Hong Kong Properties - Gloomy Days ahead
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Property investment is a capital intensive game and the waiting time is much longer compared to equities. Those who bought into HK properties 2-3 years ago and if they are selling now are likely to incur heavy losses. But they have no choice especially if they are speculators , hoping to flip the properties for a quick gain.........
Property investment is a capital intensive game and the waiting time is much longer compared to equities. Those who bought into HK properties 2-3 years ago and if they are selling now are likely to incur heavy losses. But they have no choice especially if they are speculators , hoping to flip the properties for a quick gain.........
Nota
a fake breakout to attract the early bulls....only to disappoint......Nota
4 months later, the scene is still one of pessimissm.Nota
NO, I did not short this stock else I would make a killing in the market, haha.....But more importantly is how the Chinese government will intervene and salvage this company. Or will it not ?
Nota
globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234440.shtmlfrom bad to worse....
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From the peak of 27 dollars, Evergrande, the largest real estate developer is now worth 1.56 dollars , OMG !!!!!!!Nota
are we seeing a possible rebound ? the last 3 days have been bullish so far.....however, the China market is flooded with oversupply and weak demand at the moment with many Tier 3 and 4 developers resorting to finding creative ways to entice buyers - eg. accepting wheat or barley as downpayment, promising a job offer upon purchase of flats, etc.Nota
This is an important sector , a pillar of China's GDP and it must not falter, no matter what coz the consequences are grave as it involves millions of households at stake. It is a wait and see approach for many, not sure what the central government will do to shore up this sector............Nota
well, after 3 months or so, we can see the selling pressure seems to have reduced quite a fair bit. In fact, the last 3 days , we witnessed bullish candles which could be a tell tale sign of a turn around. Let's hope it works so that it will lift up the Chinese economy and the moods of the retail investors to pour in more money into the stock market. We are all in it together....
Nota
globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1284027.shtmlafter 3 long years, could we see the light at the end of the tunnel for the property sector ?
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a quick look after 1.5 years and it is all down to penny stocks level. Will it recover ? Years probably and lots of stimulus and government policies changes needed.Nota
This is an important chart that I check back every week to get an idea of the overall property market. If these big boys cannot survive, the smaller ones are either going bankrupt or struggling in heavy debts.......Do not think that just because it has dropped 80-90% that means the upside is HUGE and downside is small (in theory , yes) coz you could be tying up your limited capital and ride on these feeble stocks for a long time (consolidation phase can take years) and until the government seriously do something MAJOR to support the market
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I like to return to this chart from time to time as it serves as a REMINDER to myself not to follow blindly what other influencers are saying online, no matter how attractive the propositions may be. Remember, your money is your money and your loss will be YOURS and it stings not theirs. The more you view their videos, the more they gain by advertising revenues, nothing wrong just do not get impulsive and take emotional decisions without doing your homework. I have come to realise sometimes investment is not rocket science , just that you need patience, a clear mind and do some homework on your own to dig out the facts. The 10 trillion recent package , of which 4 trillion is used to so called salvage the property market is without doubt, a miserable amount, a drop in the ocean and thus the release of this news failed to support the stock market, crashing it below the important 20,000 price level. Just imagine, 30% of the GDP of China comes from property for the last 2-3 decades and now that it has crashed, can you think of any sectors that can replace it in the next 3-5 years ? Not AI, not the tech behemoth like Alibaba, Tencent , JD.com, Baidu which you will soon see their less than satisfactorily results from Singles Day event. Singles Day used to be the darling of Alibaba , boasting a single day event sales that raked in billions and made Amazon looks pathetic in the West. But , fast forward to 10 years later, it has met its own competitors - PDD, Kuaishou, JD.com, Tencents who all want to have a share of these e-commerce market. Naturally, without the overall market size growing, the big boys (Alibaba) has to sacrificed its shares and split with the smaller emerging players - Kuaishou and PDD. It becomes a matter of who has more money to burn to gain market shares, a vicious cycles that benefit no one at the end of the day. And with consumers confidence at all time low (savings rate at banks are at all time high), they are shopping but not as ferocious as before and perhaps more careful in their selections, per transaction value decrease and definitely staying away from luxury products.
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