US CPIIntroducing "US CPI" Indicator
The "US CPI" indicator, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the United States, is a valuable tool for analyzing inflation trends in the U.S. economy. This indicator is derived from official data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is widely recognized as a key measure of inflationary pressures.
What is CPI?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time. It is an essential economic indicator used to gauge inflationary trends and assess changes in the cost of living.
How is "US CPI" Calculated?
The "US CPI" indicator in this script retrieves CPI data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) using the FRED:CPIAUCSL symbol. It calculates the rate of change in CPI over a specified period (typically 12 months) and applies technical analysis tools like moving averages (SMA and EMA) for trend analysis and smoothing.
Why Use "US CPI" Indicator?
1. Inflation Analysis: Monitoring CPI trends provides insights into the rate of inflation, which is crucial for understanding the overall economic health and potential impact on monetary policy.
2. Policy Implications: Changes in CPI influence decisions by policymakers, central banks, and investors regarding interest rates, fiscal policies, and asset allocation.
3. Market Sentiment: CPI data often impacts market sentiment, influencing trading strategies across various asset classes including currencies, bonds, and equities.
Key Features:
1. Customizable Smoothing: The indicator allows users to apply exponential moving average (EMA) smoothing to CPI data for clearer trend identification.
2. Visual Representation: The plotted line visually represents the inflation rate based on CPI data, helping traders and analysts assess inflationary pressures at a glance.
Sources and Data Integrity:
The CPI data used in this indicator is sourced directly from FRED, ensuring reliability and accuracy. The script incorporates robust security protocols to handle data requests and maintain data integrity in a trading environment.
In conclusion, the "US CPI" indicator offers a comprehensive view of inflation dynamics in the U.S. economy, providing traders, economists, and policymakers with valuable insights for informed decision-making and risk management.
Disclaimer: This indicator and accompanying analysis are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professional advisors before making investment decisions.
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MacroTrend VisionThe "MacroTrend Vision" indicator is crafted with a singular goal – to provide traders with a quick and insightful snapshot of a country's global index. Seamlessly combining macroeconomic and technical perspectives, this tool is designed for those seeking a straightforward yet comprehensive overview. Let's explore the key features that make the "MacroTrend Vision" a valuable asset for traders looking to grasp both the big-picture economic context and technical nuances.
1. Long-Term Vision with Weekly Periods:
Gain a genuine long-term perspective with the ability to process 2500 weekly periods. This feature ensures a holistic understanding of global indices from both macroeconomic and technical viewpoints.
2. Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Conditions:
Integrate both macroeconomic trends and technical signals through Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) conditions derived from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), offering a comprehensive outlook for informed decision-making.
3. Deviation Bands for Volatility Analysis:
Refine market analysis with strategically integrated deviation bands (0.2 and 0.4) based on smoothed linear regression. Anticipate volatility and potential trend shifts, aligning macro and technical insights.
4. Logarithmic Scale Transformation:
Enhance precision in understanding price movements with a logarithmic scale transformation, especially beneficial for assets with exponential growth patterns.
5. Separated Window for Easy Navigation:
Streamline your analysis with a user-friendly design – a separated window allowing easy navigation through different symbols without altering indicator settings.
6. Alert System for CLI Conditions:
Stay informed about critical shifts with an alert system for both long and close conditions based on the RSI of the CLI. Even during periods of limited chart monitoring, this feature keeps you connected to macroeconomic and technical changes.
In essence, the "MacroTrend Vision" is your go-to tool for a balanced view, simplifying the complexities of global indices with a blend of macroeconomic insights and technical clarity.
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a widely recognized economic indicator that provides crucial insights into the health and performance of an economy's manufacturing and services sectors. This index is a vital tool for anticipating economic developments and trends, offering an early warning system for changes in these sectors.
The PMI is calculated based on surveys conducted among purchasing managers in various businesses and organizations. These managers are asked about their perceptions of current business conditions and their expectations for future economic activity within their sectors. The responses are then compiled and used to calculate the PMI value.
A PMI value above 50 typically indicates that the manufacturing or services sector is expanding, suggesting a positive economic outlook. Conversely, a PMI value below 50 suggests contraction, which may be an early indication of economic challenges or a potential recession.
In summary, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an essential economic indicator that assesses the health of manufacturing and services sectors by surveying purchasing managers' opinions. It serves as an early warning system for changes in economic activity and is a valuable tool for forecasting economic trends and potential crises.
This code combines the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data with two Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and some visual elements.
Let's break down how this indicator works:
1. Loading PMI Data:
The indicator loads data for the "USBCOI" symbol, which represents the PMI data. It fetches the monthly closing prices of this symbol.
2. Calculating Moving Averages:
Two Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are calculated based on the PMI data. The first SMA, sma_usbcoi, has a length defined by the input parameter (default: 2). The second SMA, sma2_usbcoi, has a different length defined by the second input parameter (default: 14).
3. Color Coding and Thresholds:
The line color of the PMI plot is determined based on the value of the PMI. If the PMI is above 52, the color is teal; if it's below 48, the color is red; otherwise, it's gray. These threshold values are often used to identify specific conditions in the PMI data.
4. Crossing Indicator:
A key feature of this indicator is to determine if the PMI crosses the first SMA (sma_usbcoi) from top to bottom while also being above the value of 52. This is indicated by the crossedUp variable. This condition suggests a specific situation where the PMI crosses a short-term moving average while indicating strength (above 52).
5. Visual Elements:
A "💀" skull emoji is defined as skullEmoji.
The PMI is plotted on the chart with color coding based on its value, as described earlier.
The two SMAs are also plotted on the chart.
When the crossedUp condition is met (PMI crosses the first SMA from top to bottom while above 52), a skull emoji (indicating potential danger) is plotted at the top of the indicator window.
US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI)The US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), normalized for the United States, closely mirrors the Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" (LEI). It offers unique insights into economic and financial dynamics.
The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is an economic tool designed to anticipate economic developments. It is created by aggregating and normalizing a wide range of economic and financial data from various sources.
The normalized data is then aggregated, and a composite indicator is calculated by taking a weighted average of individual indicators.
The CLI is used to provide early insights into the state of the economy and to anticipate future economic trends. It is particularly valuable for predicting economic downturns, including recessions.
The CLI is an essential tool for economists, governments, businesses, and investors seeking to understand economic trends and make informed decisions.
Key Features:
1. Early Warning: Just like its counterpart, the CLI indicator excels at offering early warnings about significant economic events, particularly economic crises. This makes it an indispensable asset for analysts and investors.
2. Recession Indicators: The moving average serves as an early warning system for potential economic recessions. When it crosses the indicator line from the bottom to the top while surpassing a predefined threshold (e.g., 101), it signals a potential crisis.
3. Market Impact: The CLI indicator provides valuable insights into the performance of financial markets, offering cues about indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and more.
Why It Matters:
Understanding the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) indicator, normalized for the United States, is crucial for anticipating economic shifts and preparing for changes in financial markets. By analyzing a diverse array of economic factors, it provides a holistic view of economic well-being. Whether you're an investor or economist, this indicator can be an invaluable resource for staying informed about market trends and major economic developments.
Source:
www.data.oecd.org
