Bought some insurance today. Let's see how it pans out for me.
In summary, best guess for the U.S. stock market is modest positive bias around the mid-year point through the 4th of July holiday.
Cautions regarding the finding include:
As noted, any return anomaly is small compared to return variability, so experience by year varies widely.
As noted, subperiods are short for reliable inference.
To the extent that the distribution of daily S&P 500 Index returns is wild, interpretation of the average return and standard deviation of returns breaks down.
source: www.cxoadvisory.com/...-the-mid-year-point/
In summary, best guess for the U.S. stock market is modest positive bias around the mid-year point through the 4th of July holiday.
Cautions regarding the finding include:
As noted, any return anomaly is small compared to return variability, so experience by year varies widely.
As noted, subperiods are short for reliable inference.
To the extent that the distribution of daily S&P 500 Index returns is wild, interpretation of the average return and standard deviation of returns breaks down.
source: www.cxoadvisory.com/...-the-mid-year-point/
