robertjulius

Repeat of pattern; possible bottom scenarios for BTC

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
So, i'd like to draw a comparison to the last time BTC             broke the 4h 200moving average; in mid november.

We see a very similar pattern here two.

5 waves up, followed by an A-B-C correction, followed by a bounce an a simle two-wave correction to higher lows; a bullish continuation.

This scenario is not yet out of the window to be repeated.

(We are ofcourse headed to what may well be a head and shoulders bulltrap that will see us back down to 8thousand USD in bitcoin             , But:)

We might retest the 0.5 fib from the last low - which in a lovely harmony is drawn from the very bottom of the same november dip to the All-time-high last week - and continue higher from there, just as we have done in November, before we broke out to the upside of the log-scale channel so famously pointed out by @PeterBrandt (sp?) at the time.

So, i'm tempted to say: Short it here and cover at 12610. Then see if we make the same mistake again - rallying to an ATH             - or if we continue higher like human beings with battlescars, or , if we drop down further - but at least you didn't hodl for *all* of that.

Confirmation? If it bounces above 12610 and holds, and then a 4h close above the 200MA after the 2-wave             correction from that bounce. Just like it did in november.

Counter-indication? If we fail to hold 12610, or if the bounce off of it doesn't bring us back above the 4h 200, or if the correction from that bounces closes and remains below it.

Komen:

Ofcourse a closeup of the events in early to mid november reveals another, far more likely picture: Of how after a foolishly fomo-fed all-time-high and a head-and-shoulders pattern, BTC/USD crashed down hard, bounced off the 0.5 fib of the last move to a bulltrap onto the 0.618, only to continue even lower to the 0.868 of the same move. Where would that put us today?
Komen: 7164.
Komen: Hourly 15 was resistance, now tentative support.

The bulltrap is still underway
Komen:

This idea from back in november has some trendlines that might be relevant to the scenario's we're looking at here.
Komen: click for a zoomable chart.
Komen: So far we touched the exact fib level I indicated as support earlier and have indeed continued higher. It's a little early to call it finished, for that I would need to see it retest a bullish trendline.
Komen: Yeah, good, we're in another upswing for now. Repeat of pattern is on.
Komen: We'll do another two waves higher, or a two wave correction before turning higher.
Komen: Correction has started.
Komen: for the moment, a 4h close above the 200 moving average is still just a correction.
So, you think it is going down? Thanks!
Balas
robertjulius rustynail79
@rustynail79, Please help me make future charts more clear by explaining how you got to this interpretation of what i'm saying, because no, i mean we're in for another rally higher.
Balas
rustynail79 robertjulius
@robertjulius, sorry, I got it until I was kind of unsure about "repeat of pattern is on", so I thought i should ask. Thank you!
Balas
MS Bahasa Melayu
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Laman Utama Pengimbas Saham Pengesan Isyarat Forex Pencari isyarat mata wang Crypto Kalendar Ekonomi Bagaimana ia berfungsi Ciri-ciri Carta Peraturan Rumah Moderator Laman web dan Penyelesaian Broker Widget Perpustakaan Carta Stok Permintaan Ciri Blog & Berita Soalan Lazim Bantuan & Wiki Twitter
Profil Pengesetan Profil Akaun dan Bil Tiket Sokongan Saya Hubungi Sokongan Idea-idea yang diterbitkan Pengikut Mengikuti Mesej Peribadi Perbualan Log Keluar