Intermarket Analisis V.1

What is Intermarket Analysis?
Intermarket analysis looks at how various asset classes influence each other. The key idea is that markets are interconnected, and movements in one can signal or predict movements in another. For example:

Stocks and Bonds: Rising bond yields (e.g., US 10-year Treasury) often pressure stock prices downward.
Commodities and Forex: A rising US Dollar (USD) typically weakens gold (XAU/USD) prices due to their inverse relationship.
Forex and Equities: Strong economic data boosting equities might strengthen the USD.
This method helps you confirm trends, anticipate reversals, or avoid false signals in your EMA 10/20 crossover strategy.

Key Intermarket Relationships
USD Index (DXY) and Gold (XAU/USD):
Correlation: Inverse. When DXY rises (stronger USD), gold often falls, and vice versa.
Indicator: Track DXY on a separate chart. Use a 50-period SMA or RSI to spot overbought/oversold conditions in USD strength.
Application: If your EMA 10/20 gives a buy signal on gold but DXY is overbought (RSI > 70), it might be a false signal—wait for DXY to cool off.
US 10-Year Treasury Yields and Equities (e.g., S&P 500):
Correlation: Inverse. Higher yields increase borrowing costs, pressuring stocks.
Indicator: Use a 200-day EMA on yields (e.g., ^TNX) and compare with S&P 500’s 50-day EMA.
Application: If yields are trending up (above 200 EMA) while your EMA 10/20 signals a stock buy, consider it risky—cross-check with macro data.
Crude Oil (WTI/Brent) and Gold:
Correlation: Positive. Both are inflation hedges, so they often move together during economic uncertainty.
Indicator: Apply a MACD (12, 26, 9) on oil prices to confirm trend direction.
Application: If oil’s MACD shows a bullish crossover and your gold buy signal aligns, it strengthens the case for a trend.
Bond Yields and USD:
Correlation: Positive. Rising yields support a stronger USD.
Indicator: Use a Stochastic Oscillator (14, 3, 3) on DXY to spot momentum shifts.
Application: If Stochastic is overbought on DXY and yields are high, a gold sell signal from EMA 10/20 might be more reliable.
How to Apply Intermarket Analysis to Your EMA 10/20 Strategy
Your current strategy uses EMA 10/20 crossovers for entry/exit, with SL at swing low/high and no TP until an opposite crossover. Here’s how to integrate intermarket analysis:

Confirmation: Before acting on a buy signal (EMA 10 > EMA 20), check if DXY is weakening (e.g., below 50 SMA) or oil is rising (MACD bullish). This supports a gold uptrend.
Divergence Warning: If your EMA 10/20 buy signal occurs but DXY is trending up (strong USD) or yields are spiking, it might indicate a false breakout—hold off.
Macro Context: On July 02, 2025, 08:30 PM WIB, watch for upcoming US Jobless Claims (3-4 July). A weak report could boost gold and weaken USD, aligning with your buy signal.