AUDUSD Insight

30 Okt

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Key Points
- Weakening yen as Japan’s ruling LDP suffers a defeat in the general election.
- Betting markets currently place former President Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming election at 60%.
- According to The Hill and election site DDHQ, Trump has a 54% chance of victory.
- Continued “Trump Trade” effect strengthens the Dollar Index.
- CB Consumer Confidence Index shows the current conditions index at 138, with the expectations index at 89.1, both up from the previous month.
- Ceasefire discussions between Israel and Lebanon are ongoing.
- Australia’s September unemployment rate is 4.1%, with labor force participation at 67.2%. The likelihood of a rate cut by year-end has been adjusted down from 46% to 20%.

Key Economic Indicators Schedule
- October 30: Australia’s Q3 CPI, U.S. Q3 GDP, Germany’s October CPI
- October 31: Bank of Japan rate decision, Eurozone October CPI, U.S. September PCE price index
- November 1: U.S. October nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate

AUD/USD Chart Analysis
Despite the lower likelihood of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the AUD/USD is trending downward due to the steep rise of the U.S. dollar. The support level at 0.66000, where a rebound was anticipated, has been broken, and further decline towards 0.64000 is expected. However, as this may not yet be a bottom, a rebound around 0.64000 remains possible.

We’ll adjust our strategy quickly if there are unexpected movements.