Ethereum back to $184 by January? >:^)&
Right now, ETH is reaching some historical price levels that acted as support and resistance from 2017. What I'm seeing is kind of an upside-down fractal from the start of the bull run, about where the price is now. The rapid increase in dollar price during the months of May and June is comparable to the rapid decrease in the last couple of months, notably the fact that there were 5 green candles in a row followed by a massive retracement. Now we have had 5 red candles in a row. Does it not seem logical that at these price ranges, we could expect to see the reverse happen? The $84 level where we bounced could be a local low for the coming weeks, as it was an important level in 2017. The most bullish scenario would see huge buying volume in the coming weeks, essentially setting a double bottom from 18 months ago.
Having run the numbers, if the retracement is proportional to 2017 bullrun, ETH could see a return to the mid one-hundreds by January. This is supported by the RSI also being at a historical bounce level, but it has been even lower in the past.
Furthermore, I'd like to point on the volume situation we have here is much greater than the volume in the first fractal, which could mean that capitulation is already happening and this bullish scenario is out of the question until we go even lower on the RSI and it starts to turn upwards.
Alternatively, if we break below the $84, there is little support, and capitulation may happen, so somewhere a little lower than that could be a decent stop-loss. What happens will depend heavily on BTC's movements, which I will aim to make an analysis about later.
Just wanted to throw out this Ethereum chart as another way to look at things from the general bearish sentiment :) Could it be possible? Let me know in the comments.
Having run the numbers, if the retracement is proportional to 2017 bullrun, ETH could see a return to the mid one-hundreds by January. This is supported by the RSI also being at a historical bounce level, but it has been even lower in the past.
Furthermore, I'd like to point on the volume situation we have here is much greater than the volume in the first fractal, which could mean that capitulation is already happening and this bullish scenario is out of the question until we go even lower on the RSI and it starts to turn upwards.
Alternatively, if we break below the $84, there is little support, and capitulation may happen, so somewhere a little lower than that could be a decent stop-loss. What happens will depend heavily on BTC's movements, which I will aim to make an analysis about later.
Just wanted to throw out this Ethereum chart as another way to look at things from the general bearish sentiment :) Could it be possible? Let me know in the comments.
Komen:
Looks like an attempt is being made on the smaller timeframes to break out from this trendline, but with little volume. Made a mistake with the trendline in the last update, should be more like this.
Komen:
ETH had a big dump after a false breakout above the flag. Not so surprising given the low volume. Starting to think this was more of a penant than a triangle, which means we broke down from it already. Now there is a small bear flag which might send us back to 84.
Komen:
This bearish wave count could be in play if we break the resistance at $84. Otherwise, there is a possibility that we could see a double bottom in play at the $83-$84 area, or possibly a Bart pattern giving us a truncated 5th wave to bring us back up to the highs.
I would not expect much sideways movement before a move up, otherwise this will likely turn into a bearish wedge. Still though, I think that there is not enough selling to break the support at the $83-$84 region if this wedge does break down. This leads me to believe a double bottom could really be in the cards for the short term. Not too much volume at the moment as it is weekend, so most likely scenario is we break out of the triangle on Monday.
I would not expect much sideways movement before a move up, otherwise this will likely turn into a bearish wedge. Still though, I think that there is not enough selling to break the support at the $83-$84 region if this wedge does break down. This leads me to believe a double bottom could really be in the cards for the short term. Not too much volume at the moment as it is weekend, so most likely scenario is we break out of the triangle on Monday.
Komen:
Quick update since we are nearing the support level.
This chart is lending much to speculation due to this very low volume, except for that we are trading within this yellow channel now. Same as what I said before, I don't believe we will make any meaningful move until the weekend hours are over.
On the bright side of things, it means that ETH Is a great pairing to sell your altcoins to because it's hardly moving at all compared to selling against BTC and just losing half the value within a week anyway.
This chart is lending much to speculation due to this very low volume, except for that we are trading within this yellow channel now. Same as what I said before, I don't believe we will make any meaningful move until the weekend hours are over.
On the bright side of things, it means that ETH Is a great pairing to sell your altcoins to because it's hardly moving at all compared to selling against BTC and just losing half the value within a week anyway.
Komen:
So we touched the bottom EXACTLY where I drew this line the Bart move completed! Now the previous support of that triangle we Bart-ed down from is now acting as hourly resistance as you can see from that big wick.
Bullish scenario: We need to move up soon (ideally by tomorrow) to cross above the black trendline which is acting as resistance, from which we can make another move up. Volume is gradually increasing but still crap.
Bearish scenario: Another Bart move down to the orange support line again and this whole move will turn out to be just yet another Lower High on this timeframe.
MACD also just made a bearish crossover on the 1 hour chart so my general view for the next 2 days is that we will drop down again, as in the second scenario.
Don't forget to leave a like if you have made it this far into the bear market.
Bullish scenario: We need to move up soon (ideally by tomorrow) to cross above the black trendline which is acting as resistance, from which we can make another move up. Volume is gradually increasing but still crap.
Bearish scenario: Another Bart move down to the orange support line again and this whole move will turn out to be just yet another Lower High on this timeframe.
MACD also just made a bearish crossover on the 1 hour chart so my general view for the next 2 days is that we will drop down again, as in the second scenario.
Don't forget to leave a like if you have made it this far into the bear market.
Komen:
Let's look a little closer.
There are many bulltrapped regions which is telling me that there is some short term manipulation going on and that some of this low volume is probably just bots trading rapidly for tiny percent gains as well. On the latest triangle, I think we will break down as we just made a false move above it. And that is basically weekend price action in a nutshell.
There are many bulltrapped regions which is telling me that there is some short term manipulation going on and that some of this low volume is probably just bots trading rapidly for tiny percent gains as well. On the latest triangle, I think we will break down as we just made a false move above it. And that is basically weekend price action in a nutshell.
Komen:
WELCOME to the second last week of 2018! :D (Well kind of.)
Check it out. If you scroll to the top and hit the arrow on that big chart, you will see that we are getting the first green candle in over a month and it is my STRONG belief that we will close green this week, as well as the next.
Short term trade is looking great, following that blue line. Not sure what to make of getting a couple of confirmations above then below that black trendline, but doesn't seem to be significant as it's making a nice bull flag now.
Check it out. If you scroll to the top and hit the arrow on that big chart, you will see that we are getting the first green candle in over a month and it is my STRONG belief that we will close green this week, as well as the next.
Short term trade is looking great, following that blue line. Not sure what to make of getting a couple of confirmations above then below that black trendline, but doesn't seem to be significant as it's making a nice bull flag now.
Komen:
WOW! It's bull flag after bull flag after bull flag... Bitmex in particular is looking pretty bullish for the short term with big buy walls coming up and a lot of volume.
I haven't seen this kind of price action in AGES! It makes me feel like something has changed in this market, but hard to say. So much chance for bull traps based on the recent past of bitcoin, so I'm going to show some caution in not going too crazy about it as I still believe this is one big corrective move rather than the start of a bull market already. Really really strong in the short term as it looks like ETH doesn't want to go anywhere but UP UP UP.
I haven't seen this kind of price action in AGES! It makes me feel like something has changed in this market, but hard to say. So much chance for bull traps based on the recent past of bitcoin, so I'm going to show some caution in not going too crazy about it as I still believe this is one big corrective move rather than the start of a bull market already. Really really strong in the short term as it looks like ETH doesn't want to go anywhere but UP UP UP.
Komen:
Small bullish PENANT breaking out :o
Just opened a small scalp with a bit of leverage so hopefully we can get a quick extra profit here :)
Just opened a small scalp with a bit of leverage so hopefully we can get a quick extra profit here :)
Komen:
And there it is :) Quick 10% margin gain. Nothing spectacular but nothing to cry about of course! Interestingly, we had a bear trapped region before making that huge candle up, from which we seem to be beginning to form ANOTHER flag. This is very bullish indeed.
Don't forget to like if this call helped! It gives me motivation to keep posting, and I want to keep doing this for a long time to grow this account so I'd really appreciate it.
Don't forget to like if this call helped! It gives me motivation to keep posting, and I want to keep doing this for a long time to grow this account so I'd really appreciate it.
Komen:
Okay, this one could take us back down to around 93 if it finishes. RSI and MACD weakening.
Komen:
So I've just seen we actually hit a high of just above $100 on finex. This probably shows it could be psychological resistance too, so bear that in mind if you are trading on bitmex
Komen:
Looking at the similar pattern on the BTC chart, not so convinced with the H&S now. Looks like there's not enough selling power to break it and we're just continuing up again :)
Going to sleep on this position now. I'll probably open a new idea tomorrow because this one is getting too long already.
Going to sleep on this position now. I'll probably open a new idea tomorrow because this one is getting too long already.
Komen:
Just a bigger bull flag.
Komen:
Seems like bears started to show their faces with that weird move yesterday that I originally thought might be an H&S, but they managed to turn it into a double top. This is really showing that this move might be over already, but some indicators are still moving up, like the bullish divergence on MACD and RSI but maybe we are running low on fuel for now.
If bulls are smart about this, we can continue the move up above to try to create some new support by printing a bullish wedge. What I'm thinking is the small bullish wedge will play out, and we'll go back to make a TRIPLE top and then dump.
Really enjoying keeping this one updated in the last couple days. I'll try and make a new analysis about what might come next in a few hours.
If bulls are smart about this, we can continue the move up above to try to create some new support by printing a bullish wedge. What I'm thinking is the small bullish wedge will play out, and we'll go back to make a TRIPLE top and then dump.
Really enjoying keeping this one updated in the last couple days. I'll try and make a new analysis about what might come next in a few hours.
Komen:
Komen:
New analysis
Need to break this triangle and the 9EMA on the daily before we have any chance of getting anywhere. The declining volume inside the volume is also not convincing. I think we could see a wick down that would be a bear trap to fill some longs and to be able to liquidate shorts on a squeeze upwards.
I will trade whichever way it breaks down and closes on the daily.