BITCOIN - ETFs = Top ?

Bitcoin ETFs have been approved and hit the markets today with wild volatility coming in.

From the previous thread I have adjusted the extension Golden Window (GW).

In the previous thread I was using the 3 point trend based extension.

But using the same extremity pivots here I am using the 2 point "Fib Retracement" that can be used also for extension.

I am finding that this extension is often the more accurate but they both capture major pivots.

And so BTC has probed into the 2.272 extension GW (2.272 - 2.414)

This is also still within the blue band which is the 0.618 GW retracement taken from the bear market.

Also I have put the retracement ratio of last cycle top in this area which was 0.807. @ 51.7K

If BTC continues with repetition then likely it will top in this area and if it was an exact price copy of last cycle then it will get to $51.7K.

However because it is hitting the 2.272 GW and the overshoot 2.414 is below the 0.807 ratio, I do not think it will get quite as high as last cycle to hit $51.7K, but its not off the table.

Seeing ETFs open it is reminding me of when COIN was released back in April 2021 and that day was the top for COIN and BTC.

This is IBIT - which is Blackrock iShares Bitcoin ETF.

I think judging by the open today the COIN trap could happen again as "dumb money" comes rushing in to buy them, only to carry the bags right at the tippety top.

There has been a lot of hubbub on youtube etc that this will be a "sell the news" event and I thought that would be a clue something else would happen.

But we'll see, it does look quite similar to COIN in 2021 today.

I am opening a few shorts in crypto stocks SQ and CLSK as they are looking particularly weak but remain long in altcoins.

Will be looking to buy a Bitcoin ETF on a deep correction.

My correction target currently is support @ $31.8K

Not advice

Komen:

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Komen:

So far the dump through the demand lines looks fairly toothless with the one bearish momentum candle (arrow) on the 18th being much smaller than high momentum bearish whipsaw candle on the 12th (arrow).

And since then we have 3 small doji candles that I think signal the bearish action is either exhausted or very nearly exhausted in this short term area.

Notice that it hasn't taken out the low of the trading range as yet and it may do but it looks out of steam here I think.

And so it looks like a bounce may come soon.

Either one last slump to break the trading range or right in this current area.

This is positive for the possibility of Bitcoin holding this area for a while.

And its not impossible for another wave up but I dont think that will happen.

Whenever it bounces there will likely be some altcoin pumps 😂.

Komen:

As I suggested, Bitcoin dumped below the trading range only to recover.

And so we had high volatility whipsaw printing a bullish hammer candle in reversal.

This has been a pleasant moment to pick up some altcoins and Bitcoin mining stocks.