BTC:USD Weekly EW Counts with SMA & SAR Support/Resistance
Weekly Timeframe Forecast:
Since December 2018 where we bottomed at 3122 and topped at 4236 we've been on a complex corrective structure, which leads me to conclude we're in a B wave formation with a possible C Wave in the works. Here's why:
WXY Pattern to retest December 2018 lows
ABC Correction to retest the highs at 42K.
A possible Ascending Triangle formation (a double top).
A wave height extending 1.618 from a B wave ending at 1.272 Fib extension from our recent top at 4190.
Sideways Action to test SMAs:
After the impulsive drop on Feb 18th, 2019 we're pushing upwards to test the 20W SMA and break through the weekly SAR points along the way (which we haven't done since July 2018). Expect a rejection to retest the 200 SMA (which converges with the ascending trendline of the Ascending triangle and the 1.272 Fib extension from our most recent top at 4190).
Confirmations:
A bounce off the 200W SMA, a break above the 20W SMA (which we haven't done since July of 2018) and a push above the ascending triangle will confirm this ABC corrective pattern and will catch price up to the 50W SMA. Expect a massive rejection there.
Invalidation:
A break below the 200W SMA and the December 2018 lows will invalidate the Ascending Triangle formation and the ABC corrective pattern.
Thanks for reading. Good luck trading.
Since December 2018 where we bottomed at 3122 and topped at 4236 we've been on a complex corrective structure, which leads me to conclude we're in a B wave formation with a possible C Wave in the works. Here's why:
WXY Pattern to retest December 2018 lows
ABC Correction to retest the highs at 42K.
A possible Ascending Triangle formation (a double top).
A wave height extending 1.618 from a B wave ending at 1.272 Fib extension from our recent top at 4190.
Sideways Action to test SMAs:
After the impulsive drop on Feb 18th, 2019 we're pushing upwards to test the 20W SMA and break through the weekly SAR points along the way (which we haven't done since July 2018). Expect a rejection to retest the 200 SMA (which converges with the ascending trendline of the Ascending triangle and the 1.272 Fib extension from our most recent top at 4190).
Confirmations:
A bounce off the 200W SMA, a break above the 20W SMA (which we haven't done since July of 2018) and a push above the ascending triangle will confirm this ABC corrective pattern and will catch price up to the 50W SMA. Expect a massive rejection there.
Invalidation:
A break below the 200W SMA and the December 2018 lows will invalidate the Ascending Triangle formation and the ABC corrective pattern.
Thanks for reading. Good luck trading.
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