BTC: DOES THE OBV TELL US WHERE WE ARE IN THE CYCLE

I recently shared a post which illustrated how to use the OBV (attached - please review) which showed us how and why it is useful.

In short, it combines cumulative price direction AND volume and helps illustrate where critical relative volumous price action takes place, relative to that which has taken place before it.

In this chart we can see that once Bitcoin bottomed in 2015, only the final run up back to the pre-capitulative level saw Bitcoin's OBV retrace 38% off the highs. That run, took Bitcoin back about 24% of the way back to its ATH which was around $400.

Should Bitocin continue its current run and get another volume kicker, throguh volume or other, it woudl indicate that Bitcoin could ultimately break back across $6k.

The reason why i think this could be possible is for the following reasons:

1) Due to the almighty fomo that would come about when people realise that they cannot by lower or even at the 3$k level they were at.. im expecting disbelief in the comments and that is just confirmation for me. I.e. this would cause the most upset and confusion.
2) Cycles are shortening because people know what the halvning hype does to price, which we have seen with LTC already.
3) The role volume plays is largly being overlooked.
4) Mt Gox coins are now likely to be locked up for future years.
5) i would like to win my bet with Lucid investments / Hyperwave before the end of the year :))) (personal bias)

Anyway, an interesting observation so i thought i would share it - there is a lot of resistance above, but i wouldnt count out a mega wick to the upside.

If you like this analysis you can follow me on twitter and my other work. same handle.

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai:

Another one done.