BITCOIN Going for the Cycle's Lower Highs trendline and 1W MA100

19 Sep 2023

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to test a major Resistance cluster, the Lower Highs trend-line from the Cycle's 2nd High and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). The latter was the Resistance level that stopped the rally in July. The price has been essentially consolidating sideways within the 1W MA100 and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since. The former (Lower Highs) is the trend-line that was a key Resistance in the past two Cycles and its break-out coincided with the break above the 1W MA100 as well.

Today BTC is only 30 weeks (210 days) before Halving 4 (April 2024). Going back to the past two Cycles, we can see that in both cases the price was exactly on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level on that respective date/time range and at the same time above the 1W MA100 (though only marginally). Today the price is roughly $5000 below the 0.5 Fib and below the 1W MA100. Can this be an indication that this Cycle may not be as aggressive? We can't be sure but what we do know is that a break above the Lower Highs and 1W MA100 trend-lines would be a strong medium-term bullish signal, at least until next year's Halving.

But what do you think? Are you expecting Bitcoin to finally break above the Lower Highs trend-line and the 1W MA100 on the current rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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