Two scenarios for Light Crude Oil
Hello All,
I am still of the general impression that this is an ABC correction before another drop. Saying that, I have included a bulish view as well.
If the current wedge fails to reach at least as long as the previous one - then the short view is validated. The second wedge could still breakout upwards for a small distance and still fail to meake the 1:1 measurement.
If the short view materialises, crude has a tendency to have a langer wave A and and a shorter wave C, which is why I put wave (C) at the 0.786 fib extension. When wave (C) terminates I would expect to label this point wave (4) and to be expecting a wave (5) up to at least $90 a barrel. It might fall short, it might exceed this - let's see. In commodities the 5th wave tends to be the most commonly extended wave, so $100+ a barrel is a very real possibility by the end of the year if this all plays out.
The long view is that there is no C wave down (or that it has already happened and it was somehow missed) and the current waves that now seem corrective rallies are actually forming wave 1 and 2 of a new impulse move up. This would mean that crude stays in the channel up.
I am publishing this for my own technical analysis education. This view includes no fundamental analysis.
I am still of the general impression that this is an ABC correction before another drop. Saying that, I have included a bulish view as well.
If the current wedge fails to reach at least as long as the previous one - then the short view is validated. The second wedge could still breakout upwards for a small distance and still fail to meake the 1:1 measurement.
If the short view materialises, crude has a tendency to have a langer wave A and and a shorter wave C, which is why I put wave (C) at the 0.786 fib extension. When wave (C) terminates I would expect to label this point wave (4) and to be expecting a wave (5) up to at least $90 a barrel. It might fall short, it might exceed this - let's see. In commodities the 5th wave tends to be the most commonly extended wave, so $100+ a barrel is a very real possibility by the end of the year if this all plays out.
The long view is that there is no C wave down (or that it has already happened and it was somehow missed) and the current waves that now seem corrective rallies are actually forming wave 1 and 2 of a new impulse move up. This would mean that crude stays in the channel up.
I am publishing this for my own technical analysis education. This view includes no fundamental analysis.
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