BTC - Bullish Scenario - Short Term
Telah dikemas kini
It has been a while, so first I would like to thank you for reading this post. As always, I welcome any positive constructive comments and points of view I may have missed. To be clear I am bearish mid-term (4-6 months), and bullish long-term (+1 year) on Bitcoin...and I have been quite bearish for a while. Earlier today I was working on some quick TA for a tweet (I will post the link in the comments section since there are some charts in it that were not saved that are pertinent to this post) and I noticed a few things that peaked my interest into making this analysis, so here we go...
In the chart below we can see the Fibonacci Time Zone tool, which has been pretty on point...the next Fib Time Zone is December 10, 2018...
In a look closer on the Daily, over the past 8 months, we can see where Divergences have built on the Stochastic RSI...currently BTC Stochastic is at the base of a completed double bottom with a bullish divergence...
With a complete bottoming out of the RSI on the Daily...
An RSI that hasn't been this low since August 16, 2015...
And not nearly this close since August 13, 2016...
Godmode on the Daily has fired long with a bullish cross...
Now the following two charts pertain to my bearish tweet (linked in the comments section at the end of this analysis) from earlier today prior to the Weekly close, and in comparison we can see a fast and significant drop in the Godmode leading indicator...
and Stochastic RSI...
...which are breaking down bearish with little movement (currently) from BTC's price in the same direction. This potentially signifies a local bottom in or near this area...
And, finally, on the Weekly we see last weeks candle bottom broke the lower Bollinger Band and price is currently moving toward a second break for a double bottom...the last time BTC came even close to the lower Bollinger Band it saw a price increase of nearly $3000...
Locally, on the 4 Hour, the Bollinger Bands have tightened, with an oversold Stochastic RSI and a bearish cross on the Godmode...
Price is already beginning to break to the down side for a double bottom lower Bollinger band break with Stochastics and Godmode moving towards a bottoming...with this I am looking for another downward move toward the 5300 level for a double bottom...
...this move could very well take all week to set up, bottoming out the indicators, or, with how swiftly they have been moving it could happen in 24 hours- your guess is as good as mine...
...but after that move, with Daily's and Weekly's coinciding here I am inclined to think an abrupt, and unexpected move by many, up towards the 7300 level is in fair play...
My overall outlook on Bitcoin remains the same, with an end of the bear market nearer to the $3300 level...
...but these signs are telling me we may need to wait a bit more for that...updates to come.
In the chart below we can see the Fibonacci Time Zone tool, which has been pretty on point...the next Fib Time Zone is December 10, 2018...
In a look closer on the Daily, over the past 8 months, we can see where Divergences have built on the Stochastic RSI...currently BTC Stochastic is at the base of a completed double bottom with a bullish divergence...
With a complete bottoming out of the RSI on the Daily...
An RSI that hasn't been this low since August 16, 2015...
And not nearly this close since August 13, 2016...
Godmode on the Daily has fired long with a bullish cross...
Now the following two charts pertain to my bearish tweet (linked in the comments section at the end of this analysis) from earlier today prior to the Weekly close, and in comparison we can see a fast and significant drop in the Godmode leading indicator...
and Stochastic RSI...
...which are breaking down bearish with little movement (currently) from BTC's price in the same direction. This potentially signifies a local bottom in or near this area...
And, finally, on the Weekly we see last weeks candle bottom broke the lower Bollinger Band and price is currently moving toward a second break for a double bottom...the last time BTC came even close to the lower Bollinger Band it saw a price increase of nearly $3000...
Locally, on the 4 Hour, the Bollinger Bands have tightened, with an oversold Stochastic RSI and a bearish cross on the Godmode...
Price is already beginning to break to the down side for a double bottom lower Bollinger band break with Stochastics and Godmode moving towards a bottoming...with this I am looking for another downward move toward the 5300 level for a double bottom...
...this move could very well take all week to set up, bottoming out the indicators, or, with how swiftly they have been moving it could happen in 24 hours- your guess is as good as mine...
...but after that move, with Daily's and Weekly's coinciding here I am inclined to think an abrupt, and unexpected move by many, up towards the 7300 level is in fair play...
My overall outlook on Bitcoin remains the same, with an end of the bear market nearer to the $3300 level...
...but these signs are telling me we may need to wait a bit more for that...updates to come.
Nota
Overnight BTC broke down to the 5300 level as expected...a break below 5100 invalidates any short to mid term bullish case with the next major support level at 3600Nota
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNND ITS GONE.
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