DXY: The dollar index is probing key support at 98.67 which must continue to hold up if the dollar is to avoid a serious deterioration in technical outlook
Komen:
DXY Close Up (skip the blah if you want, there's a summary at bottom of this messsage (no more chart updates until later as I've hit the 10 downloads limit for the day)
Further to last night's comment looking for a short term Dollar bounce from the recent lows at 98.66...
Although it has held up exactly where you'd expect it to - off that intersection of two key support lines - the rally so far is
being capped by overhead selling at 99.27...it cannot even close that little gap just above 99.27 - which is becoming an increasing worry for Dollar bulls - and with the Dollar
already meeting resistance V JPY it really is beginning to feel as if the only thing that can keep the Dollar afloat is more
talk of problems with N Korea. Discretion is the better part of valour right now (unless you're the President of course) so feel it's better to go flat and await signals to re-open positions.
So until it can break above 99.27 the Dollar is still in a weak technical position. I'm closing out longs and waiting to see if
Dollar can get above here and hold, and then it should be worth following for near term move up to 100.5 where it
becomes a sell again off the falling line of resistance.
Returning to the downside, the Dollar is at least holding up where it should do with three days' of price action hammering
out higher highs, tracking the rising support line faithfully. So it's not dead yet but it is on life support here.
SUMMARY
Right now it's in neutral, which is where I want to be too until we get the signal we need...
It gets out of neutral on a move above 99.30 for rally to 100.5 where it becomes a sell again.
And it tips back into seriously negative territory on a break below 98.60 with a near term downside target created at 96
and then, looking beyond a good bounce from 96, down to the 93-92 range.
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Further to last night's comment looking for a short term Dollar bounce from the recent lows at 98.66...
Although it has held up exactly where you'd expect it to - off that intersection of two key support lines - the rally so far is
being capped by overhead selling at 99.27...it cannot even close that little gap just above 99.27 - which is becoming an increasing worry for Dollar bulls - and with the Dollar
already meeting resistance V JPY it really is beginning to feel as if the only thing that can keep the Dollar afloat is more
talk of problems with N Korea. Discretion is the better part of valour right now (unless you're the President of course) so feel it's better to go flat and await signals to re-open positions.
So until it can break above 99.27 the Dollar is still in a weak technical position. I'm closing out longs and waiting to see if
Dollar can get above here and hold, and then it should be worth following for near term move up to 100.5 where it
becomes a sell again off the falling line of resistance.
Returning to the downside, the Dollar is at least holding up where it should do with three days' of price action hammering
out higher highs, tracking the rising support line faithfully. So it's not dead yet but it is on life support here.
SUMMARY
Right now it's in neutral, which is where I want to be too until we get the signal we need...
It gets out of neutral on a move above 99.30 for rally to 100.5 where it becomes a sell again.
And it tips back into seriously negative territory on a break below 98.60 with a near term downside target created at 96
and then, looking beyond a good bounce from 96, down to the 93-92 range.