The Bullish Case For Bitcoin || And A Look Back
This is the first of a set of two long-term ideas I'm going to be posting. This one assumes the overall bull run of bitcoin (large green trend curve) is both A. Still going despite a current correction from Sept-Dec FOMO, and B. Is non-linear, even on a log chart, I.e. is an upward sloping curve.
I FIRMLY believe that the cryptocurrency market as a whole is just beginning its bull run. So I'm alright with assuming A. almost indefinitely. However, whether or not we are seeing exponential growth on the log charts (which are already exponential of course) could easily be argued against, in which case look to my third related idea below, The Bearish Case For Bitcoin.
However, if we are to assume an exponential growth curve, I feel the one i've found fits the current data very nicely.
IMG 1
However, it should be noted, I'm only using data available from Coinbase' time frame. If you look to charts like Bitstamp, the trend line could be argued. But something else to consider is the market is different in almost every way now than it was pre-Coinbase, so I think it's safe to make TA based off this timeframe.
We next see that starting in April, possibly as a response/in relation to the two major flash crashes in late March and April 14, the insane bull run that brought bitcoin to the mainstream spotlight began. This is also where we started our path of unsustainable growth.
Then during mid-July we saw another major crash, only this time, it found heavy resistance at its long-term growth curve, which resulted in a bounce and preceding bull run that was truly unheard of in the world of investing & finance. One that on all levels needed a correction.
In this post I wont even get into things like Tether and the effect the Mt. Gox funds have had and continue to have on the market, but let's just say the growth was unnatural and unsustainable.
Which brings us to the past few months, insane joy followed by pure despair. But we can see our downward movement already beginning to slow, from both moving averages and Heikin Ashi graphs for 2 weeks - 1 month, and I believe this is in response to approaching our long-term trend curve.
Below, I'll link a related Idea (2) to this exact chart, but with smaller time frame candles and that you can click play on to follow for those who want to keep a closer eye on the price movement. But from this, I see three rough possibilities playing out, again, assuming we are still in a parabolic bull run.
A. we may find a bounce in the next day or so, as we are near a known support and fib line (see related idea 1 below), but I wouldn't count on it being the start of a consistent bull run, as we do need to get back to our long-term trend.
B.We could just see a relatively smooth drop down to, and then merging with our long-term trend line.
C. We could see a drop to as low as 4.3k as an overreaction, which would hopefully find some support somewhere along the way (there are plenty of possible support lines not shown), eventually bouncing back up into our long-term bull trend.
As always, im super interested in hearing everyones thoughts on this and the market in general. Hope this was helpful.
I FIRMLY believe that the cryptocurrency market as a whole is just beginning its bull run. So I'm alright with assuming A. almost indefinitely. However, whether or not we are seeing exponential growth on the log charts (which are already exponential of course) could easily be argued against, in which case look to my third related idea below, The Bearish Case For Bitcoin.
However, if we are to assume an exponential growth curve, I feel the one i've found fits the current data very nicely.
IMG 1
We next see that starting in April, possibly as a response/in relation to the two major flash crashes in late March and April 14, the insane bull run that brought bitcoin to the mainstream spotlight began. This is also where we started our path of unsustainable growth.
In this post I wont even get into things like Tether and the effect the Mt. Gox funds have had and continue to have on the market, but let's just say the growth was unnatural and unsustainable.
Which brings us to the past few months, insane joy followed by pure despair. But we can see our downward movement already beginning to slow, from both moving averages and Heikin Ashi graphs for 2 weeks - 1 month, and I believe this is in response to approaching our long-term trend curve.
Below, I'll link a related Idea (2) to this exact chart, but with smaller time frame candles and that you can click play on to follow for those who want to keep a closer eye on the price movement. But from this, I see three rough possibilities playing out, again, assuming we are still in a parabolic bull run.
A. we may find a bounce in the next day or so, as we are near a known support and fib line (see related idea 1 below), but I wouldn't count on it being the start of a consistent bull run, as we do need to get back to our long-term trend.
B.We could just see a relatively smooth drop down to, and then merging with our long-term trend line.
C. We could see a drop to as low as 4.3k as an overreaction, which would hopefully find some support somewhere along the way (there are plenty of possible support lines not shown), eventually bouncing back up into our long-term bull trend.
As always, im super interested in hearing everyones thoughts on this and the market in general. Hope this was helpful.
Komen:
It's been a while, but just wanted to notify anyone following this update that i's actually playing out very nicely. Id say it best fit my thoughts for B. tho while being somehow more volatile than i even expected. But, as you can see, especially by looking at
we are sitting right on that additional support level I drew on, and I think whether we can fully break above it in the next day or so or not will determine a lot.
