The initial idea is still alive. The probability stays the same - around 50%. It will be compromised if the market crosses down "critical point B". If the market overlaps "critical point A" then the probability of this variant is going to jump significantly.
The original idea is published here:
Please do not be confused. This is not pure Elliott Wave
Analysis. This analysis is based on my fork of Elliot
theory. The simplified concept of this fork is published here: https://plus.google.com/102703249206977009572/posts/Sc1MCdZiWNR