Reviewing my last study of BTC in the daily timeframe that projected a c.$48k high for this current relief rally I decided to take a look at what that might mean over the longer term. In this study, I use that insight to augment my review of the BTC Bull Market run and theorise what the remainder of this Bear Market might look like.
Of course, anything could happen, but let us assume that my Elliott Wave count is correct and that we are now in the process of tracing out a multi-month ABC correction, and this is our first relief rally to a lower-high. In that case, I notice the Ichimoku pivot relationship of 9 bars from the April 2021 high to the low at (A) and project 17 bars from that same origin to be September 2022, marking potentially another significant pivot point. If the rally to (B) peaks at around $48k in March (9 bars from the June 2021 low), this could see a target price for the low at (C) at around $30k. I do not expect it to fall much below that level, if at all, put further analysis of the low will have to wait until the high at (B) is confirmed.
However, I think it is also notable that the Monthly MACD has crossed bearish earlier in this bear cycle than in 2018, so feel that this lends substance to the theory that the pivot-low might occur in August/September for this 2022 bear cycle, making the total time from the Halving to the Bear Market Low just one month shorter than in the previous cycle.
What do you think, will we see a bottom of the Bear Market around September after this relief rally fades, or are we launching for the moon?
Of course, anything could happen, but let us assume that my Elliott Wave count is correct and that we are now in the process of tracing out a multi-month ABC correction, and this is our first relief rally to a lower-high. In that case, I notice the Ichimoku pivot relationship of 9 bars from the April 2021 high to the low at (A) and project 17 bars from that same origin to be September 2022, marking potentially another significant pivot point. If the rally to (B) peaks at around $48k in March (9 bars from the June 2021 low), this could see a target price for the low at (C) at around $30k. I do not expect it to fall much below that level, if at all, put further analysis of the low will have to wait until the high at (B) is confirmed.
However, I think it is also notable that the Monthly MACD has crossed bearish earlier in this bear cycle than in 2018, so feel that this lends substance to the theory that the pivot-low might occur in August/September for this 2022 bear cycle, making the total time from the Halving to the Bear Market Low just one month shorter than in the previous cycle.
What do you think, will we see a bottom of the Bear Market around September after this relief rally fades, or are we launching for the moon?
