Bears headed to Mid Week Slaughter: BTFD

20 Jul 2021

After a drama-filled day filled with sensational media coverage of the Delta Variant - which has been known about for many months and mainly sickens anti-vaxxers - the 10-period regression line has crossed both the 30 period regression line and the middle 14-period 0.2 STDV Bollinger Band, setting up a solid long opportunity to the upper 2 STDV Band (around 4343).

Go long here - target 4343 in the coming days. Even if we've topped, it looks like - at minimum - a lower higher in the 4340's is inevitable.

21 Jul 2021

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Trade closed. Target achieved and then some.

I only used 1 lot, but had I used more, I might have left one to ride as one interpretation of recent events is ATH above 4400+. Another would be a lower high somewhere around 4360. If I had to guess, I think we WILL make a new high around 4400, but the highs are becoming weaker and weaker - each one taking longer to reach and each one representing a smaller % gain from the previous. We consolidated for nearly all of May and all of June to eventually surpass the early May high of 4230 by...150 points. Last year, that kind of sideways pattern would have led to a rip of 4-500 points. In Bitcoin, we saw a similar thing play out before a marginal new high was made, and the bottom fell out. I'm looking for something similar in /ES. It is, of course, not time to short yet. Only a brave idiot would do this now.

However, if we do fail at 4360 or make a marginal new high around 4400, even recent bull market history would suggest, at minimum, a sideways pattern for a few months.