Market Cycle Projection EngineMarket Cycle Projection Engine
WHAT IT DOES
Market Cycle Projection Engine (MCPE) is a fully original indicator
built in Pine Script v6 that automatically identifies the current
market cycle phase, draws key structural levels, and projects the
next expected price movement all on a single overlay chart.
Unlike traditional indicators that react to price, MCPE analyzes
the internal structure of market behavior using a four-phase cycle
model inspired by Wyckoff methodology, combined with a linear
regression slope engine and volatility expansion/contraction logic.
WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL
Most cycle indicators either repaint, rely on subjective drawing,
or require manual input. MCPE does none of these.
The core innovation is a three-factor phase classification engine:
1. Linear Regression Slope measures the true directional
momentum of price over the cycle lookback period, normalized
by ATR to make it comparable across all assets and timeframes.
2. ATR Ratio (Volatility State) compares current ATR to its
own slow average to detect whether volatility is expanding
(trending phase) or contracting (consolidation phase).
3. Price Position in Cycle Range determines whether price
is in the lower 40% (potential accumulation) or upper 60%
(potential distribution) of the cycle's high/low range.
These three factors combine to produce a four-phase classification
that updates automatically on every bar without any repainting.
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THE FOUR CYCLE PHASES
🔵 ACCUMULATION
Slope is flat. Volatility is contracting. Price is in the
lower portion of the cycle range. This is where institutions
quietly build long positions before the markup phase.
Candles colored cyan.
🟢 MARKUP
Slope is rising. Volatility is expanding. This is the
trending upward phase the reward for accumulation patience.
Candles colored green.
🟠 DISTRIBUTION
Slope is flat again. Volatility is contracting. Price is now
in the upper portion of the cycle range. Smart money is
offloading positions to retail buyers.
Candles colored orange.
🔴 MARKDOWN
Slope is falling. Volatility is expanding downward. The
cycle completes its rotation back toward accumulation.
Candles colored red.
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HOW TO USE
Step 1 Read the Phase
Look at the current candle color and the Dashboard panel
(top-right). The Cycle Phase row tells you exactly where the
market is in its current rotation.
Step 2 Check Cycle Position %
The Cycle Position metric shows where price sits within the
current cycle range (0% = bottom, 100% = top).
Below 30% = potential accumulation opportunity.
Above 70% = potential distribution / caution zone.
Step 3 Use the Projection Arrow
When a phase transition occurs, MCPE draws a directional
projection line showing the expected next move. The arrow
length is calculated from the average of the previous two
cycle swing ranges and expressed as a percentage of current
price. This is NOT a price prediction it is a probabilistic
projection based on historical cycle amplitude.
Step 4 Respect the Key Levels
Three horizontal levels are always visible:
Cycle High upper boundary of the current cycle range.
Cycle Low lower boundary of the current cycle range.
Mid the equilibrium level between the two.
Price returning to Mid after an extreme move is a common
mean-reversion setup.
Step 5 Confirm with Volatility and Volume
The Dashboard shows Volatility Status and Volume reading.
Strong signals occur when phase transitions align with
expanding volatility and elevated volume simultaneously.
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CALCULATION LOGIC
Phase Classification:
lr_slope = linreg(close, cycle_len, 0) - linreg(close, cycle_len, 1)
lr_slope_norm = lr_slope / ATR(14)
atr_ratio = ATR(14) / ATR(cycle_len)
price_pos = (close - cycle_low) / cycle_range
Markup : lr_slope_norm > 0.1 AND atr_ratio > 1.1
Markdown : lr_slope_norm < -0.1 AND atr_ratio > 1.1
Accumulation: slope flat AND price_pos < 0.4
Distribution: slope flat AND price_pos >= 0.4
Projection Amplitude (Last Cycle method):
avg_range = (|meso_high - meso_low| + |prev_high - prev_low|) / 2
target = last_pivot + avg_range (bull) or - avg_range (bear)
Volatility Status:
High when ATR(14) > SMA(ATR(14), 20) * 1.3
Cycle Strength (0-100):
Measures how far price deviates from the cycle midpoint,
expressed as a percentage of the total cycle range.
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SETTINGS
Cycle lookback (bars)
Controls how many bars define one full cycle. Increase for
macro analysis, decrease for shorter-term cycles.
Recommended: 50 for daily, 30 for 4H, 20 for 1H.
S/R pivot lookback
Controls how far back the indicator looks for key support
and resistance pivot points.
Projection bars
How many bars into the future the projection line extends.
Projection basis
Three methods available:
Cycle Average uses average of last two swing ranges.
Last Cycle uses 75% of the most recent cycle range.
ATR Multiple uses ATR × 30 as a fixed projection size.
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COMPATIBILITY
Works on all assets Crypto, Forex, Stocks, Indices, Futures.
Works on all timeframes.
Best results on Daily and 4H charts for swing trading.
For intraday use, reduce cycle_len to 20-30.
No repainting. All signals calculated on bar close.
No lookahead bias. No request.security() with lookahead.
No Heikin Ashi or non-standard chart dependency.
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ALERTS INCLUDED
Phase: Accumulation detected
Phase: Markup detected
Phase: Distribution detected
Phase: Markdown detected
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DISCLAIMER
This indicator is provided for educational and informational
purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Past cycle patterns
do not guarantee future results. Markets are inherently
unpredictable. Always apply your own analysis and use proper
risk management before placing any trade. The author is not
responsible for any trading losses incurred from use of this
indicator.
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Penunjuk Pine Script®
