Baseline Trend

Baseline Trend [BT] Strategy Overview
Baseline Trend [BT] is a crypto-only trading strategy built on straightforward price-based logic: market direction is determined solely by the price’s position relative to a selected baseline open price. No technical indicators like RSI, MACD, or volume are used—this approach is purely focused on price action and position size manipulation.
This strategy is a genuine concept, developed from my own market analysis and logical theory, refined through extensive observation of crypto market behaviour.
While the strategy offers structure and adaptability, it’s important to recognise that no single trading system or indicator fits all market conditions. This tool is meant to support decision-making, not replace it—encouraging traders to stay flexible, informed, and in control of their risk.

Important Usage Note:
This system is intended for crypto markets only.
– When used as an indicator guide, it can be applied to both spot and futures markets.
– However, when used with web-hook automation, it is designed only for futures contracts.
Ensure compatibility with your trading setup before using automation features.

Core Logic: The Baseline
The strategy revolves around the concept of a “Baseline”, with three types available:
Main Baseline: Defines the primary trend direction. If the price is above, go long; if below, go short.
Second Baseline and Third Baseline: Used to measure buying/selling pressure and are key to certain take-profit logic options.
Baselines are customisable to different timeframes—Year, Month, Week, and more—based on available input settings. Structurally, the Main Baseline is the highest-level trend reference, followed by the Second, then Third.
Users can mix and match these baselines across timeframes to backtest crypto symbols and understand behaviour patterns, particularly when used with standard candlestick charts.

Entry & Exit Logic
Entry Signal: Triggered when price crosses over/under a defined distance (percentage) from the Main Baseline. This distance is the Trade Line, calculated based on the close price.

Exit Signal / Stop Loss: If price moves un-favorable and crosses over/under the Stop Loss Line (a defined distance from the Main Baseline), the open position will be force-closed according to user-defined settings.

LiqC (Liquidation Cut)
LiqC is a secondary stop-loss that activates when a leveraged position’s loss equals or exceeds the user-defined liquidation threshold. It forcefully closes the position to help prevent full liquidation before stop-loss, providing an extra layer of protection.
This LiqC is directly tied to the leverage level set by the user. Please ensure you understand how leverage affects liquidation risk, as different broker exchanges may use different liquidation ratio models. Using incorrect assumptions or mismatched leverage values may result in unexpected behaviour.

Position Sizing & Block Units
This strategy features a block-based position sizing system designed for flexibility and precision in trade management:
Block Range: Customisable from 1 to 10 blocks
Risk Allocation: Controlled through a user-defined ROE (Risk of Equity) value
For example, setting an ROE of 0.1% with 10 blocks allocates a total of 1% of account equity to the position. This structure supports both conservative and aggressive risk approaches, depending on user preference.
Block sizes are automatically calculated in alignment with exchange requirements, using Minimum Notional Value (MNV) and Minimum Trade Amount (MTA). These values are dynamically calculated based on the live market price, and scaled relative to the trader’s balance and selected risk percentage. This ensures accurate sizing with built-in adaptability for any account level and current market conditions.

Scalping Meets Trend Holding
This system blends short-term scalping with longer-term trend holding, offering a flexible and adaptive trading style.
Example:
Enter 10 blocks → take quick profits on 5 blocks → let the remaining 5 ride the trend.
This dual-layered approach allows traders to secure early gains while staying positioned for larger market moves. Think of it as:
5 Blocks to Protect: Capture quick wins and manage exposure.
5 Blocks to Pursue: Let profits run by following the broader trend.
By combining both protection and pursuit, the strategy supports risk control without sacrificing the potential for extended returns.

Flexible Take-Profit Logic
The strategy supports multiple, customisable take-profit mechanisms:
TP1–4 (Profit Percentage)
Triggers take profit of 1 block unit when unrealised gains reach defined percentage thresholds (TP1, TP2, TP3, TP4).

Buying/Selling Pressure-Based Take Profit
D1 – Pressure 1
Measures pressure between Second and Third Baselines.
If the distance between them exceeds a user-defined DPT (Decrease Post Threshold) and the price moves far enough from the Third Baseline, D1 activates to take profit or scale out one block.
D2 – Pressure 2
Measures pressure between the Main and Second Baselines.
Works similarly to D1, using a separate distance and pressure trigger.
Note: Both D1 and D2 deactivate in reversal or even trend conditions.

D3–5: High-High / Low-Low Logic
Based on bar index tracking after position entry:
For Long Positions: If after D3 bars the price doesn't exceed the previous bar's high, the system executes a take profit or scale-out.
For Short Positions: If the price doesn't drop below the previous low, the same logic applies.
This approach adds time-based and momentum-aware exit flexibility.

Leverage & Liquidation Risk
When backtesting with leverage enabled, the system checks whether historical candles exceed the liquidation range, calculated based on the average entry price and the leverage input. If the Liquidation Risk Count exceeds 1, profit and loss accuracy may be affected. Traders are encouraged to monitor this count closely to ensure realistic backtesting results.
Since the system cannot directly control or sync with your broker exchange’s actual leverage setting, it’s important to manually match the system’s leverage input with your broker’s configured leverage.
For example: If the system leverage input is set to 10, your exchange leverage setting must also be set to 10. Any mismatch will lead to inaccurate liquidation risk and PnL calculations.

Backtesting and Customisation
All TP1–4 and D1–5 functions are fully optional and customisable. Users are encouraged to backtest different crypto symbols to observe how price behaviour aligns with baseline structures and pressure metrics.

Each of the TP1–4 and D1–5 triggers is designed to execute only once per open position, ensuring controlled and predictable behaviour within each trade cycle.
Since backtesting is based on available historical bar data, please note that data availability varies depending on your TradingView subscription plan. For more reliable insights, it’s recommended to backtest across multiple time ranges, not just the full dataset, to assess the stability and consistency of the strategy’s performance over time.

Additionally, the time frame resolution interval in TradingView is customisable. For best results, use commonly supported time frames such as 30 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 1 day, or 1 week. While the system is designed to support a broad range of intervals, non-standard resolutions may still cause calculation errors.
Currently, the system supports the following resolution ranges:
Intraday: from 1 minute to 720 minutes
(e.g., 60 minutes = 1 hour, 240 minutes = 4 hours, 720 minutes = 12 hours)
Daily: from 1 day to 6 days
Weekly: from 1 week to 3 weeks
Monthly: from 1 month to 4 months
Although the script is built to adapt to various resolutions, users should still monitor output behaviour closely, especially when testing less common or edge-case time frames.

System Usage Notice:
This system can be used as a standalone trading indicator or integrated with an exchange that supports web-hook signal execution. If you choose to automate trades via web-hook, please ensure you fully understand how to configure the setup properly. Web-hook integration methods vary between exchanges, and incorrect setup may lead to unintended trades. Users are responsible for ensuring proper configuration and monitoring of their automation.

Note on Lower Time Frame Usage
When using lower time frames (e.g., 1-minute charts) as the trading time frame, please be aware that available historical data may be limited depending on your subscription plan. This can affect the depth and reliability of backtesting, making it harder to establish a trustworthy probability model for a symbol’s behaviour over time.
Additionally, when pairing a high-level Main Baseline (MBL) time line (such as "1 Month") with low time frame resolutions (like 1-minute), you may encounter order execution limits or calculation overloads during backtesting. This is due to the large number of historical bars required, which can strain the system's capacity.
That said, if a user intentionally chooses to work with lower time frames, that decision is fully respected—but it should be done with awareness and at the user’s own risk.

Things to Be Aware Of (Web-hook Usage Only)
The following points apply if you're using web-hook automation to send signals from the system to an exchange:

Alert Signal Reliability
During extreme market volatility, some broker exchanges may fail to respond to web-hook signals due to traffic overload. While rare, this has occurred in the past and should be considered when relying on automation.

Alert Expiration (TradingView)
If you're on a Basic plan, TradingView alerts are only active for a limited time—typically around 1.5 months. Once expired, signals will no longer be sent out.
To keep your system active, reset the alert before expiration. For uninterrupted alerts, consider upgrading to a Premium plan, which supports permanent alert activation.

TradingView Alert Maintenance
TradingView may occasionally perform system maintenance, during which alerts may temporarily stop functioning. It’s recommended to monitor TradingView’s status if you’re relying on real-time automation.

Repainting
As of the current version, no repainting behaviour has been observed. Signal stability and consistency have been maintained across real-time and historical bars.

Order Execution Type and Fill Logic
All signals use Limit orders by default, except for MBL Exit and Fallback execution, which use Market orders.
Since Limit orders are not guaranteed to fill, the system includes logic to cancel unfilled orders and resend them. If necessary, a Fallback Market order is used to avoid conflict with new incoming trades.
This has only happened once, and is considered rare, but users should always monitor execution status to ensure accuracy and alignment with system behaviour.

Feedback
If you encounter any errors, bugs, or unexpected behaviour while using the system, please don’t hesitate to let me know. Your input is invaluable for helping improve the strategy in future updates.
Likewise, if you have any suggestions or ideas for enhancing the system—whether it’s a new feature, adjustment, or usability improvement—please feel free to share. Together, we can continue refining the tool to make it more robust and beneficial for everyone.

Disclaimer
All trading involves risk, particularly in the crypto market where conditions can be highly volatile. Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes, and market behaviour may evolve over time. This strategy is offered as a tool to support trading decisions and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Each user is responsible for their own actions and accepts full responsibility for any results that may arise from using this system.