My Bull Run Exit Plan
As the excitement is taking over the market with few Alts staring to pump massively with more to follow, I’d rather be prepared for the worse than get taken by surprise like most of us did back in May 19th.
Theories circulating the market:
1) BTC May have a long bull run with triple tops this cycle.
2) BTC will not again have a 3 year bear market as it’s getting mainstream.
3) Stock 2 Flow Model has been accurate so far predicting 6 figures Bitcoin this bull run. And I already posted my S2F theory taking BTC to 188k four months ago.
So I am not living under the rock, and I am aware of different scenarios that may get played out this cycle.
HOWEVER... I plan to play it very safe to avoid being taken by surprise with my pants down with a conservative approach as follows:
1) BTC has very little room to go up. 70s-80s tops. I’m selling my BTC into Alts at 72k.
2) once BTC dips from its ATH, Alts will rally. (Alts Season)
3) within 6-8 weeks from the ATH, BTC will recover to 0.702 FIB drawn between its ATH to the bottom of its following dip.
4) BTC will kiss the 0.702 the kiss of death into the abyss of the bear market along with Alts.
* If the above plays out, I’m safe and ready with my conservative targets and stop losses to exit to USDT.
* If the above doesn’t play out and BTC rallies beyond 90k-100k. I’d lose only on BTC gains but still capitalize on Alts gains.
I can’t stress how stressful it will be to remain rational while the market goes into frenzy mode. But if one gets greedy with Alts during the bull run, you'll end up with a bag of rocks during the bear market. That’s why I’m setting conservative targets that can save us yet remain sustainable till till next bull run.
DISCLAIMER
While I do follow very reputed TAs on YT (Benjamin Cowen, CoinsKid & BlockChain Backer), where the three share tons of high quality TA tackling the market with different indicators and theories, I choose to build my exit plan as per BCB to remain grounded and safe. Yet, I am here giving them all credit for their insight.
Theories circulating the market:
1) BTC May have a long bull run with triple tops this cycle.
2) BTC will not again have a 3 year bear market as it’s getting mainstream.
3) Stock 2 Flow Model has been accurate so far predicting 6 figures Bitcoin this bull run. And I already posted my S2F theory taking BTC to 188k four months ago.
So I am not living under the rock, and I am aware of different scenarios that may get played out this cycle.
HOWEVER... I plan to play it very safe to avoid being taken by surprise with my pants down with a conservative approach as follows:
1) BTC has very little room to go up. 70s-80s tops. I’m selling my BTC into Alts at 72k.
2) once BTC dips from its ATH, Alts will rally. (Alts Season)
3) within 6-8 weeks from the ATH, BTC will recover to 0.702 FIB drawn between its ATH to the bottom of its following dip.
4) BTC will kiss the 0.702 the kiss of death into the abyss of the bear market along with Alts.
* If the above plays out, I’m safe and ready with my conservative targets and stop losses to exit to USDT.
* If the above doesn’t play out and BTC rallies beyond 90k-100k. I’d lose only on BTC gains but still capitalize on Alts gains.
I can’t stress how stressful it will be to remain rational while the market goes into frenzy mode. But if one gets greedy with Alts during the bull run, you'll end up with a bag of rocks during the bear market. That’s why I’m setting conservative targets that can save us yet remain sustainable till till next bull run.
DISCLAIMER
While I do follow very reputed TAs on YT (Benjamin Cowen, CoinsKid & BlockChain Backer), where the three share tons of high quality TA tackling the market with different indicators and theories, I choose to build my exit plan as per BCB to remain grounded and safe. Yet, I am here giving them all credit for their insight.
Unless you figure a way to make money while you sleep, you’ll work till you die.
Penafian
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