Daily 4XSetUps - BTC1! Week Starts With A Small Bloodbath Of -2%

2024/11/04
Daily 4XSetUps - BTC1! Week Starts With A Small Bloodbath Of -2%
“like the rabbit before the snake on the terrain around $66000!
is it the fear of courage? fear of the bulls? fear of the bears?”



$74415 - 2024/03/14 - high of March 2024
$73380 - 2024/04/08 - high of April 2024
$72660 - 2024/06/07 - high of June 2024
$70825 - 2024/07/29 - high of July 2024
$68240 - 2024/11/04 - last price action
This is the price action that the bulls should recapture after this initially euphoric and ultimately disappointing week. And that as quickly as possible - because the longer it takes, the more the bears are likely to get a taste for it again. Because this terrain, as we've been trying to describe for days, is something like a crossroad for our BTC1! is. A flash in the pan - that attracts or drives away bulls and/or bears? Either way - we'll see it...

This week starts with a little bloodbath for BTC1! . It seems like the calm before the storm when it comes to price action - one day before tomorrow's us presidential elections. Whether BTC1! & DXY & GC1! let alone DJIA or SP500 and/or NDX - or capital market interest rates: like US10Y the most importnat one, all of these assets rose significantly in October 2024! Because of Trump? Because of Harris? I don't know! Which is why I assume that many short-term oriented people - who think about days, weeks, maybe 1-2 quarters - are closing their positions. I also basically count myself as one of them - one of the short-term ones; who like to profitably take a weekly trend or monthly trend - and ideally let a long-term one emerge and let it run. Which is why I let run all of our long 4XSetUps - through this us election weeks and/pr while an another fed interest rate cut. But the majority of financial market participants seem to be smoothly closing their positions - realizing profits. And new buyers seem to be holding back, precisely because of tomorrow's US presidential election. Understandable - but admittedly not what I expected. I thought the DXY and/or WallStreet were moving towards all-time highs. Be that as it may, the two institutes that best predicted the 2020 election are, however, predicting a clear victory for Trump! Are they right? I don't know! As I have already written several times: "I am assuming a victory for the US Democrats, namely Harris." An analyst friend at a cfd online broker told me on the phone today: "Bitcoin alone is likely to make a move of almost 10% in response to the US election!" Which made me smile - and I asked him back: "In which direction?"

“Don’t mistake possibilities for probabilities. Anything is possible. It’s the probabilities that matter. Everything must be weighed in terms of its likelihood and prioritized.”
Ray Dalio

$69335 - 2022/04/12 - 1st Historical Alltime High
$68240 - 2024/11/04 - last price action
$68045 - 2022/11/08 - 2nd Historical Alltime High
$62470 - 2024/08/02 - GAP Top Line Before Last SellOff
$62470 - 2024/08/05 - GAP Down Line Before Last SellOff
$66996 - 2024/11/01 - 20 SMA hl/2
$62758 - 2024/11/01 - 100 SMA hl/2
$62009 - 2024/11/01 - 200 SMA hl/2
These are the most important price actions for this week - on the bottom of the terrain, around $66000. Which we bulls have to defend. Because a fall below $60000 is entirely possible - and that would generate a large sell signal. Because then all the euphoria of the ongoing year 2024 will probably dissipate. And so the bears' mouths will start to water.

While this hour we are back between the 1st Historical Alltime High, from 2022/04/12, of $69335. And/Or $68045, from 2022/11/08, the 2nd Historical Alltime High. $68200 is the price action. From this pov (point of view) we have to admit that the bears dominate the terrain. All the terrain? No! Only since last week - and above $66000. Which is basically not a broken leg for bullish traders and/or investors (yet) - but I don't want to and can't ignore the dangers. I don't want to keep it from them. And if you deal with the price action every day in the last few days and weeks? You can literally feel the nervousness too! Or?

$68240 - 2024/11/04 - last price action
$68225 - 2024/10/15 - Above Average Bear 1h High
$68045 - 2024/10/15 - Above Average Bull 1h High
$65980 - 2024/10/15 - Above Average Bull 1h Low
$65385 - 2024/10/15 - Above Average Bear 1h low
This was the last settlement, if you will, from a technical point of view. Because since then - now more than 2 calendar weeks later - this terrain of our BTC1! the Bears are dominating! It's more than difficult for bulls to maintain the terrain of over $66000! Let alone rise even further? As a reminder, it's the way it is - as I wrote two weeks ago, at least in one of my post: “Many influencing factors play a role in this price action - which I don't want to go into at this point and can't go into. US elections? Will Trump win? Does BTC1! win? Does Trump lose? Will BTC1! losing? Or the other way around? I don't know! And about the influence of US economic data I also don't wanna know anything! Because for me, BTC1! is fundamentally always emotionally driven, including their observers, traders and/or investors - who basically always write BTC1! up. Because they own it. The others, like me too, simply don't care about it - the narratives which drive the price action up and/or down. That's it - basically!” Therefore pay attention to the price actions mentioned. And pull the ripcord at $60000 at the latest. Because if the price remains below $60000, the course of 2024 so far will look fundamentally negative! Like 2021? I don't know that! But that there are US presidential elections tomorrow? That's for sure! Let's wait for the result - and we'll see from there...


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.