If you don't want to lose your shirt, this is the time to stay calm. This is where you need to be cynical and shut everything out. Maybe take 30 minutes and just stare at the chart. This time it aint different, and it never will be.
Bitcoin has jumped higher then I expected! Probably higher then you expected as well.
It's been a crazy year and we who have been here since the last bubble are all rich now.
The amount of new people entering is astonishing! Dumb money is being poured into the crypto space, and the majority of it is entering Bitcoin in this historical bubble.
Why do I call it dumb money? Because it's money that is entering on hype and FOMO. Money that didnt buy when the media phase started, and certantly not when Bitcoin was in the shadows.
It's money that has been to afraid to enter the market because it didnt believe in the tech. But now that it hears "everybody" else is making big bucks on Bitcoin it wants in.
Is it money that is intented to be used on the underlying asset? No. It's pure speculation and greed. It's money that dont have an exit strategy, it just wants to be included. A reciepe for disaster.
Let's take a look at the fundamentals and ask ourself, what is the difference now from 1 year ago?
We have more people using BTC , obviously, but it's mostly used on speculation.
Now we don't have 1 Bitcoin anymore, we have 4 with huge marketcaps. The scaling saga is maybe more positive now then it was 1 year ago, but it's a big maybe.
Lightning network is a very promising project and I have big faith in it, however, at this stage it is barely a working product.
Big blocks was a solution for today, but far from sustainable, and fundamentally it has done BIG damage to Bitcoin Core.
Is the ordinary financial world collapsing? Do you have problems paying for a loaf of bread with dollars (or have to grossly overpay)?
The world may be in terrible shape, but currently, the economic shape is fantastic!
If this reality changes, we have a different picture, but until then Bitcoin aint worth 10 grand! I rather take the fiat for now, MUCH easier to spend ;)
And oh.. We have launch, which is a big driver for the hype we are seeing. Insititutional money will enter the Bitcoin market. But is it really a positive? First of, its more likely then not that it has already entered and a big possibility that the money coming in will be used to make Bitcoin go down, not up.
On the other hand, its not even a guarantee that the will launch. And for the first time I have reached the maximum amount of charachters so you need to research that yourself :)
We have a classic bubble going on, and I believe we are in the final stage! I can just feel it in my bones. Gravity left for vacation, but a vacation dont last forever, and when vacation is over, harder times are ahead.
So is this the top? I have no idea. It could very well go above 10k, it could go 11.5k, but if it goes above 12-13k I have made a mistake and need to take the consequences.
Because I am shorting here at 9700 USD. I am hodling that position all the way up to 12k if that's what it takes. It's just a too good number to pass up this trade right now.
Earlier today at 9490 USD I sold every bit of Bitcoin I had left. I am now 50% alts and 50% cash. Looking to reinvest in Bitcoin in the 3-5k-5k area, and possibly hold short until 5100 USD!
I have been wrong on Bitcoin TA already through this bubble, but to be fair, so has a big majority of traders in this space.
Bitcoin have just shattered rules and destroyed rational predictions.
- Short - 9700 USD
- Buy - 5100 USD
- Stop Loss - 12k-13k range
We are now on the 13th green 4 hour candle!!
That's just bat shit crazy. Let's hope the major crash comes here :)
It's cynical to say, but when you see people that is in bad financial shape want to throw what they can into something that is above the moon and think they will become rich from it, you know danger is ahead.
Not proof obiously, as you can never know for certain what is gonna happen.
But atleast an indication.
And I am looking at that 0.618! Should be a place for some support short term.
Putting in buy order at 8820. For 1/5 value of my short. So risking 20% of short position on a small trade for a small profit :)
Can it break? And much more importantly, can it hold?
If 10k breaks and we get a big dump right after, that's something that really could accelerate fast. That's why I don't have any stops above 10k, I will watch the market like a hawk and decrease my position if need be.
So yes I was premature, but that happens. Can't hit the nail every time.
Like I said yesterday, I watched the market and decreased my position a bit when it was clear that 10k was broken. Getting my risk level down a bit, and sticking to plan. Can add to it again when the time is right.
12-13k is the area where I would need to get ready to get out.
Let's see what happens! Exciting times in cryptoland :D
Here is some fibs I'm looking at:
Here is my continuation of this idea:
Where I look at how this might play out and what targets I am interested in.