Bollinger Bounce Reversal Strategy – Visual EditionOverview:
The Bollinger Bounce Reversal Strategy – Visual Edition is designed to capture potential reversal moves at price extremes—often termed “bounce points”—by using a combination of technical indicators. The strategy integrates Bollinger Bands, MACD, and volume analysis, and it provides rich on‑chart visual cues to help traders understand its signals and conditions. Additionally, the strategy enforces a maximum of 5 trades per day and uses fixed risk management parameters. This publication is intended for educational purposes and offers a systematic, transparent approach that you can further adjust to fit your market or risk profile.
How It Works:
Bollinger Bands:
A 20‑period simple moving average (SMA) and a user‑defined standard deviation multiplier (default 2.0) are used to calculate the Bollinger Bands.
When the price reaches or crosses these bands (i.e. falls below the lower band or rises above the upper band), it suggests that the price is in an extreme, potentially oversold or overbought, state.
MACD Filter:
The MACD (calculated with standard lengths, e.g. 12, 26, 9) provides momentum information.
For a bullish (long) signal, the MACD line should be above its signal line; for a bearish (short) signal, the MACD line should be below.
Volume Confirmation:
The strategy uses a 20‑period volume moving average to determine if current volume is strong enough to validate a signal.
A signal is confirmed only if the current volume is at or above a specified multiple (by default, 1.0×) of this moving average, ensuring that the move is supported by increased market participation.
Visual Cues:
Bollinger Bands and Fill: The basis (SMA), upper, and lower Bollinger Bands are plotted, and the area between the upper and lower bands is filled with a semi‑transparent color.
Signal Markers: When a long or short signal is generated, corresponding markers (labels) appear on the chart.
Background Coloring: The chart’s background changes color (green for long signals and red for short signals) on the bars where signals occur.
Information Table: An on‑chart table displays key indicator values (MACD, signal line, volume, average volume) and the number of trades executed that day.
Entry Conditions:
Long Entry:
A long trade is triggered when the previous bar’s close is below the lower Bollinger Band and the current bar’s close crosses above it, combined with a bullish MACD condition and strong volume.
Short Entry:
A short trade is triggered when the previous bar’s close is above the upper Bollinger Band and the current bar’s close crosses below it, with a bearish MACD condition and high volume.
Risk Management:
Daily Trade Limit: The strategy restricts trading to no more than 5 trades per day.
Stop-Loss and Take-Profit:
For each position, a stop loss is set at a fixed percentage away from the entry price (typically 2%), and a take profit is set to target a 1:2 risk-reward ratio (typically 4% from the entry price).
Backtesting Setup:
Initial Capital: $10,000
Commission: 0.1% per trade
Slippage: 1 tick per bar
These realistic parameters help ensure that backtesting results reflect the conditions of an average trader.
Disclaimer:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This strategy is experimental and provided solely for educational purposes. It is essential to backtest extensively and paper trade before any live deployment. All risk management practices are advisory, and you should adjust parameters to suit your own trading style and risk tolerance.
Conclusion:
By combining Bollinger Bands, MACD, and volume analysis, the Bollinger Bounce Reversal Strategy – Visual Edition provides a clear, systematic method to identify potential reversal opportunities at price extremes. The added visual cues help traders quickly interpret signals and assess market conditions, while strict risk management and a daily trade cap help keep trading disciplined. Adjust and refine the settings as needed to better suit your specific market and risk profile.
Ketidakstabilan
Bollinger Bands Long Strategy
This strategy is designed for identifying and executing long trades based on Bollinger Bands and RSI. It aims to capitalize on potential oversold conditions and subsequent price recovery.
Key Features:
- Bollinger Bands (10,2): The strategy uses Bollinger Bands with a 10-period moving average and a multiplier of 2 to define price volatility.
- RSI Filter: A trade is only triggered when the RSI (14-period) is below 30, ensuring entry during oversold conditions.
- Entry Condition: A long trade is entered immediately when the price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI is under 30.
- Exit Condition: The position is exited when the price reaches or crosses above the Bollinger Band basis (20-period moving average).
Best Used For:
- Identifying oversold conditions with a strong potential for a rebound.
- Markets or assets with clear oscillations and volatility e.g., BTC.
**Disclaimer:** This strategy is for educational purposes and should be used with caution. Backtesting and risk management are essential before live trading.
GOLD Volume-Based Entry StrategyShort Description:
This script identifies potential long entries by detecting two consecutive bars with above-average volume and bullish price action. When these conditions are met, a trade is entered, and an optional profit target is set based on user input. This strategy can help highlight momentum-driven breakouts or trend continuations triggered by a surge in buying volume.
How It Works
Volume Moving Average
A simple moving average of volume (vol_ma) is calculated over a user-defined period (default: 20 bars). This helps us distinguish when volume is above or below recent averages.
Consecutive Green Volume Bars
First bar: Must be bullish (close > open) and have volume above the volume MA.
Second bar: Must also be bullish, with volume above the volume MA and higher than the first bar’s volume.
When these two bars appear in sequence, we interpret it as strong buying pressure that could drive price higher.
Entry & Profit Target
Upon detecting these two consecutive bullish bars, the script places a long entry.
A profit target is set at current price plus a user-defined fixed amount (default: 5 USD).
You can adjust this target, or you can add a stop-loss in the script to manage risk further.
Visual Cues
Buy Signal Marker appears on the chart when the second bar confirms the signal.
Green Volume Columns highlight the bars that fulfill the criteria, providing a quick visual confirmation of high-volume bullish bars.
Works fine on 1M-2M-5M-15M-30M. Do not use it on higher TF. Due the lack of historical data on lower TF, the backtest result is limited.
ATR SuperTrend - IonJauregui-ActivTradesEste script en Pine Script utiliza el indicador SuperTrend basado en el ATR para identificar tendencias y generar señales de compra y venta.
¿Cómo funciona?
Detecta la volatilidad con el ATR para calcular niveles dinámicos de soporte y resistencia.
Dibuja la tendencia:
Línea verde: Tendencia alcista.
Línea roja: Tendencia bajista.
Genera señales de trading:
Compra cuando la tendencia pasa de bajista a alcista.
Venta cuando cambia de alcista a bajista.
Opera de forma automática:
Abre posiciones según las señales.
Establece stop loss y take profit para gestionar el riesgo.
Este indicador ayuda a seguir la tendencia y automatizar operaciones, filtrando el ruido del mercado.
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This Pine Script uses the SuperTrend indicator based on ATR to identify trends and generate buy and sell signals.
How it works:
Detects volatility with ATR to calculate dynamic support and resistance levels.
Plots the trend:
Green line: Bullish trend.
Red line: Bearish trend.
Generates trading signals:
Buy when the trend switches from bearish to bullish.
Sell when it switches from bullish to bearish.
Trades automatically:
Opens positions based on the signals.
Sets stop loss and take profit to manage risk.
This indicator helps follow the trend and automate trades, filtering out market noise.
High-Low Breakout Strategy with ATR traling Stop LossThis script is a TradingView Pine Script strategy that implements a High-Low Breakout Strategy with ATR Trailing Stop.created by SK WEALTH GURU, Here’s a breakdown of its key components:
Features and Functionality
Custom Timeframe and High-Low Detection
Allows users to select a custom timeframe (default: 30 minutes) to detect high and low levels.
Tracks the high and low within a user-specified period (e.g., first 30 minutes of the session).
Draws horizontal lines for high and low, persisting for a specified number of days.
Trade Entry Conditions
Long Entry: If the closing price crosses above the recorded high.
Short Entry: If the closing price crosses below the recorded low.
The user can choose to trade Long, Short, or Both.
ATR-Based Trailing Stop & Risk Management
Uses Average True Range (ATR) with a multiplier (default: 3.5) to determine a dynamic trailing stop-loss.
Trades reset daily, ensuring a fresh start each day.
Trade Execution and Partial Profit Taking
Stop-loss: Default at 1% of entry price.
Partial profit: Books 50% of the position at 3% profit.
Max 2 trades per day: If the first trade hits stop-loss, the strategy allows one re-entry.
Intraday Exit Condition
All positions close at 3:15 PM to ensure no overnight risk.
IU Range Trading StrategyIU Range Trading Strategy
The IU Range Trading Strategy is designed to identify range-bound markets and take trades based on defined price ranges. This strategy uses a combination of price ranges and ATR (Average True Range) to filter entry conditions and incorporates a trailing stop-loss mechanism for better trade management.
User Inputs:
- Range Length: Defines the number of bars to calculate the highest and lowest price range (default: 10).
- ATR Length: Sets the length of the ATR calculation (default: 14).
- ATR Stop-Loss Factor: Determines the multiplier for the ATR-based stop-loss (default: 2.00).
Entry Conditions:
1. A range is identified when the difference between the highest and lowest prices over the selected range is less than or equal to 1.75 times the ATR.
2. Once a valid range is formed:
- A long trade is triggered at the range high.
- A short trade is triggered at the range low.
Exit Conditions:
1. Trailing Stop-Loss:
- The stop-loss adjusts dynamically using ATR targets.
- The strategy locks in profits as the trade moves in your favor.
2. The stop-loss and take-profit levels are visually plotted for transparency and easier decision-making.
Features:
- Automated box creation to visualize the trading range.
- Supports one position at a time, canceling opposite-side entries.
- ATR-based trailing stop-loss for effective risk management.
- Clear visual representation of stop-loss and take-profit levels with colored bands.
This strategy works best in markets with defined ranges and can help traders identify breakout opportunities when the price exits the range.
Dynamic Ticks Oscillator Model (DTOM)The Dynamic Ticks Oscillator Model (DTOM) is a systematic trading approach grounded in momentum and volatility analysis, designed to exploit behavioral inefficiencies in the equity markets. It focuses on the NYSE Down Ticks, a metric reflecting the cumulative number of stocks trading at a lower price than their previous trade. As a proxy for market sentiment and selling pressure, this indicator is particularly useful in identifying shifts in investor behavior during periods of heightened uncertainty or volatility (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993).
Theoretical Basis
The DTOM builds on established principles of momentum and mean reversion in financial markets. Momentum strategies, which seek to capitalize on the persistence of price trends, have been shown to deliver significant returns in various asset classes (Carhart, 1997). However, these strategies are also susceptible to periods of drawdown due to sudden reversals. By incorporating volatility as a dynamic component, DTOM adapts to changing market conditions, addressing one of the primary challenges of traditional momentum models (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
Sentiment and Volatility as Core Drivers
The NYSE Down Ticks serve as a proxy for short-term negative sentiment. Sudden increases in Down Ticks often signal panic-driven selling, creating potential opportunities for mean reversion. Behavioral finance studies suggest that investor overreaction to negative news can lead to temporary mispricings, which systematic strategies can exploit (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985). By incorporating a rate-of-change (ROC) oscillator into the model, DTOM tracks the momentum of Down Ticks over a specified lookback period, identifying periods of extreme sentiment.
In addition, the strategy dynamically adjusts entry and exit thresholds based on recent volatility. Research indicates that incorporating volatility into momentum strategies can enhance risk-adjusted returns by improving adaptability to market conditions (Moskowitz, Ooi, & Pedersen, 2012). DTOM uses standard deviations of the ROC as a measure of volatility, allowing thresholds to contract during calm markets and expand during turbulent ones. This approach helps mitigate false signals and aligns with findings that volatility scaling can improve strategy robustness (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
Practical Implications
The DTOM framework is particularly well-suited for systematic traders seeking to exploit behavioral inefficiencies while maintaining adaptability to varying market environments. By leveraging sentiment metrics such as the NYSE Down Ticks and combining them with a volatility-adjusted momentum oscillator, the strategy addresses key limitations of traditional trend-following models, such as their lagging nature and susceptibility to reversals in volatile conditions.
References
• Barroso, P., & Santa-Clara, P. (2015). Momentum Has Its Moments. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 111–120.
• Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 57–82.
• De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793–805.
• Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91.
• Moskowitz, T. J., Ooi, Y. H., & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Time Series Momentum. Journal of Financial Economics, 104(2), 228–250.
Volatility-Adjusted Rate of Change (VARC) ModelThe Volatility-Adjusted Rate of Change (VARC) Model is a dynamic trading strategy designed to identify potential market opportunities by incorporating volatility and skewness data. The model relies on the CBOE Skew Index (CBOE:SKEW) and adjusts the traditional Rate of Change (ROC) indicator based on market volatility, offering a more refined approach to trading based on price momentum.
1. CBOE Skew Index (SKEW) and ROC Calculation
At its core, the VARC model uses the CBOE Skew Index as a measure of market sentiment. The SKEW index represents the perceived risk of extreme negative movements in the S&P 500, providing insight into the balance of risks in the market (CBOE, 2021). This sentiment-based index is often used by traders and analysts to gauge the likelihood of a market downturn.
The Rate of Change (ROC) is applied to the Skew Index, calculated over a specified lookback period (rocLength = 29). The ROC measures the percentage change in price from one period to another and is widely used to gauge the momentum of an asset (Chande & Kroll, 1994). In the VARC model, the ROC of the Skew Index is employed to assess shifts in market sentiment that may signal turning points or potential volatility.
2. Volatility Adjustment
Volatility plays a significant role in market behavior and risk management. The VARC model uses a volatility-adjusted threshold to dynamically adjust the sensitivity of the trading signals. This is achieved by calculating the standard deviation of the ROC over a defined volatility lookback period (volatilityLookback = 20) and applying a volatility multiplier (volatilityMultiplier = 1.5). These parameters define upper and lower thresholds for trade entry and exit.
The model adjusts the sensitivity of the ROC signals based on market volatility, ensuring that the strategy adapts to changing market conditions. When volatility is high, the thresholds are widened, allowing the model to filter out noise and avoid unnecessary trades. Conversely, during periods of low volatility, the thresholds tighten, enabling the model to capture smaller price movements.
3. Entry and Exit Conditions
The VARC model generates trading signals based on the behavior of the ROC relative to the dynamically adjusted volatility thresholds. A long position is initiated when the ROC crosses below the lower threshold, indicating that the market is becoming oversold or showing signs of excessive pessimism. The position is closed when the ROC exceeds the upper threshold, signaling a potential reversal or a return to normal market conditions. These entry and exit conditions are defined as follows:
• Long Condition: The ROC is below the lower threshold (roc < dynamicThresholdLow).
• Exit Condition: The ROC is above the upper threshold (roc > dynamicThresholdHigh).
This approach provides a systematic method for entering and exiting positions based on volatility-adjusted momentum, helping traders to capitalize on shifts in market sentiment.
4. Visualization and Signal Highlighting
The model includes several visual aids to help traders interpret the signals. The ROC, dynamic thresholds, and a zero line are plotted on the chart to provide a clear representation of market momentum and the current trading range. Furthermore, a background color is used to highlight periods when a position is open, visually reinforcing the model’s decisions.
5. Conclusion
The VARC model offers a robust framework for trading by combining momentum (through the ROC) with a volatility-adjusted approach that refines trade signals based on market conditions. The use of the CBOE Skew Index adds an additional layer of market sentiment analysis, providing context to the ROC values. This volatility-adaptive strategy offers traders a more nuanced way to navigate the markets, making it suitable for both short-term and longer-term trading horizons.
References:
• CBOE. (2021). CBOE Skew Index (SKEW). Chicago Board Options Exchange. Retrieved from www.cboe.com
• Chande, T., & Kroll, J. (1994). The New Technical Trader: Boost Your Profit by Plugging into the Latest Indicators. Wiley.
This model can be particularly useful in volatile markets, where traditional fixed thresholds may not perform as well. By adjusting the thresholds dynamically based on the underlying volatility, the VARC model offers a more flexible and responsive approach to market trading.
Liquidity Trading Algorithm (LTA)
The Liquidity Trading Algorithm is an algorithm designed to provide trade signals based on
liquidity conditions in the market. The underlying algorithm is based on the Liquidity
Dependent Price Movement (LDPM) metric and the Liquidity Dependent Price Stability (LDPS)
algorithm.
Together, LDPM and LDPS demonstrate statistically significant forecasting capabilities for price-
action on equities, cryptocurrencies, and futures. LTA takes these liquidity measurements and
translates them into actionable insights by way of entering or exiting a position based
on the future outlooks, as measured by the current liquidity status.
The benefit of LTA is that it can incorporate these powerful liquidity measurements into
actionable insights with several features designed to help you tailor LTA's behavior and
measurements to your desired vantage point. These customizable features come by the way of determining LTA's assessment style, and additional monitoring systems for avoiding bear and bull traps, along with various other quality of life features, discussed in more detail below.
First, a few quick facts:
- LTA is compatible on a wide array of instruments, including Equities, Futures, Cryptocurrencies, and Forex.
- LTA is compatible on most intervals in so long as the data can be calculated appropriately,
(be sure to do a backtest on timescales less than 1-minue to ensure the data can be computed).
- LTA only measures liquidity at the end of the interval of the chart chosen, and does not respond to conditions during the candle interval, unless specified (such as with `Stops`).
- LTA is interval-dependent, this means it will measure and behave differently on different
intervals as the underlying algorithms are dependent on the interval chosen.
- LTA can utilize fractional share sizing for cryptocurrencies.
- LTA can be restricted to either bullish or bearish indications.
- Additional Monitoring Systems are available for additional risk mitigation.
In short, LTA is a widely applicable, unique algorithm designed to translate liquidity measurements into liquidity insights.
Before getting more into the details, here is a quick list of the main features and settings
available for customization:
- Backtesting Start Date: Manual selection of the start date for the algorithm during backtesting.
- Assessment Style: adjust how LDPM and LDPS measure and respond to changes in liquidity.
- Impose Wait: force LTA to wait before entering or exiting a position to ensure conditions have remained conducive.
- Trade Direction Allowance: Restrict LTA to only long or only short, if desired.
- Position Sizing Method: determine how LTA calculates position sizing.
- Fractional Share Sizing: allow LTA to calculate fractional share sizes for cryptocurrencies
- Max Size Limit: Impose a maximum size on LTA's positions.
- Initial Capital: Indicate how much capital LTA should stat with.
- Portfolio Allotment: Indicate to LTA how much (in percentages) of the available balance should be considered when calculating position size.
- Enact Additional Monitoring Systems: Indicate if LTA should impose additional safety criteria when monitoring liquidity.
- Configure Take Profit, Stop-Loss, Trailing Stop Loss
- Display Information tables on the current position, overall strategy performance, along
with a text output showing LTA's processes.
- Real-time text output and updates on LTA's inner workings.
Let's get into some more of the details.
LTA's Assessment Style
LTA's assessment style determines how LTA collects and responds to changing data. In traditional terms, this is akin to (but not quite exactly the same as) the sensitivity versus specificity spectrum, whereby on one end (the sensitive end), an algorithm responds to changes in data in a reactive manner (which tends to lower its specificity, or how often it is correct in its indications), and on the other end, the opposite one, the algorithm foresakes quick changes for longevity of outlook.
While this is in part true, it is not a full view of the underlying mechanisms that changing the assessment style augments. A better analogy would be that the sensitive end of the spectrum (`Aggressive`) is in a state such that the algorithm wants to changing its outlooks, and as such, with changes in data, the algorithm has to be convinced as to why that is not a good idea to change outlooks, whereas the the more specific states (`Conservative`, `Diamond`) must be convinced that their view is no longer valid and that it needs to be changed.
This means the `Aggressive` and the `Diamond` settings fundamentally differ not just in their
data collection, but also in the data processing such that the `Aggressive` decision tree has to
be convinced that the data is the same (as its defualt is that it has changed),
and the `Diamond` decision tree has to be convinced that the data is not the same, and as such, the outlook need changed.
From there, the algorithm cooks through the data and determines to what the outlook should be changed to, given the current state of liquidity.
`Balanced` lies in the middle of this balance, attempting to balance being open to new ideas while not removing the wisdom of the past, as it were.
On a scale of most `sensitive` to most `specific`, it is as follows: `Aggressive`, `Balanced`,
`Conservative`, `Diamond`.
Functionally, these different modes can help in different liquidity environments, as certain
environments are more conducive to an eager approach (such as found near `Aggressive`) or are more conducive to a more conservative approach, where sudden changes in liquidity are known to be short-lived and unremarkable (such as many previously identified bull or bear traps).
For instance, on low interval views, it can often-times be beneficial to keep the algorithm towards the `Sensitive` end, since on the lower-timeframes, the crosswinds can change quite dramatically; whereas on the longer intervals, it may be useful to maintain a more `Specific` algorithm (such as found near `Diamond` mode) setting since longer intervals typically lend themselves to longer time-horizons, which themselves typically lend themselves to "weathering the storm", as it were.
LTA's Assessment Style is also supported by the Additional Monitoring Systems which works
to add sensitivity without sacrificing specificity by enacting a separate monitoring system, as described below.
Additional Monitoring Systems
The Additional Monitoring System (AMS) attempts to add more context to any changes in liquidity conditions as measured, such that LTA as a whole will have an expanded view into any rapidly changing liquidity conditions before these changes manifest in the traditional data streams. The ideal is that this allows for early exits or early entrances to positions "a head of time".
The traditional use of this system is to indicate when liquidity is suggestive of the end of a particular run (be it a bear run or a bull run), so an early exit can be initiated (and thus,
downside averted) even before the data officially showcase such changes. In such cases (when AMS becomes activated), the algorithm will signal to exit any open positions, and will restrict the opening of any new positions.
When a position is exited because of AMS, it is denoted as an `Early Exit` and if a position is prevented from being entered, the text output will display `AM prevented entry...` to indicate that conditions are not meeting AMS' additional standards.
The algorithm will wait to make any actions while `AMS` is `active` and will only enter into a new position once `AMS` has been `deactivated` and overall liquidity conditions are appropriate.
Functionally, the benefits of AMS translate to:
- Toggeling AMS on will typically see a net reduction in overall profitability, but
- AMS will typically (almost always) reduce max drawdown,
an increases in max runup, and increase return-over-maxdrawdown, and
- AMS can provide benefit for equities that experience a lot of "traps" by navigating early
entrance and early exits.
So in short, AMS is way of adding an additional level of liquidity monitoring that attempts to
exit positions if conditions look to be deteriorating, and to enter conditions if they look to be
improving. The cost of this additional monitoring, however, is a greater number of trades indicated, and a lower overall profitability.
Impose Wait
Note: `Impose Wait` will not force Take Profit, Stop Loss, or Trailing Stop Loss to
wait.
LTA can be indicated to `wait` before entering or exiting a position if desired. This means that if conditions change, whereas without a `wait` imposed, the algorithm would immediately indicate this change via a signal to alter the strategy's position, with a `wait` imposed, the algorithm will `wait` the indicated number of bars, and then re-check conditions before proceeding.
If, while waiting, conditions change to a state that is no longer compatible with the "order-in-
waiting", then the order-in-waiting is removed, and the counts reset (i.e.: conditions must remain favorable to the intended positional change throughout the wait period).
Since LTA works at the end-of-intervals, there is an inherently "built-in" wait of 1 bar when
switching directly from long to short (i.e.: if a full switch is indicated, then it is indicated as
conditions change -> exit new position -> wait until -> check conditions ->
enter new position as indicated). Thus, to impose a wait of `1 bar` would be to effectively have a total of two candles' ends prior to the entrance of the new position).
There are two main styles of `Impose Wait` that you can utilize:
- `Wait` : this mode will cause LTA to `wait` when both entering and exiting a position (in so long as it is not an exit signaled via a Take Profit, Stop Loss or Trailing Stop Loss).
- `Exit-Wait` : This mode will >not< cause LTA to `wait` if conditions require the closing of a position, but will force LTA to wait before entering into a position.
Position:
In addition to the availability to restrict LTA to either a long-only or short-only strategy, LTA
also comprises additional flexibility when deciding on how it should navigate the markets with
regards to sizing. Notably, this flexibility benefits several aspects of LTA's existence, namely the ability to determine the `Sizing Method`, or if `Fractional Share Sizing` should be employed, and more, as discussed below.
Position Sizing Method
There are two main ways LTA can determine the size of a position. Either via the `Fixed-Share` choice, or the `Fixed-Percentage` choice.
- `Fixed-Share` will use the amount indicated in the `Max Sizing Limit` field as the position size, always.
Note: With `Fixed-Share` sizing, LTA will >not< check if the balance is sufficient
prior to signaling an entrance.
- `Fixed-Percentage` will use the percentage amount indicated in the `Portfolio Allotment` field as the percentage of available funds to use when calculating the position size. Additionally, with the `Fixed-Percentage` choice, you can set the `Max Sizing Limit` if desired, which will ensure that no position will be entered greater than the amount indicated in the field.
Fractional Share Sizing
If the underlying instrument supports it (typically only cryptocurrencies), share sizing can be
fractionalized. If this is done, the resulting positin size is rounded to `4 digits`. This means any
position with a size less than `0.00005` will be rounded to `0.0000`
Note: Ensure that the underlying instrument supports fractional share sizing prior
to initiating.
Max Sizing Limit
As discussed above, the `Max Sizing Limit` will determine:
- The position size for every position, if `Sizing Method : Fixed-Share` is utilized, or
- The maximum allowed size, regardless of available capital, if `Sizing Method : Fixed-Percentage` is utilized.
Note: There is an internal maximum of 100,000 units.
Initial Capital
Note: There are 2 `Initial Capital` settings; one in LTA's settings and one in the
`Properties` tab. Ensure these two are the same when doing backtesting.
The initial capital field will be used to determine the starting balanace of the strategy, and
is used to calculate the internal data reporting (the data tables).
Portfolio Allotment
You can specify how much of the total available balance should be used when calculating the share size. The default is 100%.
Stops
Note: Stops over-ride `AMS` and `Impose Wait`, and are not restricted to only the
end-of-candle and will occur instantaneously upon their activation. Neither `AMS` nor `Impose Wait` can over-ride a signal from a `Take-Profit`, `Stop-Loss`, or a `Trailing-Stop Loss`.
LTA enhouses three stops that can be configured, a `Take-Profit`, a `Stop-Loss` and a `Trailing-Stop Loss`. The configurations can be set in the settings in percent terms. These exit signals will always over-ride AMS or any other restrictions on position exit.
Their configuration is rather standard; set the percentages you want the signal to be sent at and so it will be done.
Some quick notes on the `Trailing-Stop Loss`:
- The activation percentage must be reached (in profits) prior to the `Traililng-Stop Loss`
from activating the downside protection. For example, if the `Activation Percentage` is 10%, then unless the position reaches (at any point) a 10% profit, then it will not signal any exits on the downside, should it occur.
- The downside price-point is continuously updated and is calculated from the maximum profit reached in the given position and the loss percentage placed in the appropriate field.
Data Tables and Data Output
LTA provides real-time data output through a variety of mechanisms:
- `Position Table`
The `Position Table` displays information about the current position, including:
> Position Duration : how long the position has been open for.
> Indicates if the side is Long or Short, depending on if it is long or short.
> Entry Price: the price the position was entered at.
> Current Price (% Dif): the current price of the underlying and the %-difference between the entry price and the current price.
> Max Profit ($/%): the maximum profit reached in $ and % terms.
> Current PnL ($/%) : the current PnL for the open position.
- `Performance Table`
The `Performance Table` displays information regarding the overall performance of the algorithm since its `Start Date`. These data include:
> Initial Equity ($): The initial equity the algorithm started with.
> Current Equity ($): The current total equity of the account (including open positions)
> Net Profits ($|%) : The overall net profit in $ and % terms.
> Long / Short Trade Counts: The respective trade counts for the positions entered.
> Total Closed Trades: The running sum of the number of trades closed.
> Profitability: The calculation of the number of profitable trades over the total number of
trades.
> Avg. Profit / Trade: The calculation of the average profit per trade in both $ and % terms.
> Avg. Loss / Trade: The calculation of the average loss per trade in both $ and % terms.
> Max Run-Up: The maximum run-up the algorithm has seen in both $ and % terms.
> Max Drawdown: The maximum draw-down the algorithm has seen in both $ and % terms.
> Return-Over-Max-Drawdown: the ratio of the maximum drawdown against the current net profits.
- `Text Output`
LTA will output, if desired, signals to the text output field every time it analysis or performs and action. These messages can include information such as:
"
08:00:00 >> AM Protocol activated ... exiting position ...
08:00:00 >> Exit Order Created for qty: 2, profit: 380 (4.34%)
...
09:30:00 >> Checking conditions ...
09:30:00 >> AM protocol prevented entry ... waiting ...
"
This way, you can keep an eye out on what is happening "under the hood", as it were.
LTA will produce a message at the end of its assessment at the end of each candle interval, as well as when a position is exited due to a `Stop` or due to `AMS` being activated.
Additionally, the `Text Output` includes a initial message, but for space-constraints, this
can be toggled off with the `Blank Text Output` option within LTA's configurations.
For additional information, please refer to the Author's Instructions below.
Sunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi StrategySunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi Strategy
The Sunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi Strategy is a trend-following trading strategy that combines Bollinger Bands with Heikin-Ashi candles for precise market entries and exits. It aims to capitalize on price volatility while ensuring controlled risk through dynamic stop-loss and take-profit levels based on a user-defined Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR).
Key Features:
Trading Window:
The strategy operates within a user-defined time window (e.g., from 09:20 to 15:00) to align with market hours or other preferred trading sessions.
Trade Direction:
Users can select between Long Only, Short Only, or Long/Short trade directions, allowing flexibility depending on market conditions.
Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands are used to identify potential breakout or breakdown zones. The strategy enters trades when price breaks through the upper or lower Bollinger Band, indicating a possible trend continuation.
Heikin-Ashi Candles:
Heikin-Ashi candles help smooth price action and filter out market noise. The strategy uses these candles to confirm trend direction and improve entry accuracy.
Risk Management (Risk-to-Reward Ratio):
The strategy automatically adjusts the take-profit (TP) level and stop-loss (SL) based on the selected Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR). This ensures that trades are risk-managed effectively.
Automated Alerts and Webhooks:
The strategy includes automated alerts for trade entries and exits. Users can set up JSON webhooks for external execution or trading automation.
Active Position Tracking:
The strategy tracks whether there is an active position (long or short) and only exits when price hits the pre-defined SL or TP levels.
Exit Conditions:
The strategy exits positions when either the take-profit (TP) or stop-loss (SL) levels are hit, ensuring risk management is adhered to.
Default Settings:
Trading Window:
09:20-15:00
This setting confines the strategy to the specified hours, ensuring trading only occurs during active market hours.
Strategy Direction:
Default: Long/Short
This allows for both long and short trades depending on market conditions. You can select "Long Only" or "Short Only" if you prefer to trade in one direction.
Bollinger Band Length (bbLength):
Default: 19
Length of the moving average used to calculate the Bollinger Bands.
Bollinger Band Multiplier (bbMultiplier):
Default: 2.0
Multiplier used to calculate the upper and lower bands. A higher multiplier increases the width of the bands, leading to fewer but more significant trades.
Take Profit Multiplier (tpMultiplier):
Default: 2.0
Multiplier used to determine the take-profit level based on the calculated stop-loss. This ensures that the profit target aligns with the selected Risk-to-Reward Ratio.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Default: 1.0
The ratio used to calculate the take-profit relative to the stop-loss. A higher RRR means larger profit targets.
Trade Automation (JSON Webhooks):
Allows for integration with external systems for automated execution:
Long Entry JSON: Customizable entry condition for long positions.
Long Exit JSON: Customizable exit condition for long positions.
Short Entry JSON: Customizable entry condition for short positions.
Short Exit JSON: Customizable exit condition for short positions.
Entry Logic:
Long Entry:
The strategy enters a long position when:
The Heikin-Ashi candle shows a bullish trend (green close > open).
The price is above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling a breakout.
The previous candle also closed higher than it opened.
Short Entry:
The strategy enters a short position when:
The Heikin-Ashi candle shows a bearish trend (red close < open).
The price is below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a breakdown.
The previous candle also closed lower than it opened.
Exit Logic:
Take-Profit (TP):
The take-profit level is calculated as a multiple of the distance between the entry price and the stop-loss level, determined by the selected Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR).
Stop-Loss (SL):
The stop-loss is placed at the opposite Bollinger Band level (lower for long positions, upper for short positions).
Exit Trigger:
The strategy exits a trade when either the take-profit or stop-loss level is hit.
Plotting and Visuals:
The Heikin-Ashi candles are displayed on the chart, with green candles for uptrends and red candles for downtrends.
Bollinger Bands (upper, lower, and basis) are plotted for visual reference.
Entry points for long and short trades are marked with green and red labels below and above bars, respectively.
Strategy Alerts:
Alerts are triggered when:
A long entry condition is met.
A short entry condition is met.
A trade exits (either via take-profit or stop-loss).
These alerts can be used to trigger notifications or webhook events for automated trading systems.
Notes:
The strategy is designed for use on intraday charts but can be applied to any timeframe.
It is highly customizable, allowing for tailored risk management and trading windows.
The Sunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi Strategy combines two powerful technical analysis tools (Bollinger Bands and Heikin-Ashi candles) with strong risk management, making it suitable for both beginners and experienced traders.
Feebacks are welcome from the users.
Optimized Engulfing StrategyOptimized Engulfing Strategy
The Optimized Engulfing Strategy is a trend-following system designed to capitalize on bullish and bearish engulfing patterns in the market. It uses a combination of price action, trend direction, and volatility-based risk management to execute high-probability trades.
Key Components:
Bullish Engulfing Pattern:
A bullish engulfing candle is identified when:
The current candle closes above its open (bullish).
The previous candle closes below its open (bearish).
The current candle's close is higher than the previous candle's open.
The current candle's open is lower than the previous candle's close.
This pattern signals potential bullish momentum.
Bearish Engulfing Pattern:
A bearish engulfing candle is identified when:
The current candle closes below its open (bearish).
The previous candle closes above its open (bullish).
The current candle's close is lower than the previous candle's open.
The current candle's open is higher than the previous candle's close.
This pattern signals potential bearish momentum.
Trend Confirmation:
Trades are only taken in the direction of the trend:
Buy: When the 50-period SMA (simple moving average) is above the 200-period SMA, indicating an uptrend.
Sell: When the 50-period SMA is below the 200-period SMA, indicating a downtrend.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Placed below the low of the engulfing candle (for buys) or above the high (for sells), with an additional buffer based on the ATR (Average True Range) multiplied by a user-defined factor (default: 1.5).
Take Profit: Calculated using a fixed risk-to-reward ratio (default: 1:2), ensuring a potential reward that is double the risk.
Session Filtering:
Trades can be limited to specific trading hours using a customizable session filter (default: 24 hours).
Trade Execution:
Separate logic is implemented for buy and sell trades, allowing independent toggling of long or short positions via user inputs.
Visualization:
Bullish and bearish engulfing candles are highlighted on the chart for clarity.
The ATR value is displayed in the top-right corner of the chart for reference.
How It Works:
Identify a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern.
Confirm the direction of the trend using the 50 SMA and 200 SMA.
Ensure the market is within the allowed session filter (e.g., London or New York sessions).
Enter a trade if all conditions are met:
Long trades for bullish engulfing patterns in an uptrend.
Short trades for bearish engulfing patterns in a downtrend.
Manage the trade using a stop loss and take profit based on ATR and the risk-reward ratio.
Systematic Risk Aggregation ModelThe “Systematic Risk Aggregation Model” is a quantitative trading strategy implemented in Pine Script™ designed to assess and visualize market risk by aggregating multiple financial risk factors. This model uses a multi-dimensional scoring approach to quantify systemic risk, incorporating volatility, drawdowns, put/call ratios, tail risk, volume spikes, and the Sharpe ratio. It derives a composite risk score, which is dynamically smoothed and plotted alongside adaptive Bollinger Bands to identify trading opportunities. The strategy’s theoretical framework aligns with modern portfolio theory and risk management literature (Markowitz, 1952; Taleb, 2007).
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Key Components of the Model
1. Volatility as a Risk Proxy
The model calculates the standard deviation of the closing price over a specified period (volatility_length) to quantify market uncertainty. Volatility is normalized to a score between 0 and 100, using its historical minimum and maximum values.
Reference: Volatility has long been regarded as a critical measure of financial risk and uncertainty in capital markets (Hull, 2008).
2. Drawdown Assessment
The drawdown metric captures the relative distance of the current price from the highest price over the specified period (drawdown_length). This is converted into a normalized score to reflect the magnitude of recent losses.
Reference: Drawdown is a key metric in risk management, often used to measure potential downside risk in portfolios (Maginn et al., 2007).
3. Put/Call Ratio as a Sentiment Indicator
The strategy integrates the put/call ratio, sourced from an external symbol, to assess market sentiment. High values often indicate bearish sentiment, while low values suggest bullish sentiment (Whaley, 2000). The score is normalized similarly to other metrics.
4. Tail Risk via Modified Z-Score
Tail risk is approximated using the modified Z-score, which measures the deviation of the closing price from its moving average relative to its standard deviation. This approach captures extreme price movements and potential “black swan” events.
Reference: Taleb (2007) discusses the importance of considering tail risks in financial systems.
5. Volume Spikes as a Proxy for Market Activity
A volume spike is defined as the ratio of current volume to its moving average. This ratio is normalized into a score, reflecting unusual trading activity, which may signal market turning points.
Reference: Volume analysis is a foundational tool in technical analysis and is often linked to price momentum (Murphy, 1999).
6. Sharpe Ratio for Risk-Adjusted Returns
The Sharpe ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of the asset, using the mean log return divided by its standard deviation over the same period. This ratio is transformed into a score, reflecting the attractiveness of returns relative to risk.
Reference: Sharpe (1966) introduced the Sharpe ratio as a standard measure of portfolio performance.
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Composite Risk Score
The composite risk score is calculated as a weighted average of the individual risk factors:
• Volatility: 30%
• Drawdown: 20%
• Put/Call Ratio: 20%
• Tail Risk (Z-Score): 15%
• Volume Spike: 10%
• Sharpe Ratio: 5%
This aggregation captures the multi-dimensional nature of systemic risk and provides a unified measure of market conditions.
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Dynamic Bands with Bollinger Bands
The composite risk score is smoothed using a moving average and bounded by Bollinger Bands (basis ± 2 standard deviations). These bands provide dynamic thresholds for identifying overbought and oversold market conditions:
• Upper Band: Signals overbought conditions, where risk is elevated.
• Lower Band: Indicates oversold conditions, where risk subsides.
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Trading Strategy
The strategy operates on the following rules:
1. Entry Condition: Enter a long position when the risk score crosses above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating elevated market activity.
2. Exit Condition: Close the long position when the risk score drops below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a reduction in risk.
These conditions are consistent with momentum-based strategies and adaptive risk control.
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Conclusion
This script exemplifies a systematic approach to risk aggregation, leveraging multiple dimensions of financial risk to create a robust trading strategy. By incorporating well-established risk metrics and sentiment indicators, the model offers a comprehensive view of market dynamics. Its adaptive framework makes it versatile for various market conditions, aligning with contemporary advancements in quantitative finance.
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References
1. Hull, J. C. (2008). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives. Pearson Education.
2. Maginn, J. L., Tuttle, D. L., McLeavey, D. W., & Pinto, J. E. (2007). Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic Process. Wiley.
3. Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91.
4. Murphy, J. J. (1999). Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. New York Institute of Finance.
5. Sharpe, W. F. (1966). Mutual Fund Performance. The Journal of Business, 39(1), 119–138.
6. Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House.
7. Whaley, R. E. (2000). The Investor Fear Gauge. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12–17.
Dynamic Volatility Differential Model (DVDM)The Dynamic Volatility Differential Model (DVDM) is a quantitative trading strategy designed to exploit the spread between implied volatility (IV) and historical (realized) volatility (HV). This strategy identifies trading opportunities by dynamically adjusting thresholds based on the standard deviation of the volatility spread. The DVDM is versatile and applicable across various markets, including equity indices, commodities, and derivatives such as the FDAX (DAX Futures).
Key Components of the DVDM:
1. Implied Volatility (IV):
The IV is derived from options markets and reflects the market’s expectation of future price volatility. For instance, the strategy uses volatility indices such as the VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq 100), or RVX (Russell 2000), depending on the target market. These indices serve as proxies for market sentiment and risk perception (Whaley, 2000).
2. Historical Volatility (HV):
The HV is computed from the log returns of the underlying asset’s price. It represents the actual volatility observed in the market over a defined lookback period, adjusted to annualized levels using a multiplier of \sqrt{252} for daily data (Hull, 2012).
3. Volatility Spread:
The difference between IV and HV forms the volatility spread, which is a measure of divergence between market expectations and actual market behavior.
4. Dynamic Thresholds:
Unlike static thresholds, the DVDM employs dynamic thresholds derived from the standard deviation of the volatility spread. The thresholds are scaled by a user-defined multiplier, ensuring adaptability to market conditions and volatility regimes (Christoffersen & Jacobs, 2004).
Trading Logic:
1. Long Entry:
A long position is initiated when the volatility spread exceeds the upper dynamic threshold, signaling that implied volatility is significantly higher than realized volatility. This condition suggests potential mean reversion, as markets may correct inflated risk premiums.
2. Short Entry:
A short position is initiated when the volatility spread falls below the lower dynamic threshold, indicating that implied volatility is significantly undervalued relative to realized volatility. This signals the possibility of increased market uncertainty.
3. Exit Conditions:
Positions are closed when the volatility spread crosses the zero line, signifying a normalization of the divergence.
Advantages of the DVDM:
1. Adaptability:
Dynamic thresholds allow the strategy to adjust to changing market conditions, making it suitable for both low-volatility and high-volatility environments.
2. Quantitative Precision:
The use of standard deviation-based thresholds enhances statistical reliability and reduces subjectivity in decision-making.
3. Market Versatility:
The strategy’s reliance on volatility metrics makes it universally applicable across asset classes and markets, ensuring robust performance.
Scientific Relevance:
The strategy builds on empirical research into the predictive power of implied volatility over realized volatility (Poon & Granger, 2003). By leveraging the divergence between these measures, the DVDM aligns with findings that IV often overestimates future volatility, creating opportunities for mean-reversion trades. Furthermore, the inclusion of dynamic thresholds aligns with risk management best practices by adapting to volatility clustering, a well-documented phenomenon in financial markets (Engle, 1982).
References:
1. Christoffersen, P., & Jacobs, K. (2004). The importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39(2), 375-397.
2. Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987-1007.
3. Hull, J. C. (2012). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives. Pearson Education.
4. Poon, S. H., & Granger, C. W. J. (2003). Forecasting volatility in financial markets: A review. Journal of Economic Literature, 41(2), 478-539.
5. Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
This strategy leverages quantitative techniques and statistical rigor to provide a systematic approach to volatility trading, making it a valuable tool for professional traders and quantitative analysts.
Adaptive Momentum Reversion StrategyThe Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy: An Empirical Approach to Market Behavior
The Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy seeks to capitalize on market price dynamics by combining concepts from momentum and mean reversion theories. This hybrid approach leverages a Rate of Change (ROC) indicator along with Bollinger Bands to identify overbought and oversold conditions, triggering trades based on the crossing of specific thresholds. The strategy aims to detect momentum shifts and exploit price reversions to their mean.
Theoretical Framework
Momentum and Mean Reversion: Momentum trading assumes that assets with a recent history of strong performance will continue in that direction, while mean reversion suggests that assets tend to return to their historical average over time (Fama & French, 1988; Poterba & Summers, 1988). This strategy incorporates elements of both, looking for periods when momentum is either overextended (and likely to revert) or when the asset’s price is temporarily underpriced relative to its historical trend.
Rate of Change (ROC): The ROC is a straightforward momentum indicator that measures the percentage change in price over a specified period (Wilder, 1978). The strategy calculates the ROC over a 2-period window, making it responsive to short-term price changes. By using ROC, the strategy aims to detect price acceleration and deceleration.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are used to identify volatility and potential price extremes, often signaling overbought or oversold conditions. The bands consist of a moving average and two standard deviation bounds that adjust dynamically with price volatility (Bollinger, 2002).
The strategy employs two sets of Bollinger Bands: one for short-term volatility (lower band) and another for longer-term trends (upper band), with different lengths and standard deviation multipliers.
Strategy Construction
Indicator Inputs:
ROC Period: The rate of change is computed over a 2-period window, which provides sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations.
Bollinger Bands:
Lower Band: Calculated with a 18-period length and a standard deviation of 1.7.
Upper Band: Calculated with a 21-period length and a standard deviation of 2.1.
Calculations:
ROC Calculation: The ROC is computed by comparing the current close price to the close price from rocPeriod days ago, expressing it as a percentage.
Bollinger Bands: The strategy calculates both upper and lower Bollinger Bands around the ROC, using a simple moving average as the central basis. The lower Bollinger Band is used as a reference for identifying potential long entry points when the ROC crosses above it, while the upper Bollinger Band serves as a reference for exits, when the ROC crosses below it.
Trading Conditions:
Long Entry: A long position is initiated when the ROC crosses above the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential shift from a period of low momentum to an increase in price movement.
Exit Condition: A position is closed when the ROC crosses under the upper Bollinger Band, or when the ROC drops below the lower band again, indicating a reversal or weakening of momentum.
Visual Indicators:
ROC Plot: The ROC is plotted as a line to visualize the momentum direction.
Bollinger Bands: The upper and lower bands, along with their basis (simple moving averages), are plotted to delineate the expected range for the ROC.
Background Color: To enhance decision-making, the strategy colors the background when extreme conditions are detected—green for oversold (ROC below the lower band) and red for overbought (ROC above the upper band), indicating potential reversal zones.
Strategy Performance Considerations
The use of Bollinger Bands in this strategy provides an adaptive framework that adjusts to changing market volatility. When volatility increases, the bands widen, allowing for larger price movements, while during quieter periods, the bands contract, reducing trade signals. This adaptiveness is critical in maintaining strategy effectiveness across different market conditions.
The strategy’s pyramiding setting is disabled (pyramiding=0), ensuring that only one position is taken at a time, which is a conservative risk management approach. Additionally, the strategy includes transaction costs and slippage parameters to account for real-world trading conditions.
Empirical Evidence and Relevance
The combination of momentum and mean reversion has been widely studied and shown to provide profitable opportunities under certain market conditions. Studies such as Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) confirm that momentum strategies tend to work well in trending markets, while mean reversion strategies have been effective during periods of high volatility or after sharp price movements (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985). By integrating both strategies into one system, the Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy may be able to capitalize on both trending and reverting market behavior.
Furthermore, research by Chan (1996) on momentum-based trading systems demonstrates that adaptive strategies, which adjust to changes in market volatility, often outperform static strategies, providing a compelling rationale for the use of Bollinger Bands in this context.
Conclusion
The Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy provides a robust framework for trading based on the dual concepts of momentum and mean reversion. By using ROC in combination with Bollinger Bands, the strategy is capable of identifying overbought and oversold conditions while adapting to changing market conditions. The use of adaptive indicators ensures that the strategy remains flexible and can perform across different market environments, potentially offering a competitive edge for traders who seek to balance risk and reward in their trading approaches.
References
Bollinger, J. (2002). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. McGraw-Hill Professional.
Chan, L. K. C. (1996). Momentum, Mean Reversion, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1681-1713.
De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. H. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), 246-273.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1988). Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 27-59.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Trend Research.
Forex Pair Yield Momentum This Pine Script strategy leverages yield differentials between the 2-year government bond yields of two countries to trade Forex pairs. Yield spreads are widely regarded as a fundamental driver of currency movements, as highlighted by international finance theories like the Interest Rate Parity (IRP), which suggests that currencies with higher yields tend to appreciate due to increased capital flows:
1. Dynamic Yield Spread Calculation:
• The strategy dynamically calculates the yield spread (yield_a - yield_b) for the chosen Forex pair.
• Example: For GBP/USD, the spread equals US 2Y Yield - UK 2Y Yield.
2. Momentum Analysis via Bollinger Bands:
• Yield momentum is computed as the difference between the current spread and its moving
Bollinger Bands are applied to identify extreme deviations:
• Long Entry: When momentum crosses below the lower band.
• Short Entry: When momentum crosses above the upper band.
3. Reversal Logic:
• An optional checkbox reverses the trading logic, allowing long trades at the upper band and short trades at the lower band, accommodating different market conditions.
4. Trade Management:
• Positions are held for a predefined number of bars (hold_periods), and each trade uses a fixed contract size of 100 with a starting capital of $20,000.
Theoretical Basis:
1. Yield Differentials and Currency Movements:
• Empirical studies, such as Clarida et al. (2009), confirm that interest rate differentials significantly impact exchange rate dynamics, especially in carry trade strategies .
• Higher-yields tend to appreciate against lower-yielding currencies due to speculative flows and demand for higher returns.
2. Bollinger Bands for Momentum:
• Bollinger Bands effectively capture deviations in yield momentum, identifying opportunities where price returns to equilibrium (mean reversion) or extends in trend-following scenarios (momentum breakout).
• As Bollinger (2001) emphasized, this tool adapts to market volatility by dynamically adjusting thresholds .
References:
1. Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics. Journal of Political Economy.
2. Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1996). Foundations of International Macroeconomics.
3. Clarida, R., Davis, J., & Pedersen, N. (2009). Currency Carry Trade Regimes. NBER.
4. Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands.
5. Mendelsohn, L. B. (2006). Forex Trading Using Intermarket Analysis.
Custom Dual EMA Crossover Strategy with Configurable LogicThis strategy is designed to assist traders in identifying and capitalizing on bullish market trends through a systematic and data-driven approach. It incorporates detailed trend analysis, volatility filtering, and percentage-based thresholds to provide actionable insights and high-confidence trade setups. It leverages the Exponential Moving Average and combines it with custom logic to detect volatility, maximum allowed price movements over last bars and trend confirmation.
Key Features:
- Buy orders follow several conditions, including but not limited to:
a. EMA Crossover: specifically designed to capture immediate market shifts rather than medium- or long-term trends, ensuring responsiveness to rapidly changing conditions but requiring additional confirmations to avoid false signals (see below).
b. Thresholds in Price Changes: Ensures recent price fluctuations remain within specific thresholds, allowing trades to be entered at optimal times and avoiding delayed or unsustainable short-term bullish trends.
c. Adequate Market Volatility: Requires sufficient market activity to avoid false signals stemming from low volatility conditions.
d. Bullish Medium-Term Trend: Validates a bullish medium-term trend using an EMA crossover to avoid trading during bearish market conditions and minimize risk.
- Leverages Take profit and Stop loss levels
- Implements an optional mechanism to automatically close trades after a predefined number of bars, supporting disciplined trade management.
The script does not rely on any public scripts or indicators. Apart the EMA, all the underlying logic, including the volatility thresholds and filtering mechanisms, has been custom developed to ensure originality and precision. The strategy's conditions are all configurable by the user in the TradingView pop-up, allowing it to adapt to different assets and timeframes. For example, users can set the EMA lengths to align with long-term trends for cryptocurrencies or adjust volatility thresholds to account for the specific price movement behavior of stocks or forex pairs.
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Recommendations:
- Identify a crypto asset with potential
- Before live trading, rigorously backtest your strategy on the chosen asset and interval over a period of at least one year*, analyzing results, refining parameters' value and eventually changing timeframe and / or asset.
- Refine your approach until you achieve consistent profitability with a high win rate. Balance the two — a high win rate is great, but only if your profits outweigh your losses in the long term.
- Once successful, remain disciplined and adhere to the parameters that yield the best results. Set up TradingView alerts to trigger real-time actions via your preferred trading bot. Alerts can be set up on the Indicator, which mirrors the strategy's logic and enables users to execute real-time actions effectively. I will provide you access to the Indicator, as well as the Strategy.
* Alternatively, you can apply the strategy to a shorter period for tactical use. While this approach may increase short-term opportunities (e.g. strong bullish short term movements), it also comes with heightened risks.
Use Cases:
- Suitable for traders focusing on bullish or range-bound markets.
- Ideal for short to medium-term trading horizons.
Access and Configuration Support:
This is an invite-only script. For access, please reach out directly for subscription details. I also provide guidance on configuring the strategy with real-world examples to optimize its use for various assets, intervals and timeframes.
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Disclaimer:
This script is a tool to support trading decisions and does not guarantee profitability. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading carries inherent risks; always trade responsibly and manage risk accordingly.
Kernel Regression Envelope with SMI OscillatorThis script combines the predictive capabilities of the **Nadaraya-Watson estimator**, implemented by the esteemed jdehorty (credit to him for his excellent work on the `KernelFunctions` library and the original Nadaraya-Watson Envelope indicator), with the confirmation strength of the **Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI)** to create a dynamic trend reversal strategy. The core idea is to identify potential overbought and oversold conditions using the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope and then confirm these signals with the SMI before entering a trade.
**Understanding the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope:**
The Nadaraya-Watson estimator is a non-parametric regression technique that essentially calculates a weighted average of past price data to estimate the current underlying trend. Unlike simple moving averages that give equal weight to all past data within a defined period, the Nadaraya-Watson estimator uses a **kernel function** (in this case, the Rational Quadratic Kernel) to assign weights. The key parameters influencing this estimation are:
* **Lookback Window (h):** This determines how many historical bars are considered for the estimation. A larger window results in a smoother estimation, while a smaller window makes it more reactive to recent price changes.
* **Relative Weighting (alpha):** This parameter controls the influence of different time frames in the estimation. Lower values emphasize longer-term price action, while higher values make the estimator more sensitive to shorter-term movements.
* **Start Regression at Bar (x\_0):** This allows you to exclude the potentially volatile initial bars of a chart from the calculation, leading to a more stable estimation.
The script calculates the Nadaraya-Watson estimation for the closing price (`yhat_close`), as well as the highs (`yhat_high`) and lows (`yhat_low`). The `yhat_close` is then used as the central trend line.
**Dynamic Envelope Bands with ATR:**
To identify potential entry and exit points around the Nadaraya-Watson estimation, the script uses **Average True Range (ATR)** to create dynamic envelope bands. ATR measures the volatility of the price. By multiplying the ATR by different factors (`nearFactor` and `farFactor`), we create multiple bands:
* **Near Bands:** These are closer to the Nadaraya-Watson estimation and are intended to identify potential immediate overbought or oversold zones.
* **Far Bands:** These are further away and can act as potential take-profit or stop-loss levels, representing more extreme price extensions.
The script calculates both near and far upper and lower bands, as well as an average between the near and far bands. This provides a nuanced view of potential support and resistance levels around the estimated trend.
**Confirming Reversals with the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI):**
While the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope identifies potential overextended conditions, the **Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI)** is used to confirm a potential trend reversal. The SMI, unlike a traditional stochastic oscillator, oscillates around a zero line. It measures the location of the current closing price relative to the median of the high/low range over a specified period.
The script calculates the SMI on a **higher timeframe** (defined by the "Timeframe" input) to gain a broader perspective on the market momentum. This helps to filter out potential whipsaws and false signals that might occur on the current chart's timeframe. The SMI calculation involves:
* **%K Length:** The lookback period for calculating the highest high and lowest low.
* **%D Length:** The period for smoothing the relative range.
* **EMA Length:** The period for smoothing the SMI itself.
The script uses a double EMA for smoothing within the SMI calculation for added smoothness.
**How the Indicators Work Together in the Strategy:**
The strategy enters a long position when:
1. The closing price crosses below the **near lower band** of the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope, suggesting a potential oversold condition.
2. The SMI crosses above its EMA, indicating positive momentum.
3. The SMI value is below -50, further supporting the oversold idea on the higher timeframe.
Conversely, the strategy enters a short position when:
1. The closing price crosses above the **near upper band** of the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope, suggesting a potential overbought condition.
2. The SMI crosses below its EMA, indicating negative momentum.
3. The SMI value is above 50, further supporting the overbought idea on the higher timeframe.
Trades are closed when the price crosses the **far band** in the opposite direction of the trade. A stop-loss is also implemented based on a fixed value.
**In essence:** The Nadaraya-Watson Envelope identifies areas where the price might be deviating significantly from its estimated trend. The SMI, calculated on a higher timeframe, then acts as a confirmation signal, suggesting that the momentum is shifting in the direction of a potential reversal. The ATR-based bands provide dynamic entry and exit points based on the current volatility.
**How to Use the Script:**
1. **Apply the script to your chart.**
2. **Adjust the "Kernel Settings":**
* **Lookback Window (h):** Experiment with different values to find the smoothness that best suits the asset and timeframe you are trading. Lower values make the envelope more reactive, while higher values make it smoother.
* **Relative Weighting (alpha):** Adjust to control the influence of different timeframes on the Nadaraya-Watson estimation.
* **Start Regression at Bar (x\_0):** Increase this value if you want to exclude the initial, potentially volatile, bars from the calculation.
* **Stoploss:** Set your desired stop-loss value.
3. **Adjust the "SMI" settings:**
* **%K Length, %D Length, EMA Length:** These parameters control the sensitivity and smoothness of the SMI. Experiment to find settings that work well for your trading style.
* **Timeframe:** Select the higher timeframe you want to use for SMI confirmation.
4. **Adjust the "ATR Length" and "Near/Far ATR Factor":** These settings control the width and sensitivity of the envelope bands. Smaller ATR lengths make the bands more reactive to recent volatility.
5. **Customize the "Color Settings"** to your preference.
6. **Observe the plots:**
* The **Nadaraya-Watson Estimation (yhat)** line represents the estimated underlying trend.
* The **near and far upper and lower bands** visualize potential overbought and oversold zones based on the ATR.
* The **fill areas** highlight the regions between the near and far bands.
7. **Look for entry signals:** A long entry is considered when the price touches or crosses below the lower near band and the SMI confirms upward momentum. A short entry is considered when the price touches or crosses above the upper near band and the SMI confirms downward momentum.
8. **Manage your trades:** The script provides exit signals when the price crosses the far band. The fixed stop-loss will also close trades if the price moves against your position.
**Justification for Combining Nadaraya-Watson Envelope and SMI:**
The combination of the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope and the SMI provides a more robust approach to identifying potential trend reversals compared to using either indicator in isolation. The Nadaraya-Watson Envelope excels at identifying potential areas where the price is overextended relative to its recent history. However, relying solely on the envelope can lead to false signals, especially in choppy or volatile markets. By incorporating the SMI as a confirmation tool, we add a momentum filter that helps to validate the potential reversals signaled by the envelope. The higher timeframe SMI further helps to filter out noise and focus on more significant shifts in momentum. The ATR-based bands add a dynamic element to the entry and exit points, adapting to the current market volatility. This mashup aims to leverage the strengths of each indicator to create a more reliable trading strategy.
Z-Strike RecoveryThis strategy utilizes the Z-Score of daily changes in the VIX (Volatility Index) to identify moments of extreme market panic and initiate long entries. Scientific research highlights that extreme volatility levels often signal oversold markets, providing opportunities for mean-reversion strategies.
How the Strategy Works
Calculation of Daily VIX Changes:
The difference between today’s and yesterday’s VIX closing prices is calculated.
Z-Score Calculation:
The Z-Score quantifies how far the current change deviates from the mean (average), expressed in standard deviations:
Z-Score=(Daily VIX Change)−MeanStandard Deviation
Z-Score=Standard Deviation(Daily VIX Change)−Mean
The mean and standard deviation are computed over a rolling period of 16 days (default).
Entry Condition:
A long entry is triggered when the Z-Score exceeds a threshold of 1.3 (adjustable).
A high positive Z-Score indicates a strong overreaction in the market (panic).
Exit Condition:
The position is closed after 10 periods (days), regardless of market behavior.
Visualizations:
The Z-Score is plotted to make extreme values visible.
Horizontal threshold lines mark entry signals.
Bars with entry signals are highlighted with a blue background.
This strategy is particularly suitable for mean-reverting markets, such as the S&P 500.
Scientific Background
Volatility and Market Behavior:
Studies like Whaley (2000) demonstrate that the VIX, known as the "fear gauge," is highly correlated with market panic phases. A spike in the VIX is often interpreted as an oversold signal due to excessive hedging by investors.
Source: Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
Z-Score in Financial Strategies:
The Z-Score is a proven method for detecting statistical outliers and is widely used in mean-reversion strategies.
Source: Chan, E. (2009). Quantitative Trading. Wiley Finance.
Mean-Reversion Approach:
The strategy builds on the mean-reversion principle, which assumes that extreme market movements tend to revert to the mean over time.
Source: Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Trend Trader-Remastered StrategyOfficial Strategy for Trend Trader - Remastered
Indicator: Trend Trader-Remastered (TTR)
Overview:
The Trend Trader-Remastered is a refined and highly sophisticated implementation of the Parabolic SAR designed to create strategic buy and sell entry signals, alongside precision take profit and re-entry signals based on marked Bill Williams (BW) fractals. Built with a deep emphasis on clarity and accuracy, this indicator ensures that only relevant and meaningful signals are generated, eliminating any unnecessary entries or exits.
Please check the indicator details and updates via the link above.
Important Disclosure:
My primary objective is to provide realistic strategies and a code base for the TradingView Community. Therefore, the default settings of the strategy version of the indicator have been set to reflect realistic world trading scenarios and best practices.
Key Features:
Strategy execution date&time range.
Take Profit Reduction Rate: The percentage of progressive reduction on active position size for take profit signals.
Example:
TP Reduce: 10%
Entry Position Size: 100
TP1: 100 - 10 = 90
TP2: 90 - 9 = 81
Re-Entry When Rate: The percentage of position size on initial entry of the signal to determine re-entry.
Example:
RE When: 50%
Entry Position Size: 100
Re-Entry Condition: Active Position Size < 50
Re-Entry Fill Rate: The percentage of position size on initial entry of the signal to be completed.
Example:
RE Fill: 75%
Entry Position Size: 100
Active Position Size: 50
Re-Entry Order Size: 25
Final Active Position Size:75
Important: Even RE When condition is met, the active position size required to drop below RE Fill rate to trigger re-entry order.
Key Points:
'Process Orders on Close' is enabled as Take Profit and Re-Entry signals must be executed on candle close.
'Calculate on Every Tick' is enabled as entry signals are required to be executed within candle time.
'Initial Capital' has been set to 10,000 USD.
'Default Quantity Type' has been set to 'Percent of Equity'.
'Default Quantity' has been set to 10% as the best practice of investing 10% of the assets.
'Currency' has been set to USD.
'Commission Type' has been set to 'Commission Percent'
'Commission Value' has been set to 0.05% to reflect the most realistic results with a common taker fee value.
VIX Spike StrategyThis script implements a trading strategy based on the Volatility Index (VIX) and its standard deviation. It aims to enter a long position when the VIX exceeds a certain number of standard deviations above its moving average, which is a signal of a volatility spike. The position is then exited after a set number of periods.
VIX Symbol (vix_symbol): The input allows the user to specify the symbol for the VIX index (typically "CBOE:VIX").
Standard Deviation Length (stddev_length): The number of periods used to calculate the standard deviation of the VIX. This can be adjusted by the user.
Standard Deviation Multiplier (stddev_multiple): This multiplier is used to determine how many standard deviations above the moving average the VIX must exceed to trigger a long entry.
Exit Periods (exit_periods): The user specifies how many periods after entering the position the strategy will exit the trade.
Strategy Logic:
Data Loading: The script loads the VIX data, both for the current timeframe and as a rescaled version for calculation purposes.
Standard Deviation Calculation: It calculates both the moving average (SMA) and the standard deviation of the VIX over the specified period (stddev_length).
Entry Condition: A long position is entered when the VIX exceeds the moving average by a specified multiple of its standard deviation (calculated as vix_mean + stddev_multiple * vix_stddev).
Exit Condition: After the position is entered, it will be closed after the user-defined number of periods (exit_periods).
Visualization:
The VIX is plotted in blue.
The moving average of the VIX is plotted in orange.
The threshold for the VIX, which is the moving average plus the standard deviation multiplier, is plotted in red.
The background turns green when the entry condition is met, providing a visual cue.
Sources:
The VIX is often used as a measure of market volatility, with high values indicating increased uncertainty in the market.
Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the variability or dispersion of a set of data points. In financial markets, it is used to measure the volatility of asset prices.
References:
Bollerslev, T. (1986). "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity." Journal of Econometrics.
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities." Journal of Political Economy.
DAILY Supertrend + EMA Crossover with RSI FilterThis strategy is a technical trading approach that combines multiple indicators—Supertrend, Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—to identify and manage trades.
Core Components:
1. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs):
Two EMAs, one with a shorter period (fast) and one with a longer period (slow), are calculated. The idea is to spot when the faster EMA crosses above or below the slower EMA. A fast EMA crossing above the slow EMA often suggests upward momentum, while crossing below suggests downward momentum.
2. Supertrend Indicator:
The Supertrend uses Average True Range (ATR) to establish dynamic support and resistance lines. These lines shift above or below price depending on the prevailing trend. When price is above the Supertrend line, the trend is considered bullish; when below, it’s considered bearish. This helps ensure that the strategy trades only in the direction of the overall trend rather than against it.
3. RSI Filter:
The RSI measures momentum. It helps avoid buying into markets that are already overbought or selling into markets that are oversold. For example, when going long (buying), the strategy only proceeds if the RSI is not too high, and when going short (selling), it only proceeds if the RSI is not too low. This filter is meant to improve the quality of the trades by reducing the chance of entering right before a reversal.
4. Time Filters:
The strategy only triggers entries during user-specified date and time ranges. This is useful if one wants to limit trading activity to certain trading sessions or periods with higher market liquidity.
5. Risk Management via ATR-based Stops and Targets:
Both stop loss and take profit levels are set as multiples of the ATR. ATR measures volatility, so when volatility is higher, both stops and profit targets adjust to give the trade more breathing room. Conversely, when volatility is low, stops and targets tighten. This dynamic approach helps maintain consistent risk management regardless of market conditions.
Overall Logic Flow:
- First, the market conditions are analyzed through EMAs, Supertrend, and RSI.
- When a buy (long) condition is met—meaning the fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA, the trend is bullish according to Supertrend, and RSI is below the specified “overbought” threshold—the strategy initiates or adds to a long position.
- Similarly, when a sell (short) condition is met—meaning the fast EMA crosses below the slow EMA, the trend is bearish, and RSI is above the specified “oversold” threshold—it initiates or adds to a short position.
- Each position is protected by an automatically calculated stop loss and a take profit level based on ATR multiples.
Intended Result:
By blending trend detection, momentum filtering, and volatility-adjusted risk management, the strategy aims to capture moves in the primary trend direction while avoiding entries at excessively stretched prices. Allowing multiple entries can potentially amplify gains in strong trends but also increases exposure, which traders should consider in their risk management approach.
In essence, this strategy tries to ride established trends as indicated by the Supertrend and EMAs, filter out poor-quality entries using RSI, and dynamically manage trade risk through ATR-based stops and targets.
Overnight Effect High Volatility Crypto (AiBitcoinTrend)👽 Overview of the Strategy
This strategy leverages the overnight effect in the cryptocurrency market, specifically targeting the two-hour window from 21:00 UTC to 23:00 UTC. The strategy is designed to be applied only during periods of high volatility, which is determined using historical volatility data. This approach, inspired by research from Padyšák and Vojtko (2022), aims to capitalize on statistically significant return patterns observed during these hours.
Deep Backtesting with a High Volatility Filter
Deep Backtesting without a High Volatility Filter
👽 How the Strategy Works
Volatility Calculation:
Each day at 00:00 UTC, the strategy calculates the 30-day historical volatility of crypto returns (typically Bitcoin). The historical volatility is the standard deviation of the log returns over the past 30 days, representing the market's recent volatility level.
Median Volatility Benchmark:
The median of the 30-day historical volatility is calculated over a 365-day period (one year). This median acts as a benchmark to classify each day as either:
👾 High Volatility: When the current 30-day volatility exceeds the median volatility.
👾 Low Volatility: When the current 30-day volatility is below the median.
Trading Rule:
If the day is classified as a High Volatility Day, the strategy executes the following trades:
👾 Buy at 21:00 UTC.
👾 Sell at 23:00 UTC.
Trade Execution Details:
The strategy uses a 0.02% fee per trade.
Each trade is executed with 25% of the available capital. This allocation helps manage risk while allowing for compounding returns.
Rationale:
The returns during the 22:00 and 23:00 UTC hours have been found to be statistically significant during high volatility periods. The overnight effect is believed to drive this phenomenon due to the asynchronous closing hours of global financial markets. This creates unique trading opportunities in the cryptocurrency market, where exchanges remain open 24/7.
👽 Market Context and Global Time Zone Impact
👾 Why 21:00 to 23:00 UTC?
During this window, major traditional financial markets are closed:
NYSE (New York) closes at 21:00 UTC.
London and European markets are closed during these hours.
Asian markets (Tokyo, Hong Kong, etc.) open later, leaving this window largely unaffected by traditional trading flows.
This global market inactivity creates a period where significant moves can occur in the cryptocurrency market, particularly during high volatility.
👽 Strategy Parameters
Volatility Period: 30 days.
The lookback period for calculating historical volatility.
Median Period: 365 days.
The lookback period for calculating the median volatility benchmark.
Entry Time: 21:00 UTC.
Adjust this to your local time if necessary (e.g., 16:00 in New York, 22:00 in Stockholm).
Exit Time: 23:00 UTC.
Adjust this to your local time if necessary (e.g., 18:00 in New York, 00:00 midnight in Stockholm).
👽 Benefits of the Strategy
Seasonality Effect:
The strategy captures consistent patterns driven by the overnight effect and high volatility periods.
Risk Reduction:
Since trades are executed during a specific window and only on high volatility days, the strategy helps mitigate exposure to broader market risk.
Simplicity and Efficiency:
The strategy is moderately complex, making it accessible for traders while offering significant returns.
Global Applicability:
Suitable for traders worldwide, with clear guidelines on adjusting for local time zones.
👽 Considerations
Market Conditions: The strategy works best in a high-volatility environment.
Execution: Requires precise timing to enter and exit trades at the specified hours.
Time Zone Adjustments: Ensure you convert UTC times accurately based on your location to execute trades at the correct local times.
Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
DCA Strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger BandDCA Strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger Band
The Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger Bands is a sophisticated trading strategy that combines the principles of DCA, mean reversion, and technical analysis using Bollinger Bands. This strategy aims to capitalize on market corrections by systematically entering positions during periods of price pullbacks and reversion to the mean.
Key Concepts and Principles
1. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)
DCA is an investment strategy that involves regularly purchasing a fixed dollar amount of an asset, regardless of its price. The idea behind DCA is that by spreading out investments over time, the impact of market volatility is reduced, and investors can avoid making large investments at inopportune times. The strategy reduces the risk of buying all at once during a market high and can smooth out the cost of purchasing assets over time.
In the context of this strategy, the Investment Amount (USD) is set by the user and represents the amount of capital to be invested in each buy order. The strategy executes buy orders whenever the price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, which suggests a potential market correction or pullback. This is an effective way to average the entry price and avoid the emotional pitfalls of trying to time the market perfectly.
2. Mean Reversion
Mean reversion is a concept that suggests prices will tend to return to their historical average or mean over time. In this strategy, mean reversion is implemented using the Bollinger Bands, which are based on a moving average and standard deviation. The lower band is considered a potential buy signal when the price crosses below it, indicating that the asset has become oversold or underpriced relative to its historical average. This triggers the DCA buy order.
Mean reversion strategies are popular because they exploit the natural tendency of prices to revert to their mean after experiencing extreme deviations, such as during market corrections or panic selling.
3. Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool that consists of three lines:
Middle Band: The moving average, usually a 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in this strategy. This serves as the "mean" or baseline.
Upper Band: The middle band plus a certain number of standard deviations (multiplier). The upper band is used to identify overbought conditions.
Lower Band: The middle band minus a certain number of standard deviations (multiplier). The lower band is used to identify oversold conditions.
In this strategy, the Bollinger Bands are used to identify potential entry points for DCA trades. When the price crosses below the lower band, this is seen as a potential opportunity for mean reversion, suggesting that the asset may be oversold and could reverse back toward the middle band (the EMA). Conversely, when the price crosses above the upper band, it indicates overbought conditions and signals potential market exhaustion.
4. Time-Based Entry and Exit
The strategy has specific entry and exit points defined by time parameters:
Open Date: The date when the strategy begins opening positions.
Close Date: The date when all positions are closed.
This time-bound approach ensures that the strategy is active only during a specified window, which can be useful for testing specific market conditions or focusing on a particular time frame.
5. Position Sizing
Position sizing is determined by the Investment Amount (USD), which is the fixed amount to be invested in each buy order. The quantity of the asset to be purchased is calculated by dividing the investment amount by the current price of the asset (investment_amount / close). This ensures that the amount invested remains constant despite fluctuations in the asset's price.
6. Closing All Positions
The strategy includes an exit rule that closes all positions once the specified close date is reached. This allows for controlled exits and limits the exposure to market fluctuations beyond the strategy's timeframe.
7. Background Color Based on Price Relative to Bollinger Bands
The script uses the background color of the chart to provide visual feedback about the price's relationship with the Bollinger Bands:
Red background indicates the price is above the upper band, signaling overbought conditions.
Green background indicates the price is below the lower band, signaling oversold conditions.
This provides an easy-to-interpret visual cue for traders to assess the current market environment.
Postscript: Configuring Initial Capital for Backtesting
To ensure the backtest results align with the actual investment scenario, users must adjust the Initial Capital in the TradingView strategy properties. This is done by calculating the Initial Capital as the product of the Total Closed Trades and the Investment Amount (USD). For instance:
If the user is investing 100 USD per trade and has 10 closed trades, the Initial Capital should be set to 1,000 USD.
Similarly, if the user is investing 200 USD per trade and has 24 closed trades, the Initial Capital should be set to 4,800 USD.
This adjustment ensures that the backtesting results reflect the actual capital deployed in the strategy and provides an accurate representation of potential gains and losses.
Conclusion
The DCA strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger Bands is a systematic approach to investing that leverages the power of regular investments and technical analysis to reduce market timing risks. By combining DCA with the insights offered by Bollinger Bands and mean reversion, this strategy offers a structured way to navigate volatile markets while targeting favorable entry points. The clear entry and exit rules, coupled with time-based constraints, make it a robust and disciplined approach to long-term investing.
