BTC 4H Wyckoff Analysis - accumulation or redistribution?
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Humans tend to see patterns when they look for them hard enough, so please take this with a grain of salt.
I see a bit of Wyckoff behaviour forming here on the 4H BTC chart over the last few weeks. The key elements of an accumulation pattern seem to be in place.
1. PS was established after strong price momentum downward on higher volume.
2. An SC was established on similar volume soon after.
3. An ST on high volume was attempted before achieving an AR and the range high.
3. AR quickly establishes range high as buying pressure diminishes. The fact that it appears significantly higher than PS is a bit off-script, but the pattern remains mostly coherent until now.
4. ST? is a TEST, but you would expect supply to diminish appreciably. It didn't in this case, so we can expect another retest. It does look like a SPRING on the chart however.
5. A subsequent RETEST at ST on Jan 2 has the characteristic Low Vol which may indicate exhausted supply. This could be our 'successful' test.
6. (FUTURE) - if the pattern holds, then we are headed up to an SOS level above the established AR. This confirmation can provide encouragement to Bulls to start building long positions. The fact that it happens to coincide with a weekly channel resistance line is very ominous indeed.
If i'm wrong, then 3 possibilities exist.
1. Wyckoff patterns don't have much significance in non-traditional crypto markets that aren't heavily influenced by institutional traders with evil intent.
2. I horribly misclassified a Wyckoff pattern where none exists.
3. Wyckoff indeed is coherent for BTC, and i failed to properly identify a 'Redistribution' pattern
I see a bit of Wyckoff behaviour forming here on the 4H BTC chart over the last few weeks. The key elements of an accumulation pattern seem to be in place.
1. PS was established after strong price momentum downward on higher volume.
2. An SC was established on similar volume soon after.
3. An ST on high volume was attempted before achieving an AR and the range high.
3. AR quickly establishes range high as buying pressure diminishes. The fact that it appears significantly higher than PS is a bit off-script, but the pattern remains mostly coherent until now.
4. ST? is a TEST, but you would expect supply to diminish appreciably. It didn't in this case, so we can expect another retest. It does look like a SPRING on the chart however.
5. A subsequent RETEST at ST on Jan 2 has the characteristic Low Vol which may indicate exhausted supply. This could be our 'successful' test.
6. (FUTURE) - if the pattern holds, then we are headed up to an SOS level above the established AR. This confirmation can provide encouragement to Bulls to start building long positions. The fact that it happens to coincide with a weekly channel resistance line is very ominous indeed.
If i'm wrong, then 3 possibilities exist.
1. Wyckoff patterns don't have much significance in non-traditional crypto markets that aren't heavily influenced by institutional traders with evil intent.
2. I horribly misclassified a Wyckoff pattern where none exists.
3. Wyckoff indeed is coherent for BTC, and i failed to properly identify a 'Redistribution' pattern
Nota
Big shout out to @coldbloodshill for helping me understand these concepts.
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