The Rule Of 20 is a heuristic calculation to find the fair value of an asset or market given its earnings and current inflation.
Its calculation is straightforward: the fair multiple of the price or price-to-earnings ratio of a stock should be 20 minus the rate of inflation.
In math terms: fair_price-to-earnings_ratio = (20 - inflation) ; fair_value =...
It's bear market so let's have a look at the misery index.
Misery index = inflation(%) + unemployment (%)
It's only possible to use this chart on the monthly (as misery index is updated monthly), but just for fun I added a strategy to it. If misery index increases you short and you go long when MI decreases.
p.s. the band is pretty cool too
The Taylor rule is a simple formula that John Taylor devised to guide policymakers. It calculates what the federal funds rate should be, as a function of the output gap and current inflation. Here, we measure the output gap as the difference between potential output and real GDP. Inflation is measured by changes in the CPI, and we use a target inflation rate of...
This indicator calculates the annualized month-over-month percent change of a cumulative index and plots it alongside the year-over-year percent change for comparison. It was developed for the purpose of analyzing the inflation rate of CPI indexes such as “CPIAUCSL.” It can also be used on M2 money supply and pretty much any cumulative index. It will not...
The Real IRD is a simple indicator built for forex trades that need a long-term view and want to compare currencies in search of high yield. The indicated interest rate maturity is 2 years, since shorter maturities may not price central banks' monetary policy decisions.
- You need to do an analysis of the AUDUSD
- In the Interest Rate 1 field, we put the...
Quantity Theory of Money ( Inflation Growth Rate)
M - Money Supply , V - Money Velocity , Y - Real GDP, P - Price
This script only takes into account money supply theory and does not account for increases/decreases in inflation due to energy costs. QTM Calculation is compared to USIRYY , USCCPI , and Sticky Price CPI . Flex_CPI and...
Plots current ticker / M2 money supply, to give an idea of 'inflation adjusted performance'.
~In the above, see the last decade of bullish equities is not nearly as impressive as it seems when adjusted to account for the FED's money printing.
~Works on all timeframes/ assets; though M2 money supply is daily data release, so not meaningful to plot this on...
This is the United States inflation rate, based on the total Consumer Price Index published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Option to toggle:
A line to display the inflation rate in December. It does not change until the next December.
What the color change to red is indicative of:
According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding...
Deflates time series of historical open, close, high, low prices. This adjusts price data for inflation and removes the effect of price inflation.
inflation-adjusted price for period 't' = (price / cpi ) * 100
Historical CPI is pulled from Quandl.
Hello, if our topic is stocks, whatever signal we get, we have to divide and reduce the risk.
Apart from the risk, we need inflation-free figures to detect a clear growth.
Gold is one of the most successful tools to beat inflation in this regard in the historical context.
When the economy is good, we have to beat both commodities and inflation.
For this purpose,...
Major world economy's money supply velocity. Compare how each country's monetary policy has played out and current trajectory in comparison to others. The velocity of money is a measure of the number of times that the average unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time period. The concept relates the size of economic...
ENG: Inflation Price Forecast indicator
With this indicator, when you add monthly and annual positive inflation rates, the price of the parity is estimated according to inflation. You can enter inflation rates as either positive or negative. You can write positive inflation rates as they are, but when writing negative inflation rates, the rate must be preceded by...
Plots the gold price (USD) for the quantities (grams) identified as support or resistance in the indicator settings. Default values are:
75 gold grams
300 gold grams
500 gold grams
1000 gold grams
5000 gold grams
More context: The purchasing power of Bitcoin
This script will draw your underlying ticker compensating for a truer USD inflation rate based on an average between the M2 money supply increase and the government's reported CPI. It only considers the last year of inflation by default, but you can set any amount of years in the options.
This is especially relevant given the current massive printing that is...
This is a assortment of countries' inflation rates, sourced by Quandl. The countries are represented by their ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes in the options, and at the moment include:
ARG, AUS, CAN, CHE, DEU, EUR, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, NZL, RUS, USA
Included is a correlation to the current chart and the selected inflation rate. The correlation compares the monthly...
This script is designed to show a histogram of the inflation rate, based on FRED's CPI data. It shows the yearly change in cpiaucsl. As of right now, this script only works correctly on the yearly timeframe (12M). I'm currently looking into a solution to make this script work on all time frames. This script can be useful for comparing growth to inflation, or just...