2. Pullback Happens
Price closes within 3% of 10Q or 21Q EMA, or touches it and bounces.
• E.g., Stock close = 8200, 10Q EMA = 8000 → Pullback = Valid (2.5% gap)
3. Previous Trend is Strong
• Last 1-2 quarters were making higher highs OR closing well above 10Q EMA
4. Candle Shows Rejection
• Lower wick (buying pressure from EMA)
• Small body (<5% total candle range)
5. Market Support Filters
• Nifty > its 4-quarter EMA (sloping upward)
• India VIX < 20 (low panic)
• Stock’s last 2 quarters’ return > 1.1× Nifty’s return
6. Weekly Confirmation
• Price > 13-week EMA
• 13W EMA is rising
• Bullish pattern in last 2 candles
• Volume ≥ 75% of 20-week average

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📈 Example (Bajaj Finance):
• Close: 8200,
• 10Q EMA: 8000 (bullish),
• 21Q EMA: 7800
• Weekly price > 13W EMA → Confirmation ✅

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🎯 Trade Plan (Long):
• Entry: 8200 (Quarterly) or near 13W EMA (Weekly)
• Stop-Loss: 2× ATR below 21Q EMA or candle low
• Target: 2:1 reward
• Exit 1: Book 50% at target
• Exit 2: Trail 21Q EMA
• Optional Hedge: Buy Nifty PUT if VIX > 15

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🔴 SHORT SETUP (Sell on Pullback in Downtrend)

✅ Conditions:
1. Quarterly Trend is Bearish
Price < 10Q EMA < 21Q EMA
2. Pullback to EMA
Price closes within 3% of 10Q or 21Q EMA, or touches and gets rejected
3. Prior Trend is Down
Last 1-2 quarters had lower lows or closing >5% below 10Q EMA
4. Bearish Candle Setup
• Upper wick (rejection from EMA)
• Small body
5. Market Support Filters
• Nifty < its 4-quarter EMA (sloping down)
• India VIX < 20
• Stock’s 2-quarter return < 0.9× Nifty’s return
6. Weekly Confirmation
• Price < 13-week EMA
• 13W EMA is falling
• Bearish candles (engulfing, lower highs)
• Volume ≥ 75% of 20-week average

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📉 Example (Vodafone Idea):
• Close: ₹8
• 10Q EMA: ₹8.2 → Close is 2.5% below
• Weekly close < 13W EMA
• Bearish candle → Confirmation ✅

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🔻 Trade Plan (Short):
• Entry: 8
• Stop-Loss: 2× ATR above 21Q EMA or candle high
• Target: 2:1 reward
• Exit 1: Book 50% at target
• Exit 2: Trail 21Q EMA
• Optional Hedge: Buy Nifty CALL if VIX > 15

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📊 Position Sizing (Same for Long & Short):
• Risk per trade: 0.5–1% of total capital
• Example:
• Capital = ₹10 lakh
• Risk = ₹10,000
• Stop = 800 points → Buy 12 shares

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✅ Exit Rules Summary