Risk Metrics: beta 'β', correl 'ρxy', stdev 'σ', variance 'σ²'Portfolio Risk Metrics (Part I):
beta 'β'
The beta coefficient can be interpreted as follows:
β =1 exactly as volatile as the market
β >1 more volatile than the market
β <1>0 less volatile than the market
β =0 uncorrelated to the market
β <0 negatively correlated to the market
excerpt from the Corporate Finance Institute
correlation coefficient 'ρxy'
The correlation coefficient is a value that indicates the strength of the relationship between variables.
The coefficient can take any values from -1 to 1. The interpretations of the values are:
-1: Perfect negative correlation. The variables tend to move in opposite directions
(i.e., when one variable increases, the other variable decreases).
0: No correlation. The variables do not have a relationship with each other.
1: Perfect positive correlation. The variables tend to move in the same direction
(i.e., when one variable increases, the other variable also increases).
excerpt from the Corporate Finance Institute
standard deviation 'σ'
68% of returns will fall within 1 standard deviation of the arithmetic mean
95% of returns will fall within 2 standard deviations of the arithmetic mean
99% of returns will fall within 3 standard deviations of the arithmetic mean
excerpt from Corporate Finance Institute
variance 'σ²'
In investing, variance is used to compare the relative performance of each asset in a portfolio.
Because the results can be difficult to analyze, standard deviation is often used instead of variance.
In either case, the goal for the investor is to improve asset allocation.
excerpt from Investopedia
Risk!!!
Portfolio Metrics = α(Jensen's), β, CAPM(Ra), Sharpe, TreynorPortfolio Metrics...
Standard Deviation
Jensen's Alpha
Beta
Expected Return (CAPM, Ra)
Sharpe Ratio
Treynor Ratio
Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index by DGTPsychology of a Market Cycle - Where are we in the cycle?
Before proceeding with the question "where", let's first have a quick look at "What is market psychology?"
Market psychology is the idea that the movements of a market reflect the emotional state of its participants. It is one of the main topics of behavioral economics - an interdisciplinary field that investigates the various factors that precede economic decisions. Many believe that emotions are the main driving force behind the shifts of financial markets and that the overall fluctuating investor sentiment is what creates the so-called psychological market cycles - which is also dynamic.
Stages of Investor Emotions:
* Optimism – A positive outlook encourages us about the future, leading us to buy stocks.
* Excitement – Having seen some of our initial ideas work, we begin considering what our market success could allow us to accomplish.
* Thrill – At this point we investors cannot believe our success and begin to comment on how smart we are.
* Euphoria – This marks the point of maximum financial risk. Having seen every decision result in quick, easy profits, we begin to ignore risk and expect every trade to become profitable.
* Anxiety – For the first time the market moves against us. Having never stared at unrealized losses, we tell ourselves we are long-term investors and that all our ideas will eventually work.
* Denial – When markets have not rebounded, yet we do not know how to respond, we begin denying either that we made poor choices or that things will not improve shortly.
* Fear – The market realities become confusing. We believe the stocks we own will never move in our favor.
* Desperation – Not knowing how to act, we grasp at any idea that will allow us to get back to breakeven.
* Panic – Having exhausted all ideas, we are at a loss for what to do next.
* Capitulation – Deciding our portfolio will never increase again, we sell all our stocks to avoid any future losses.
* Despondency – After exiting the markets we do not want to buy stocks ever again. This often marks the moment of greatest financial opportunity.
* Depression – Not knowing how we could be so foolish, we are left trying to understand our actions.
* Hope – Eventually we return to the realization that markets move in cycles, and we begin looking for our next opportunity.
* Relief – Having bought a stock that turned profitable, we renew our faith that there is a future in investing.
It's hard to predict with certainty where we exactly are in the market cycle, we can only make an educated guess as to the rough stage based on data available. And here comes the study "Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index"
Factors taken into account in this study include:
1-Price Momentum : Price Divergence/Convergence versus its Slow Moving Average
2-Strenght : Rate of Return (RoR) also called Return on Investment (ROI) is a performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment, net gain or loss of an investment over a specified time period, the rate of change in price movement over a period of time to help investors determine the strength
3-Money Flow : Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure Money Flow Volume over a set period of time. CMF can be used as a way to further quantify changes in buying and selling pressure and can help to anticipate future changes and therefore trading opportunities. CMF calculations is based on Accumulation/Distribution
4-Market Volatility : CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments. It is also known by other names like "Fear Gauge" or "Fear Index." Investors, research analysts and portfolio managers look to VIX values as a way to measure market risk, fear and stress before they take investment decisions
5-Safe Haven Demand : in this study GOLD demand is assumed
What to look for :
*Fear and Greed Index as explained above,
*Divergencies
Tool tip of the label displayed provides details of references
Conclusion:
As investors, we always get caught up in the day to day price movements, and lose sight of the bigger picture. The biggest crashes happen not when investors are cautious and fearful, it's when they're euphoric and expecting financial instruments to continue going higher. So as we continue investing, don’t forget to stop and ask yourself, where in the chart do you think we are right now? The Market Psychology Cycle shines light on how emotions evolve, fear and greed index can come in handy, provided that it is not the only tool used to make investment decisions. It is easy to look back at market cycles and recognize how the overall psychology changed. Analyzing previous data makes it obvious what actions and decisions would have been the most profitable. However, it is much harder to understand how the market is changing as it goes - and even harder to predict what comes next. Many investors use technical analysis (TA) to attempt to anticipate where the market is likely to go. Investors are advised to keep tabs on fear for potential buying the dips opportunities and view periods of greed as a potential indicator that financial instruments might be overvalued.
Warren Buffett's quote, buy when others are fearful, and sell when others are greedy
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
Disclaimer : The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitute professional and/or financial advice. You alone have the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
RiskOnRiskOff #SPX500 v3Riskon mode refers to a generalized perception of low risk in financial markets. Riskoff mode is the exact opposite. In this case, the perception of risk is high and drives investors away. In a riskon scenario, the market trend will continue to rise and, conversely, in riskoff mode, significant falls in the market can be expected. This indicator assesses the RiskOnRiskOff sentiment for # SPX500.
Trend Risk Indicator (TRI)The Trend Risk Indicator is a simple bands indicator made of 2 custom averages of candlesticks ranges calculated within the variable “ BandBars ” period.
Upper and lower channel bands width can be adjusted with the “ Deviation ” variable, which act as a simple factor to enlarge the spread between them.
When Close crosses over the upper band, it is a bearish signal and candlesticks are painted in Red.
When Close crosses under the lower band, it’s a bullish signal and candlesticks are painted in Green.
One of the most interesting indicators for 1 minute scalping. Recommended to use on Renko bars.
*drag to chart and pin to scale, also remove borders from candlesticks.
Systematic Momentum strategy v 1.0Systematic Momentum strategy v 1.0
This is a long-only strategy optimized taking into consideration the underlying's momentum and volatily.
Long story short it opens positions when the momentum is highest and the risk is lowest and closes the same position when the risk-to-reward is no longer optimal.
How to use:
-> To be used on an Index or a tracker ETF
-> Position sizing should be set up to 100% of the portfolio
Drawdown SimulatorDrawdown Simulator.
Will simulate a series of percent based stop losses being triggered in a row if you risked x% of capital per trade.
Also simulates what the capital outcome would be if you were in a leveraged position.
Default settings simulate the use of $3000 starting capital balance , 1% Risk per trade and 5 Losing trades in a row with no leverage (1x).
This will not account of commission fees.
Daily Risk RangeThis was inspired by Hedgeye's Risk Ranges product and calculates daily risk ranges for assets. It uses volatility , the volatility of volatility , the skew of volatility and price to calculate a range that can be used for entries either long or short.
Message me for a free 7-day trial and pricing
Position Size CalculatorThis is a script to help you determine your position sizing. I've attempted to make it as easy to use as possible.
Do you have a set 'R' that you risk per trade? Simply check the box for manual R and enter your risk amount.
If you do not have a set amount to risk, you can input your portfolio size and your percentage to risk per trade.
You'll select long or short and then input your entry and stop. If you do not enter a target then the reward will read NaN for Not a Number.
By default, calculations are done in USD. If you are using a different base currency to calculate positions, risk, or profits, simply un-check that box near the bottom of the inputs. You can also re-color the label or move the label around.
Relative Normalized VolatilityThere are plenty of indicators that aim to measure the volatility (degree of variation) in the price of an instrument, the most well known being the average true range and the rolling standard deviation. Volatility indicators form the key components of most bands and trailing stops indicators, but can also be used to normalize oscillators, they are therefore extremely versatile.
Today proposed indicator aim to compare the estimated volatility of two instruments in order to provide various informations to the user, especially about risk and profitability.
CALCULATION
The relative normalized volatility (RNV) indicator is the ratio between the moving average of the absolute normalized price changes value of two securities, that is:
SMA(|Δ(a)/σ(a)|)
―――――――――――
SMA(|Δ(b)/σ(b)|)
Where a and b are two different securities (note that notation "Δ(x)" refer to the 1st difference of x, and the "||" notation is used to indicate absolute value, for example "|x|" means absolute value of x) .
INTERPRETATION
The indicator aim tell us which security is more volatile between a and b , with a value of the indicator greater than 1 indicating that a is on average more volatile than b over the last length period, while a value lower than 1 indicating that the security b is more on average volatile than a .
The indicator use the current symbol as a , while the second security b must be defined in the setting window (by default the S&P500). Risk and profitability are closely related to volatility, as larger price variations could potentially mean larger losses (but also larger gains), therefore a value of the indicator greater than 1 can indicate that it could be more risked (and profitable) to trade security a .
RNV using AMD (top) volatility against Intel (bottom) volatility.
RNV using EURUSD (top) volatility against USDJPY (bottom) volatility.
Larger values of length will make the indicator fluctuate less often around 1. You can also plot the logarithm of the ratio instead in order to have the indicator centered around 0, it will also help make values originally below 1 have more importance in the scale.
POSSIBLE ERRORS
If you compare different types of markets the indicator might return NaN values, this is because one market might be closed, for example if you compare AMD against BTCUSD with the indicator you will get NaN values. If you really need to compare two markets then increase your time frame, else use an histogram or area plot in order to have a cleaner plot.
CONCLUSION
An original indicator comparing the volatility between two securities has been presented. The choice of posting a volatility indicator has been made by my twitter followers, so if you want to decide which type of indicator i should do next make sure to check my twitter to see if there are polls available (i should do one after every posted indicator).
Reticulata Enhanced - StrategyThis script is the backtesting for Reticulata Enhanced.
Building on our core script - Reticulata, the enhanced version features several requested extras to give you more flexibility with your trading style.
What is Reticulata Enhanced?
The Reticulata core leverages a blend of MA/RSI strategies mixed with the Bull Bear Bots optimised logic for risk management. This enhanced version takes it a step further with additional risk management features:
Trailing Stop
Fixed Stop
Fixed Stop, but move at TP
Trend confirmation
Usage
Using the indicator is as simple as:
1. Select the strategy, or combination of strategies you want to use
2. If desired, select one or more of the available trend filters
3. Adjust your stop options
4. Review backtest results
Markets
Like the core, the enhanced algo also supports a range of markets and timeframes, including the majors (EURUSD, etc...) in Forex and a variety of Cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin (BTC/XBT etc...).
All of our scripts are designed for manual traders but are ready to use with automated trading bots.
Quansium Allocation RatioThis tool finds the most optimal allocation size for each trading setup. It has 3 modes.
Basic (it meets the minimum profitability requirements):
% Profitable: the probability of winning and is calculated by dividing the number of winning trades by the total number of trades.
Profit Ratio: a measure of the ability to generate profit instead of loss and is calculated by taking the average profit from all winning trades divided by the average losses on all losing trades.
Medium (it takes into account the maximum loss to stabilize the overall risk among the partitions):
Max Drawdown: the "worst-case scenario" for a trading period. It measures the greatest distance, or loss, from a previous equity peak.
Advanced (loss is not the only risk taken, the reward to risk ratio must also be accounted for):
Monthly Profit: the amount of average return a system provides on a monthly basis.
Monthly Loss: the highest loss given during the period of a month. It can be substituted by the Max Drawdown.
Notes :
The "check boxes" inputs are there as cosmetic separators.
"Basic" mode comes with preset values. To activate other modes, you must use a value higher than "0".
This shows the amount of percentage you should allocate for the setup you inserted the metrics for.
It is recommended to get values for each mode and find out on past data which works best for you.
ATR based Stop and Take-Profit levels in realtime Little tool to quickly identify stops and take-profit levels based on Average True Range. User can change ATR multipiers, as well as the ATR length used. Green and red lines show these levels; plot is visible over last 8 bars only to reduce clutter. Label showing the current ATR, up above the last bar
Risk Analysis PanelThis Risk Analysis Panel is a great tool to assess risk associated during entry and best possible entry price including with your preferred take profit %
GUIDELINE
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
Volume Ratio: More than 1 is good indicator. The higher the better
Risk/Reward Ratio: Less than 1 is good indicator. The lower the better
(15) Trade Risk Reduction VS-132TRR calculates the volatility of your stock. This is just the magnitude of each days price fluctuations, or what technicians refer to as the True Range. TRR averages the True Range (ATR) over three different time periods.
Why three? You want a sensitive indicator that reflect both the long term historical volatility of the equity as well as what that volatility is right now. Obviously the most recent trading days are the most important. The three ATR periods and their weighting factors are:
1) We use a 251 day period which equates to 1 trading year because we want to know what the historical volatility is. This one year period is not weighted.
2) We utilize a 21 day period because the most recent weeks tells us what the stock volatility has been over the previous calendar month. This is weighted by a factor of 2.
3) Finally, we utilize the last weeks data, Last 5 days, (L5D) to provide us with the stocks movement in the most recent trading days. This is weighted by a factor of 4.
The total of ATR251*(1) + ATR21*(2) + ATR5*(4) is then divided by the total of all factors (7).
This results in the Weighted Average True Range that the Trade Risk Reduction utilizes to produce the dynamic bands on your charts as well as power the Risk and Stop loss calculators. These indicate where this indicator is currently recommending you place stops. In the Format options of the application you are provided with the ability to adjust these band. Keep in mind that each stock will act in it's own unique and characteristic way. Looking closely at the stock's historical data, both in longer and shorter time periods should provide you with some insight into the normal variations and fluctuations of this particular equity. Below EBAY provides an example of this.
Access this Genie indicator for your Tradingview account, through our web site. (Links Below) This will provide you with additional educational information and reference articles, videos, input and setting options and trading strategies this indicator excels in.
risk indicator (btc)Designed specifically for Bitcoin on the daily chart, this indicator calculates risk, based on average divergence and extension.
Zone transitions are specific areas of interest, for example, where entering green zone below value .17 a low risk period with very good buying opportunities begins.
On the other hand transitions into red zones, for example above .57 indicate high-risk areas with good selling opportunities.
Best_TradersStreamIn this Indicator you will find SMA 50, SMA 30 and 40 Cross Over, Bollinger Band filled with Green and Red Colors and Finally Risk calculator to calculate Risk per Trade and Qty per Trade. This tool is Especially useful to Intraday Trading.
Risk Calculator_Traders StreamHello Guys here we introducing another important tool, in that you can calculate how much Risk you want to take for that trade and what is the wiggle room for Stop Loss from your Distal line. Not only that now you can get how much qty you have to buy as per risk calculation. Please comment below for any information.......
Stop Loss_Traders StreamHello Guys we created another tool to calculate your Risk / Stop Loss per Trade. This will automatically calculates the DATR and as per your Risk Input it will calculate and show Stop Loss Price and even it will draw a Red coloured Horizontal line for your reference. Before changing stock don't forget to make Zero @ "Distal Line of DZ / SZ". Please post if any recommendations.........
Sneaky PatternSneaky pattern to grab some point on low TF with minimum risk
USE ON LOW TF: 1M TO 10M
the way to use is described on picture below.
The blue are is the order area
Once you order is hit (in this case long position) you can locate you stop-loss sticky (in this case I used the blue area = yellow area price spread to set stop-loss)
Distribution Position Size Panel
This panel is an example position size panel that I prepared and I consider the rates reasonable.
I have prepared this panel so that the money allocated to the investment ends 14 consecutive signals.
The sum of the ratios is 100 units.
You can adjust your positions according to this panel.
The first steps are low rates.
If the phrases are strong, you can specify a position size from the lower digits.
Likewise, when you make a big profit, you can empty your profits in the lower steps.
In the event of a color change, you can return to the beginning or lower limit.
NOTE: This script is an auxiliary command to the distribution blocks script,
if you want to use another script, you can add distribution days to yours.
14 th stake does not appear in the preview, you need to reduce the size of the distribution blocks indicator slightly.
Rafael Zioni's examples of the panels helped a lot, thanks to him.
Stay tuned ! Regards , Noldo.
Distribution BlocksThis idea has been created by the combination of the two existing systems as a result of my efforts to create a distributional buying and selling guide that has plagued my head for a long time.
1st idea is Accumulation / Distribution Line :
2nd idea is Distribution Day :
These two ideas, the intellectual assistance of professional brokers, and my observations of cot data played a role in the formation of this idea.
Let's start.
No matter how often we divide our risk, both our minds are not comfortable and our capital may end at any moment, and if we do not use professional systems, our chances of success are 50 percent.
If we take this system as an aid to our classic systems, we can determine the amount of risk with those predictions and gradually trade.
If we don't use leverage and we have a little predictive ability, our chances of success go above 50 percent.
But for the first time, we can keep our first lot very low and increase the number of positions in the same order of orders (example: buy and buy and buy).
If we keep the first amount low, the folds won't hurt us.
When we catch up with the trend, purchases with larger position sizes than lower prices lower our average price, so that we can make a good profit when the rising trend starts.
By accepting the zone changes as the reset point just like in the martingale system, we enter the folds in the new zone with our first lot weight.
Although we cannot catch the trend, we determine the stoploss level by adding the first point we entered or the first point we entered and the commission cost.
In fact, this method is the method of buying and selling very large traders and producers, banks, pro-brokers, hedge funds and in other words the new popular phrase "whales".
Because if he trades otherwise, he cannot find buyers because his goods are too big.
I like the comfort of mind in this way.
Finally, your methods separating the negative and positive regions (macd, rsi, interpretation observation etc.)
the stronger you are, the higher your success rate.
I think the Accumulation Distribution method is very successful, but it can be adjusted for the period.
I can't wait to integrate my relativity system on this.
And when my deep learning series is over, I will integrate them on ANN series and share them publicly.
To start with, I can say briefly.
If your capital is 100:
(first lot + (increase multiplier * first lot) + (increase multiplier * increase multiplier * first lot) + .....) = 100
I tell you that you can have the same position in this series 10 - 15 times,
this will help you decide how small a position size is to be used as the starting rate and choose a low increment multiplier!
I think that this idea cannot be converted into strategy, because when our expectations come true, we may want to free all positions and start again.And I think that's better.
And in sudden movements and developments we take action with different expectations.
I'm going to talk about this script's calculations and profits on educational ideas.
Regards , Noldo.
minimum risk V.1Was playing around and I've had this idea: most of day traders looking for catching price swings and sometimes they forgot about risk, so I was keeping focus not on price swings but on risk-momentum: the idea was to catch daily moments when the risk was minimum and this is the result.
There are some rules to use it correctly
1. Use it on lower timeframe (1M to 30M) best --> 1M to 5M
2. Do not open position on every signal !! keep focusing on the price
3. works better on Forex
upin and doin input: you can change it and you will see more signals but keep this inputs low as it is a filter I'm using for signals
I will update the indicator if I found new ideas
Enjoy!!
