ETHUSD Update: 306 resistance taken out, but 315 still holds. Is this a giant head and shoulders reversal? I've mentioned this before and I will address it again. In terms of Elliott Wave, I am evaluating this current bullish swing as a subwave 1 of the larger degree 5.
Let's begin with the head and shoulders. I keep getting questions about it, and my evaluation is this: Within the context of the BIG picture, counter trend chart patterns carry little weight. I didn't learn this lesson from a book. If you lost as much money as I have shorting strong markets on these types of patterns, then you would have a better understanding. The underlying structure of this market is bullish. To add to that argument, the head and shoulders has appeared within a broader Wave 4 which means there is a higher likelihood for a Wave 5 to unfold which can take this market into the 350s.
Now in terms of wave counts, I am labeling this move as a subwave 1 of the larger 5. This means a subwave 2 is likely to follow which can lead price back to the mid 280s. This is NOT a prediction, just a possibility based on the proportion of this up swing. As long as price does not fall below the 270s, this market will remain poised to break the 315 resistance, even if a minor retracement gets in the way. That is why I see no reason to adjust my current long position.
In summary, do not be distracted by chart patterns and/or opinions of others if they are not in line with the bigger picture. In order to PROVE a "head and shoulders" is in place, support levels need to be broken and so far they hold. Also the bullish structures that are in place, continue to be untested, which implies strength. Remember financial markets are fractal in nature and this means not all information is weighted equally. In the context of a strong market, bearish reversals or signals on smaller time frames carry less weight. Price will have to make some serious moves lower in order to prove that a real change is taking place. Listen to the market.
I'm wondering if you closed your eth position or not?
Trying to figure out if the bottom is gonna fallout on btc (double top) or if this is one of the "higher low" pullbacks you have been teaching us about (leading to a higher high and bringing eth with it). Any thoughts?
MarcPMarkets
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@PositiveVibe, I'm still long. I have not adjusted my position at all. If this market is going to fall apart, it needs to start showing signs of that. It is very hesitant, and they may have something to do with the BCH party going on at the moment, but as long as supports hold, I don't see any reason to get out yet. If anything, I will adjust my stop and update my recent analysis with that information.
HenrikBoyander
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Hi, trading at 305.75 right now - if not already long, would you recommend to stay out, buy on dips? or??
Thanks in advance,
Henrik
MarcPMarkets
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@HenrikBoyander, well buying the pull back is in line with the broader bullish trend. It's a matter of waiting for the next support and using the reversal there to time your entry. Watch the mid 280s. If 279 is broken, then stay out because it would mean the consolidation is more likely to continue at that point.
What do you think about one opening a LONG at current levels?
How strong is the probability of a pullback to subwave 2?
Appreciate it!
MarcPMarkets
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@hodl-on, the subwave 2 is unfolding now, so no reason to jump into that. See if price can retest the mid 280s or low 290s and wait for a reversal. You may not get the bottom of the move, but at least you know that buyers are with you.
RfriendRFriend
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Looks like no more 240 Support.
MarcPMarkets
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@RfriendRFriend, for now no. 263 is the key level. If that breaks, then the likelihood of the 240 retest increases.
DoYouMine
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Hey hey! Thanks... I've been looking at 288 entrance and this helps that confidence level! :)
I'm wondering if you closed your eth position or not?
Trying to figure out if the bottom is gonna fallout on btc (double top) or if this is one of the "higher low" pullbacks you have been teaching us about (leading to a higher high and bringing eth with it). Any thoughts?