I thought I would post an update on my last chart on this subject, see linked below.
I think it is safe to say (for now) that BTCUSD has found a bottom. From it's all time high around 19.9k, we have seen a 70% correction. I believe we have finished our first intermediate corrective wave down. I believe our wave (A) was structured as a leading diagonal motive wave. It is subdivided by a 5-3-5-3-5 wave pattern, which we saw. Our last push down, that put us at new local lows, was the typically overthrown 5th wave. Our price target in the long term will be the 78.6% and 61.8% retracements, which equate to just shy of $17,000 and $15,000 respectively. A common target for falling wedges is the highest point of the wedge (wave 2), which confirms the 78.6%/17k target. From there we can expect a push downwward of roughly the same degree, A=C, on a percent scale. 70% of the two targets above puts us around $5,000 and $4,350.
I would expect either an inverse head and shoulders or inverse Adam and Eve pattern to lead into our reversal here (small time frames). Key resistances to watch on our way up are going to be all psychological resistances, 9k, 10k, 12K, etc. Also watch dynamic resistances, such as the upper trend line of our falling wedge (diagonal triangle) and the red lines drawn from historic supports/resistances.
Some dates to keep in mind are the CBOE and CME futures settlement/expiration dates. CBOE = February 16th and CME = February 28th. I expect this rally to be rather strong so those dates as targets may not be unreasonable.
As for other crpytocurrencies, thus far they have rallied quite hard. If BTC begins to pickup steam, I think they may start to fall behind, or even suffer slightly. This is just a theory, so we will have to wait and see. I will try and post some in-depth analysis on Ethereum and other popular tokens here in the coming days.
EDIT: I don't know why the chart is off-center sometimes..
*THIS IS NOT TRADING/FINANCIAL ADVICE, SIMPLY MY THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS*
Komen
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I was unsure on the CBOE futures date, it's February 14th apparently.
Komen
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For tracking the potential inverse head and shoulders on intraday time frames:
If this pans out, we're going to want to watch for expanding volume as the right shoulder approaches the neckline/breaks out.
Komen
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Fun fact: As long as we close below $9225, today will be the first TD count buy signal
These are the only other two daily buys since May 2015 when BTC was $231
This aligns with where I think price is headed, first buy signal in 2013 pre-bear market:
Komen
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Komen
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I'd like to see further upward movement. If we find that this is the top of wave (B), and (A)=(C) on a percent basis, then we are looking at the $3500 area...
last update is what im thinking. go to 9k with all these bulldivs and expect tomorrow some "china" fud or smth to blame dip on. the riches need to buy more btc and need panic, but no lower than 5900 (or 100b btc marketcap)
Manifested
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@valtersboze, I'm sure people will find some fundamental news to give the move causality, but this is what I see from a technical perspective at least. At any rate this move up is not done quite yet.
valtersboze
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@Manifested, word on streets real resistance only at 11.8+ lets see if 9k sends us back already. either way they want people to panic and sell their btcs, no way this is over yet. the FUD always comes 1-2h after the dip, they time it wrong :D i try to mix TA but always keep in mind global business and FA and this baby is going very high this year, probably 6 digits unless we get blown off the 3 year parabola
Manifested
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@valtersboze, Fundamentals is one thing, but in the world of crypto, you better not trust an article by it's title alone. True FA won't come about until these tokens start having actual use-cases and we can start actually assigning real valuations to them. Right now its 99% speculation. Definitely agree about the resistance though, although I would argue 10k will put up a fight somewhat. After that though we didn't slow down much on the way to 6k.
I see our climb to 17k/15k being a slow and arduous one, we'll have resistances galore all the way up by then.
valtersboze
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@Manifested, slow yes, but by 15k the bovies will multiply exponentially, even people who sold 6k will come back :> bear market would mean sub 6k and TA traders put their buys at 5400-5700, but investment funds are fighting hard for this to get regulated and legal to dive in with your retirement money and wont let btc fall below 100bn market cap (which is 5900) thus "FA buyers" got their fills sooner